Conference Call 3Q25-Results Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statement This presentation may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities law that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements are only predictions based upon our current expectations and projections about possible or assumed future results of our business, financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, plans and objectives. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminol ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BIM, Migros, and Sok, with target prices set at TRY 665 for Migros (down 5%), and unchanged for BIM and Sok [1][3]. Core Insights - The actual revenue growth rate for all participants has been declining since Q3 2024, primarily driven by weaker traffic data. However, companies are expected to achieve better profit margins and cash flow in the coming quarters due to operational leverage [1]. - Same-store sales (LFL) are projected to decline in Q1 2025 due to weakened consumer purchasing power and enhanced base effects. Promotional and marketing activities continue to see high investment, with real revenue growth adjusted for food inflation showing a downward trend since Q3 2024 [1][2]. - Migros has shown slightly better performance with market share growth, while Sok is gradually recovering from a weaker base effect. BIM faces challenges in revenue growth due to low inflation rates for basic consumer goods, although an increase in product lines may support basket growth [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profitability Trends - The industry gross margin trend remains stable to slightly pressured due to increased promotional efforts. Sales cost pressures are expected to be higher in Q1 2025, but operational leverage is anticipated to gradually alleviate this [2]. - EBITDA margins for Sok are expected to increase by 20 basis points year-on-year in Q1 2025, while BIM and Migros are projected to see a cautious decrease of 20 basis points [2][30]. - Cash flow volatility is expected to persist, influenced by sporadic factors and proactive working capital management. Q1 2025 cash flow volatility is attributed to holiday payment impacts and accounts receivable delays [2][35]. Company-Specific Insights - BIM is recognized as the most resilient brand in the Turkish consumer sector, with a positive outlook on the growing scale of its FILE business. The increase in SKU count to 1,000 is expected to support higher basket sizes in the remaining years [3][14]. - Migros continues to gain market share, benefiting from store network expansion and promotional activities. The company is expected to stabilize growth moving forward [14][15]. - Sok is anticipated to recover market share from a low base, with a slight improvement in sales performance [14][15]. Financial Estimates and Adjustments - The report updates the 2024 Turkish food retail model, adjusting estimates based on revised inflation data and store expansion expectations. For BIM, EBITDA margin estimates have been slightly lowered due to ongoing operational expenditure pressures [52]. - Migros is expected to see a slight decline in EBITDA margins due to operational expenditure pressures, while Sok's EBITDA margin expectations remain intact [54][55]. - The financial outlook for each company includes projected sales, EBITDA, and net profit figures for 2025 and beyond, reflecting adjustments based on market conditions and operational challenges [56][59].