Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% during the March FOMC meeting[4] - The Fed's internal divisions have slightly narrowed, with only one member voting for a 25 basis point rate cut[4] - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026-2028, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast adjusted to 2.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points[5][17] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed has increased its inflation forecasts, with the 2026 PCE and core PCE both projected at 2.7%, up by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from December 2025[16][17] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remains at 4.4%, while the 2027 forecast has been raised to 4.3%[17] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a rate hike is not the baseline scenario, emphasizing that current rates are at the high end of neutral[20] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones index fell by 1.63% and the Nasdaq index dropped by 1.46%[7][30] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to slightly above 4.25%[30] - Market risk appetite has slightly decreased due to uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation, which could impact inflation and economic growth[30][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the price trends of gold showed a mixed picture. The London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had year - to - date increases of 17.59% and 15.9% respectively, but last week they declined by 1.76% and 0.68% respectively. Short - term gold is weak, affected by factors such as the rising US dollar index and market liquidity risks. In the medium term, geopolitical factors and inflation risks need to be considered, and there is uncertainty. In the long term, de - dollarization is still ongoing, which is a long - term positive factor for gold. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions of gold in the medium term and wait for an opportunity to add positions. For options, a short - term double - buying strategy can be considered [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly View and Strategy - **Market Performance**: In 2026, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had year - to - date increases of 17.59% and 15.9% respectively, and last week they declined by 1.76% and 0.68% respectively [7][28]. - **Inflation**: In June 2022, CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. Core CPI and core PCE also trended down. Since September 2024, CPI has been in a strong oscillation. In February 2026, US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year. Due to geopolitical escalation and a sharp rise in oil prices, inflation may rise again [7][32]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term treasury bond yields have been oscillating downward since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range oscillations in 2024, they continued to decline in 2025 and rebounded in February [7][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand was loose due to rising inventories, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand was in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand structure changed, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand reached a record high. Due to the new gold tax policy, domestic physical gold demand may be affected, and jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [7][54]. - **US Economy**: In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month [7][48]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: On Friday, gold oscillated and adjusted. The US dollar index reached a new high, and risk assets fell, which was negative for gold. In the short term, factors such as market liquidity risk, the US dollar index, and risk - aversion sentiment need to be monitored. In the medium term, geopolitical factors and inflation risks are important. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions of gold in the medium term and wait for an opportunity to add positions. For options, a short - term double - buying strategy can be considered [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Last week, gold oscillated slightly. In 2026, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had year - to - date increases of 17.59% and 15.9% respectively, and last week they declined by 1.76% and 0.68% respectively [22][28]. 3. Inflation - In June 2022, CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE trended down. Since September 2024, CPI has been in a strong oscillation, and core inflation has remained stable. In February 2026, US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous value. Due to geopolitical escalation and a sharp rise in oil prices, inflation may rise again [32]. 4. Interest Rates - US medium - term treasury bond yields have been oscillating downward since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range oscillations in 2024, they continued to decline in 2025 and rebounded in February. The real interest rate continued to decline [37][42]. 5. US Economy - In the fourth quarter of 2026, US GDP increased 2.23% year - on - year, down 0.1% from 2.33%. In February 2026, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, down 0.2%, and the service PMI was 56.1, up 2.3%. In February 2026, non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage rose 0.3% month - on - month [45][48]. 6. Gold Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, the global gold supply and demand was loose due to rising inventories, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand was in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand structure changed, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand reached a record high. Due to the new gold tax policy, domestic physical gold demand may be affected, and jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [54]. 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index No detailed analysis of the impact on gold is provided, only relevant data charts are presented. 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Shanghai Gold mostly has a premium [85]. 9. Gold Basis No information provided. 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio No information provided.

