Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the current weakness in CPI and PPI, economic data such as social financing stock growth, core CPI, and real GDP have improved, indicating that the economy is stabilizing and inflation indicators should not be over - emphasized [3] - Bond yields may rise ahead of economic recovery, and when the market doubts the economic fundamentals, bond yields continue to rise, but when the market generally expects economic recovery, the yield increase may be near the end [5] - Inflation data may also lag behind bond yields, as shown by historical examples in 2009 and 2020 [5] - Given the improvement in some economic data compared to 2024 and the historical pattern of bond yields rising ahead of economic and inflation indicators, bond yields are expected to rise [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Economic Data Improvement - Social financing stock year - on - year increased from +7.8% in November 2024 to +9.0% in July 2025 [3] - Government - funded expenditure cumulative year - on - year increased from - 20.5% in April 2024 to +31.7% in July 2025 [3] - Core CPI monthly year - on - year increased from - 0.1% in February 2025 to +0.9% in July 2025 [7] - Real GDP quarterly year - on - year increased from +4.6% in Q3 2024 to +5.2% in Q2 2025 [7] - The monthly average of social consumer goods retail year - on - year in 2025 was +4.98%, significantly higher than the +3.28% monthly average in 2024 [3] Bond Yield and Economic Data Deviation - In 2020, when economic data was weak in June, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.50% on April 29 to 3.08% on July 9, with a cumulative increase of 58BP, showing a deviation from economic data. In November 2020, economic data improved, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had reached a high of 3.35% and then started to decline [4] Inflation Data Lagging - In 2009, after the 4 - trillion policy was introduced in November 2008, CPI and PPI continued to decline until July 2009, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had risen from 2.67% to 3.53% in August 2009, with a cumulative increase of 86BP [5] - In November 2020, inflation data was at a low level, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had significantly risen to 3.35% [5]