The domestic market has sourced on renewed investor confidence, largely propelled by interest in banking, financial and tech stocks. After a flat opening at 81,274.79, Sensex climbed 623.11 pts or 0.77 per cent to 81,830.28 at 1.32 pm, hitting an intraday high of 81,842.80. Nifty 50 gained 181.70 pts or 0.73 per cent to 25,075.95, close to the day’s high of 25,085.65 against the previous close of 24,894.25.The midcap segment outperformed the smallcap index, gaining 0.50 per cent, while the smallcap index sa ...

高盛集团衍生品团队表示，10月波动加剧不仅仅是巧合。随着投资者关注财报、分析师活动日和管理层 对下一年的指引，这种压力会加剧交易量和波动性。 该行衍生品团队的数据显示，从历史上看，标普500指数已实现的波动率从8月到10月增长了26%；即将 到来的财报季通常会产生一年中最大的财报日波动。该团队发现，未来4个月内，除财报收益之外，还 有450多个重大事件可能推动美国、欧洲和亚洲股市大幅波动。这些事件包括Victoria's Secret的10月中 旬时装秀、LVMH在巴黎时装周期间的一场迪奥(Dior)秀、特斯拉公司的年度股东大会、凯悦酒店集 团、家得宝(Home Depot)和Dollar Tree的企业活动。这些事件都可能成为买入波动性的候选因素。 格隆汇9月26日｜高盛表示，自1928年以来，标普500指数10月的历史波动比其他月份高出约20%。近几 十年来，这一幅度甚至更高，因为第四季通常会出现企业层面的大量催化剂。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with mixed outlooks for the S&P 500 as it continues its rally [1] Group 1: Analyst Perspectives - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson highlights risks from weak labor data and slower Fed actions but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting the S&P 500 could rise by 9% to 7,200 points by mid-2026 [2] - JPMorgan warns that the market's resilience may not endure against soft economic indicators, suggesting equities could reassess valuations once the Fed resumes easing [3] - Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus acknowledges a potential near-term dip post-rate decision but expects any weakness to be temporary due to the overall strength of the U.S. economy [4] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Strategists express concerns that a modest rate cut may not sufficiently address signs of economic slowdown, particularly in the labor market, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [5] - Despite these concerns, the S&P 500 maintains a bullish trend, primarily driven by gains in technology stocks [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with market participants anticipating a stable stock market ahead of the CPI data release on Thursday. However, there are risks if inflation data shows unexpected increases [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The logic behind the expected rate cut is straightforward: stagnation in U.S. job growth necessitates economic stimulus [1]. - Weak employment data released on Friday has reinforced the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted mildly to the employment data, with U.S. stocks experiencing a slight decline and the fear index rising slightly, yet remaining below the critical level of 20 [1]. - Since June, the fear index has mostly stayed below the 20 threshold, indicating a relatively stable market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Options Trading Insights - Options traders are betting on a 0.7% two-way volatility for the S&P 500 index following the CPI release, which is lower than the average actual volatility of 1% over the past year [1]. - The current trading logic may overlook significant risks, particularly if inflation data significantly exceeds expectations [1]. Group 4: Expert Commentary - Eric Teal, Chief Investment Officer at Comerica Wealth Management, notes that the current balance in the market is delicate, and any extremely positive or negative data could alter market outlooks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar faces increasing unfavorable factors, with short-term stock market volatility potentially acting as an additional obstacle. However, the overall expectation is that the recent gains of the US dollar may not be sustainable, and market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut remain, which could exert downward pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1 - The fair value estimate for USD/CAD has slightly increased to 1.3622, up from a lower level at the previous week's close [1] - The biggest risk for the Canadian dollar this week is the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which, if stronger than expected, could reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, thereby negatively impacting the Canadian dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in the commodity and bond markets, particularly the surge in gold and silver prices, driven by factors such as the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and the diminishing hedging function of long-term government bonds [1][3][5]. - Gold has recently broken the $3,500 mark, reaching a historical high, while silver has surpassed $40, marking a 14-year peak [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a sell-off, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets, including the U.S., U.K., and France, reaching multi-year highs, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the existing financial system [4][5]. Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate is approaching 3%, and the potential for a significant economic impact from this inflation may not be fully realized until the fourth quarter [3]. - The U.K.'s current deficit as a percentage of GDP is comparable to historical periods of significant upheaval, such as the French Revolution [6]. - The article suggests that as governments accumulate excessive debt and lose the trust of major debt buyers, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a reliable asset that does not depend on government promises [8]. Group 3 - The articles indicate that September is historically a poor month for stock and bond markets, with global government bonds over ten years showing a median decline of 2% in September over the past decade [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value of European stocks remains strong, supported by sectors such as luxury goods, pharmaceuticals, and green energy, which possess significant pricing power and competitive advantages [19][20]. - The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is strategically reallocating its investments, betting on European stocks outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade based on valuation assessments [21].