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, significantly below the market expectation of 55,000[4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is 6,000, down from 126,000 in January[4] - Private sector employment fell from 95,000 in January to -61,000 in February[4] Sector-Specific Impacts - The construction industry saw job losses of 11,000, while the leisure and hospitality sector lost 27,000 jobs in February[4] - Healthcare and education services employment dropped from 129,000 in January to -34,000 in February due to a strike involving 31,000 workers in California[4] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 12,000, contributing to a total goods-producing job loss of 25,000[4] Wage and Unemployment Trends - Despite job losses, wages maintained a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase from 3.7% in January to 3.8% in February[4] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.28% to 4.44%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%[4] - Labor force participation rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Due to the noisy employment data, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will not initiate rate cuts in the near term[4] - The Fed is expected to cut rates once by 25 basis points in June as a political gesture under the new chair[4] - The tightening of dollar liquidity is likely to increase as inflation expectations rise due to higher oil prices[4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy's largest sector experienced its fastest growth in 3.5 years during February, driven by a reduction in the negative impact of high tariffs and an increase in sales and new orders [1] Economic Expansion - The expansion in February marks a significant recovery, indicating improved economic conditions as tariffs' adverse effects diminish [1] - Sales and new orders have shown a notable rise, contributing to the overall growth of the economy [1]

Core Points - The article discusses President Trump's State of the Union address, where he claims the U.S. is entering a "golden age" under his leadership [1] - Trump highlights economic achievements, including a significant drop in inflation and rapid income growth, asserting that the economy is thriving [1] - The address is viewed as a critical factor influencing the 2026 midterm elections and a direct indicator of U.S. domestic and foreign policy for the next three years [1] Economic Performance - Trump boasts about the U.S. economy's unprecedented growth and the respect the country has regained on the global stage [1] - He emphasizes that inflation is sharply declining and incomes are rising quickly, indicating a robust economic environment [1] Immigration and Border Security - Trump praises his administration's success in preventing illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, claiming the strongest and safest border in U.S. history [1] - The focus on border security is a significant aspect of his address, reflecting ongoing concerns about immigration policies [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, exceeding market expectations and indicating strong labor market performance [1] - Following the positive employment data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been postponed to July [1] Employment Data - The January non-farm employment figure of 130,000 jobs reflects a robust growth trend in the U.S. labor market [1] - This strong performance in job creation suggests that the U.S. economy is maintaining stability in the labor sector [1] Market Reactions - The positive employment data has led to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly concerning interest rate cuts [2] - Economists interpret the delay in rate cuts as a sign that the Federal Reserve may be cautious due to ongoing inflation concerns [1][2] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive employment figures, the U.S. economy continues to face challenges such as global trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks [1] - Future decisions by the Federal Reserve will need to consider these various economic pressures [1]

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the highest increase since April 2025[7] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous rate, indicating a new low since September 2025[7] - The labor force participation rate was 62.5%, slightly above the previous value of 62.4%[7] Inflation Data - The January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations and the previous value, continuing a three-month decline since September 2025[3] - The core CPI remained stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, matching market expectations, while the overall CPI month-on-month increase was only 0.2%[3][4] - The "super core" CPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.59%, significantly higher than the previous month's 0.23%, indicating persistent service inflation[4][6] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm report, asset prices were volatile, with U.S. stocks initially rising before declining, and bond yields fluctuating[9] - After the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts fluctuated, with the implied number of cuts for 2026 rising from 2.36 to 2.53 times[10] Economic Outlook - The combination of strong employment data and weak CPI suggests a complex economic landscape, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy in the short term[11] - Significant changes in policy are anticipated post the May 2026 Federal Reserve chair transition, which may open up more room for rate cuts later in the year[12] - The market currently anticipates approximately 2.5 rate cuts for 2026, aligning with economic fundamentals but potentially underestimating challenges to the Fed's independence[12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the USD index (DXY) is experiencing weak fluctuations around the 96.65 level, with market participants adopting a cautious stance ahead of key economic data releases, particularly the January non-farm payroll report and CPI inflation data [1][3] - The December retail sales data in the US showed a total of $735 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, significantly below the previous value of 3.3% and market expectations, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [1][3] - The overall US economic growth remains moderate, with no significant downturn signs, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement limited easing measures rather than aggressive stimulus policies, which constrains the downside potential of the USD [3] Group 2 - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and changes in the external environment are intensifying pressure on the USD, while improved global market risk appetite is reducing demand for safe-haven USD [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the USD index is in a short-term weak consolidation phase, with the price around 96.65, and the 5-day moving average acting as resistance while the 10-day moving average provides short-term support [3][4] - The recent K-line patterns show small bearish and doji candles, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces, but overall pressure is evident [4] Group 3 - The January non-farm payroll report is crucial for determining the future direction of the USD index, as it reflects the health of the US economy and labor market, influencing market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4][5] - Market expectations suggest that if non-farm job additions exceed forecasts or the unemployment rate declines, it will strengthen the Fed's stance on maintaining current policies, potentially pushing the USD index to the resistance range of 96.90-97.20 [4] - Conversely, if the data is weak, with job additions falling short of expectations or an increase in the unemployment rate, it will heighten market bets on rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the USD towards support levels of 96.40 or even 96.20 [4]

