Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while the U.S. GDP data showed a rebound in the second quarter, this was primarily due to a slowdown in imports following the implementation of tariffs, suggesting that the underlying structure of GDP growth is not ideal [1] Economic Indicators - The current core economic indicators in the U.S., including consumption and investment growth rates, reflect a deceleration in economic momentum [1] - It is anticipated that U.S. consumer spending and private investment growth rates will continue to face downward pressure due to the ongoing impact of Trump's tariff policies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

Group 1: Urea Futures - The urea futures price soared on August 19, with the main contract rising by 62 yuan, or 3.53%, to close at 1789 yuan. The surge was mainly due to the unexpectedly high tender offer for urea imports by India's IPL company [3]. - On the supply side, the daily output of the urea industry remained at a high level of 190,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 50 tons on August 5), the total enterprise inventory climbed to 917,300 tons (a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons on July 30), and the production enterprise operating rate was 84.93% (a week - on - week increase of 1.58%), indicating high supply elasticity [3]. - On the demand side, it showed the characteristics of "weak domestic demand and uncertain exports". The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in North and Central China increased slowly, the raw material inventory could be used for about 7 days, and the purchasing willingness was low. Agricultural demand entered a seasonal off - season, and the grass - roots stocking willingness was lacking. Although the export port inspection policy was relaxed, the actual order conversion had not increased significantly [3]. - There are differences in the market regarding the subsequent trend. The bearish view believes that urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the abundant supply pattern remains unchanged, expecting a weakening oscillation. The cautiously optimistic group points out that the current price is not high, the room for continuous decline is limited, and although one should not be overly optimistic about the upside, the export theme may still ferment [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures - News: Li Qiang proposed to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies and stabilize market expectations. Many securities brokerage business departments saw a peak in customer consultations [7]. - Operation: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation on a platform [11]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The fundamentals are relatively strong as steel mills' profitability has improved, leading to high pig iron production. Also, under the call against involution, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Technically, it continued to adjust today, and it should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation in the near future [15]. Group 5: Glass - The macro - environment has improved and is continuously strengthening under the recovery expectation. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market drive mainly comes from the domestic economy [19][20]. - Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Group 6: Methanol - Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased slightly due to a small amount of re - exports and ship departures, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [22].

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin stated that the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is "too high" and that a 50 basis point rate cut is feasible due to an inverted yield curve [1] - Sumerlin emphasized that the housing market is the weakest part of the U.S. economy [1] - He does not believe there is an issue with the size of the Federal Reserve's staff, but rather that the "setup is completely wrong" [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin mentioned that the problem lies in "redundancy" within the Federal Reserve [2] - He is noted to have been a former official during the George W. Bush administration and is reportedly being considered for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [2]

Inflation Trends - The U.S. July CPI growth rate slightly decreased to 0.20% month-on-month from 0.29% in June, primarily due to falling energy prices, while the year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%[6] - Core CPI month-on-month growth increased from 0.23% in June to 0.32% in July, exceeding market expectations of 0.29%, with year-on-year growth rising from 2.9% to 3.1%[6] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 86% to 94%, with an anticipated total cut of 60 basis points for the year[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in September, with potential cuts in October and December[1] Core Inflation Components - Core goods prices remained stable month-on-month, while core service prices saw a significant rebound, with core services month-on-month growth rising from 0.21% to 0.48%[6] - Rent, which accounts for nearly 35% of the CPI, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.27%, returning to pre-pandemic levels[6] Employment and Economic Outlook - Non-farm employment growth has recently declined, influenced by both demand slowdown and reduced immigrant labor supply, while the unemployment rate remains low historically[1] - The inflation rate is expected to rebound in August and September, with projections indicating a year-on-year CPI growth of 2.9% to 3%[6]