Core Viewpoint - The overall profit growth of major indices, including the A-share and ChiNext Composite Index, has significantly declined compared to Q1, indicating a potential downturn in corporate earnings [1] Industry Summary - Profits of industrial enterprises above designated size peaked at 9.3 trillion in 2021 and are projected to drop to 7.4 trillion in 2024, with a 1.7% year-on-year decline in profits observed in the first seven months of this year [1] - State-owned enterprises reported a revenue growth rate of -0.2% and a profit growth rate of -3.1% for the first half of 2025, reflecting a challenging economic environment [1] Market Dynamics - The current stock market bull run is primarily driven by capital inflows rather than improvements in corporate earnings, with significant institutional funds shifting from the bond market to equities [1] - Despite increased volatility in the stock market, many bond market investors maintain high expectations for equities and are patiently waiting for favorable conditions [1] Bond Market Outlook - The company maintains a bullish outlook on the bond market for the second half of the year, forecasting a 10-year government bond yield between 1.6% and 1.8%, with a potential challenge to 1.6% within the year [1] - The three to five-year capital bonds are considered to have high cost-effectiveness, with a recommendation to value yields above 2% for 30-year government bonds and five-year capital bonds [1] ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best performance in terms of controlling drawdown since the recent bond market adjustment, with minimal trading discounts and stable net value [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its S&P 500 index targets for the end of 2025 from 5500 to 6100 and for the end of 2026 from 6100 to 6800, reflecting better-than-expected health of the U.S. economy and corporate sector [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - UBS indicates that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has not materialized, and confidence in fiscal support along with a weaker dollar has alleviated profit pressures [1] - The combination of U.S. economic growth and inflation may worsen, leading to reduced profit growth expectations and increased market volatility [1] - UBS expects a short-term market decline, potentially remaining below current levels until the end of 2025, followed by a significant rebound in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Upside Risks - Surprises in earnings from technology and related companies could push the S&P 500 index to 7200 [2] - Companies affected by tariffs may maintain profit margins despite increased tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation may be less than UBS currently anticipates [2] - Consumer spending continues despite a decline in real disposable income [2] - U.S. capital expenditures and industrial production may rebound due to domestic production repatriation, foreign direct investment, and new technology applications [2] - The Federal Reserve may adopt more accommodative policies in response to tariffs than UBS expects [2] - A weaker dollar and stronger global economic growth could exceed UBS's current expectations [2] Group 3: Downside Risks - Increased tariffs could trigger retaliatory tariffs [3] - Companies that previously hoarded labor may begin large-scale layoffs, harming consumer income and spending as excess savings deplete [3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be less than expected, negatively impacting market sentiment [3] - Rising import costs could lead to a significant decline in company profit margins from high levels [3] - Confidence in the positive growth impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act, industrial repatriation, and increased direct investment may diminish [3]

Group 1 - The South Korean won has fallen below the 1400 mark against the US dollar for the first time since May 19 [1] - The current exchange rate is 1,398.82 for selling and 1,399.16 for buying, with a daily range of 1,391.63 to 1,400.77 [3] - The 52-week range for the won is between 1,302.94 and 1,488.32, with the previous close at 1,392.07 and the opening at 1,392.70 [3] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop before rebounding [4] - The index reached a high of 40,910.47 and a low of -159.35, reflecting a decrease of 0.39% [6] - The trading volume was 580 million shares, with a fluctuation of 1.82 trillion, representing a change of 1.16% [6] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index turned negative, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices saw increases, with over 2,900 stocks rising across the market [8]

Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Market Impact - Trump's announcement on July 4 regarding unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% has intensified trade tensions, disrupting previous market expectations of easing trade negotiations [2] - Historical data shows that a 10% tariff implemented in April led to a nearly 19% drop in the S&P 500 index, indicating that a potential 70% tariff could have a significantly greater negative impact on the market [2] - The imposition of higher tariffs is expected to increase inflation risks in the U.S. economy and further disrupt supply chains, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2: Negotiation Stalemates with Trade Partners - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU, Japan, and India are facing significant challenges, with no breakthroughs achieved, leading to increased market pessimism [3][4] - The EU has indicated that failure to reach an agreement may result in retaliatory measures, while Japan's Prime Minister has labeled U.S. tariffs as a "national crisis" [3][4] - India's response to U.S. tariffs has been to propose retaliatory tariffs, emphasizing that any trade agreement must align with its national interests, further complicating U.S.-India trade relations [4] Group 3: Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Trump's encouragement for investors to buy stocks has had a diminishing effect, as market participants are increasingly focusing on fundamental analysis rather than presidential statements [5] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates has been influenced by Trump's comments, with Goldman Sachs predicting a rate cut in September due to the lesser-than-expected impact of tariffs on inflation [6] - Adjustments in market expectations regarding Fed policy are affecting bond markets, foreign exchange rates, and corporate financing costs, which could have broader implications for investment decisions [6] Group 4: Market Uncertainty and Strategic Recommendations - The unpredictability of Trump's policies and trade negotiations creates a complex market environment, with potential repercussions for global economic growth and corporate profitability [7] - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with trade policies, particularly in sectors like automotive, steel, and electronics that are heavily impacted [8] - Companies should proactively adapt to a high-tariff environment by optimizing supply chains and exploring alternative markets, while policymakers are encouraged to foster multilateral trade negotiations to stabilize the global economy [8]