Core Insights - The December 2025 retail sales data in the U.S. indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending momentum at year-end, with retail sales showing a month-on-month growth of 0%, a sharp decline from the previous month's 0.6% increase, and below the market expectation of 0.4% growth [1][3] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales showed a month-on-month stagnation, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending, a key driver of U.S. economic growth [1][3] - Year-on-year retail sales growth was recorded at 2.4%, which is lower than the consumer price index's year-on-year increase of 2.7%, suggesting that real consumption growth may have stalled [3][4] Group 2: Sectoral Analysis - There is a divergence in consumer spending, with categories such as automobiles, furniture, electronics, and clothing experiencing month-on-month declines, while categories like building materials, gasoline, and food and beverages saw growth [3][4] - High-income households may be supported by rising stock markets, but low-income groups, reliant on wage growth, are showing weaker spending performance [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the retail sales data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping by 6 basis points to 4.14% and the 30-year yield down by 7 basis points to 4.78%, reflecting heightened expectations of economic slowdown and speculation about potential early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that a shift in monetary policy is not imminent, with concerns about persistent high inflation and cautious optimism regarding the current policy rate's ability to bring inflation back to the 2% target [4] - Future economic data will be crucial in determining the appropriateness of current policy positions, with potential rate cuts being considered only if inflation decreases alongside a significant weakening in the labor market [4] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The weak December retail data highlights the fragile foundation of the U.S. consumer recovery, particularly among middle and low-income groups [4] - The combination of high inflation and a labor market that has not yet shown significant cooling will keep the Federal Reserve's policy path highly dependent on subsequent economic data [4]

Economic Overview - The current unemployment rate in the U.S. stands at 3.6%, showing little change from 3.5% in February 2020, indicating a near full employment scenario where only about 4 out of 100 job seekers remain unemployed [1] - Despite low unemployment, the U.S. faces a high turnover rate, with 4.4 million people leaving their jobs in February, driven primarily by low wages [3] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - In February, the wage growth rate in the U.S. was 5.1%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to 7.9%, indicating that real wage growth is negative [3] - Housing prices have increased significantly, with many areas seeing over a 20% rise, and rents have also risen by more than 15% [3] Labor Market Conditions - There are over 11 million job openings in the U.S., which supports the high turnover as employees seek better-paying positions [3] - Companies are under pressure to raise wages due to the high number of job vacancies, but their ability to do so is limited by rising production costs [3][6] Inflation Control Challenges - The U.S. government, including President Biden, faces challenges in controlling inflation without reducing wages, especially with midterm elections approaching [6] - The Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation through interest rate hikes is critical, as failure to control inflation could lead to complex economic issues [6] Domestic Economic Sentiment - The domestic economic situation in China shows signs of distress, with declines in the A-share market and the renminbi's depreciation, indicating capital outflow [7] - The Chinese regulatory authorities are maintaining a patient approach, refraining from immediate stimulus measures despite market downturns, suggesting a wait-and-see strategy for economic stabilization [7]