Core Viewpoint - The 3.0% annualized GDP growth in Q2 2025 appears strong but is misleading, as it is significantly influenced by a sharp decline in imports, which artificially inflates the GDP figure without indicating real domestic production and consumption growth [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The more reliable indicator of economic health, "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers," shows only a 1.2% growth in Q2 2025, down from 1.9% in Q1 2025, indicating underlying economic weakness despite the headline GDP figure [5][6]. - Alaska's economic performance, which often serves as an early indicator for the U.S. economy, shows consecutive declines in real GDP for 2023 and 2024 (-1.4% and -0.1% respectively), with a further slight decline of 0.4% in Q1 2025 [6][7]. Inflation and Employment - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July 2025, with core CPI increasing by 3.1%, suggesting inflation is under control; however, the job market is cooling, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [7][10]. - Labor force participation has decreased to 62.2%, indicating potential long-term challenges in the employment sector [7]. Bond Market Signals - The yield curve remains inverted, with the 3-month Treasury yield exceeding the 10-year yield, typically signaling market expectations of an economic slowdown or recession [10][12]. - The total U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, constituting 121% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 10.7% of government spending, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [12][13]. Stock Market and Sector Performance - Despite the cautious signals from the bond market, the stock market remains buoyant, with Apple reporting Q3 revenues of $94 billion and a 12% year-on-year increase in earnings per share, driven by the AI sector's strong performance [12][14]. - However, the overall performance of other industries remains lackluster, suggesting that the stock market's optimism may not be broadly supported across sectors [14]. Alternative Assets - Gold has gained popularity as a safe-haven asset, with central banks purchasing 166 tons in Q2 2025, and 95% of reserve managers expect to continue increasing their gold holdings [14][16]. - The market for stablecoins, which reached a valuation of $220 billion in April 2025, is also noteworthy, as it may disrupt traditional banking and international currency dynamics [14]. Conclusion - The apparent 3% GDP growth is more of a superficial achievement rather than a sign of robust recovery, with underlying economic indicators and early warning signs from Alaska suggesting potential challenges ahead [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's assertion that tariffs are sending billions to the U.S. economy is misleading, as the burden of these tariffs falls primarily on American importers and consumers rather than foreign entities [2][6][10] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - In FY 2023, U.S. tariff revenue reached approximately $79.3 billion, nearly double the average before 2018, but this revenue is paid by U.S. importers and ultimately passed on to consumers [2] - Tariffs have been shown to protect certain domestic industries, such as a 50% increase in U.S. washing machine production post-tariff, but this has resulted in higher consumer prices, with washing machines costing an average of $86 more [6][8] Employment and Manufacturing - Despite claims of a manufacturing revival due to tariffs, U.S. manufacturing jobs actually decreased by nearly 40,000 in 2019, contradicting the narrative presented by Trump [4] - The high tariffs have led to retaliatory measures from trading partners, significantly reducing U.S. agricultural exports and resulting in historically high agricultural subsidy expenditures [6][8] Political Strategy - Trump's use of tariffs appears to be a political strategy, framing them as a means to extract money from foreign entities while simultaneously preparing to blame the judiciary if tariffs are overturned [8][10] - The narrative surrounding tariffs serves as a tool for political leverage, especially in the context of upcoming negotiations and elections [10] Public Perception and Consequences - The public may overlook the economic implications of tariffs, continuing to bear the costs at retail outlets while potentially losing jobs in export sectors [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated negative impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy has not yet materialized, leading to questions about the accuracy of economists' predictions regarding economic downturns due to tariffs [1][4][6]. Economic Impact of Tariffs - Economists predict that tariffs will ultimately be borne by consumers, leading to inflation and reduced consumer spending, which could result in a recession [3][4]. - Current economic indicators show signs of stagnation, with growth slowing and inflation rising, attributed to multiple factors rather than solely the tariffs [5][6]. Quantitative Analysis - The Yale Budget Lab forecasts a 0.5 percentage point reduction in U.S. economic growth due to tariffs, equating to a loss of approximately $150 billion, or $1,000 per household annually [6][7]. - Despite the tariffs, the U.S. economy remains relatively stable, with the stock market reaching new highs, partly due to advancements in artificial intelligence [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is mitigated by the country's diverse economy, where imports constitute only 11% of GDP, and the strength of the service sector [9][12]. - The overall effect of tariffs on inflation is evident, with prices for certain goods rising while others, like gasoline, have decreased due to global economic pressures [10][12]. Long-term Considerations - The full economic effects of tariffs will take time to manifest, and the situation may worsen as tariffs continue to be implemented [12][14]. - The challenges posed by tariffs extend beyond immediate economic losses, potentially undermining foundational aspects of U.S. growth such as trade, immigration, and innovation [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant economic pain in the U.S. due to the implementation of tariffs, with economists warning of a potential long-term erosion of the economy rather than an immediate collapse [1][2] - The tariffs, effective from August 7, have already begun to show detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, with reports indicating stagnation in job growth and rising inflation pressures since the introduction of the tariffs in April [1][2] - The uncertainty created by the tariffs is affecting both consumers and businesses, leading to a slowdown in economic activity, as noted by experts who compare the situation to sand in gears, gradually impeding the economy [2] Group 2 - The tariffs have led to a significant increase in costs for nearly all goods entering the U.S., disrupting the global trade landscape and potentially leading to further inflation and reduced economic growth [2] - Despite the current domestic impact being milder than expected, evidence suggests that the tariffs are slowly re-triggering inflation and dragging down U.S. economic growth rates [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 shows an annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of 2.6% and Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted GDP amount for Q2 is $5.9 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth of 3% [1] - The GDP growth rate is positioned as the 5th highest in the last 14 quarters, indicating a relatively strong performance [1] Group 2: GDP Composition - Personal consumption accounts for approximately 68% of GDP, private investment around 18%, government spending about 17%, and net exports at -3% [2] - Retail sales in June reached $720 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a cumulative total of $4.2 trillion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [2] - Core retail sales, which make up about three-quarters of total sales, amounted to $533 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - The reduction in trade deficit contributed significantly to GDP growth, with Q2 trade deficit shrinking from $3,906 billion in Q1 to $1,921 billion in Q2, a decrease of 51% [4] - Q2 exports totaled $846.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while imports decreased by 2% [4] - Private investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year rate of -15.6% in Q2, contributing negatively to GDP [6] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - July saw only 70,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below expectations, with previous months' figures revised downwards [5] - The unemployment rate, while low at 4.2%, is showing signs of a potential increase, indicating underlying labor market weaknesses [5] - The labor market's performance is critical as it reflects the overall economic health and consumer spending capacity [5] Group 5: Economic Challenges - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to negatively impact personal consumption, private investment, and net exports in the short term [3] - The overall economic growth appears to be uneven, with concerns about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory [4] - The real estate market is cooling, with new home sales down 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the housing sector [6]