[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月01日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伟业 S0630526020001 cwy@longone.com.cn [把握商品周期与科技赋能主线，关注油 Table_NewTitle] 价变量 ——资产配置周报（2026/02/23-2026/02/27） [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。2月27日当周，全球股市涨跌不一，日股、A股领涨；主要商品期货中 黄金、原油、铜、铝小幅收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，人 ...

目前已经复工的工地。 2月24日节后第一天上班，广州房屋建筑工地也将开始迎来第一波复工复产热潮，市住建部门表示将全 力保障各项目需求，确保全市房屋建筑重点项目将在正月十五前全面复工，预计返岗工人达5万人，冲 刺新年"开门红"。 春节期间，全市有14个项目持续施工，约2.2万名建设者坚守岗位，为节后迅速复工复产奠定基础。节 后全市房屋建筑工地即将迎来第一波复工复产热潮，自2月24日（初八）起，市住建局依托市实名制平 台启动节后用工日监测机制，动态统计工人返岗率。针对返岗进度较慢、工人缺口较大的项目，及时启 动定向调度，全力保障用工需求，为项目加快建设提供人力支撑。 正月二十前，全市预计将有80%的项目复工，23万名建设者重返岗位，施工现场将重现热火朝天的建设 景象；正月二十八过后，其余项目将按计划陆续启动，全面实现复工复产。 市住建部门表示将全力护航项目复工复产，建立服务员"一对一"对接机制，对有复工需求的项目，由服 务员主动靠前，从手续办理到政策疑问，全程负责解答协调，将服务落实到项目，把问题化解在工地一 线。 为确保工地建材供应，住建部门节前主动与混凝土企业对接，了解复产计划，目前混凝土供应已做好充 分准备 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing federal immigration enforcement actions in the Rio Grande Valley are causing significant disruptions in the local construction industry, leading to project delays, labor shortages, and increased costs [1] - The residential construction in Hidalgo County has decreased by approximately 30% in recent months, according to estimates from Valley Land Title's CEO [2] - A report from the American General Contractors Association indicates that about one-third of commercial contractors nationwide have been affected by immigration enforcement in the past six months, which is driving up housing costs and compressing builders' profits [3] Group 2 - The construction industry heavily relies on immigrant labor, with studies showing that immigrants make up over half of the construction workforce in states like Texas, California, New Jersey, and Washington, and an even higher percentage in the Rio Grande Valley [1] - The concrete company 57Concrete reported a 60% decrease in concrete usage from May to November last year, leading to over one-third of its workforce being laid off and the company filing for bankruptcy reorganization [3] - Materiales El Valle, a tile supplier, experienced a loss of $5.3 million in sales and had to lay off employees for the first time in 40 years, while also facing challenges in filling job vacancies [3] Group 3 - The construction quality at projects like Monte Cielo is declining as contractors are forced to hire inexperienced workers due to the arrest of skilled laborers [4] - Community banks are reporting reduced loan demand and tighter standards, which are stifling further investment and causing project delays [3] - Industry organizations are seeking to reduce enforcement on job sites and support the establishment of new non-immigrant visa categories to allow employers to bring in foreign labor if positions remain unfilled for three months [3]

Group 1 - Huanxin Building Materials experienced a 5% decline in stock price, trading at 23.75 yuan per share with a total market capitalization of 49.376 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on November 30, 1993, specializes in cement manufacturing and sales, cement technology services, and related construction materials [1] - The revenue composition of Huanxin Building Materials includes 54.56% from cement sales, 21.54% from concrete sales, 17.22% from aggregate sales, 4.21% from other products, and 2.47% from clinker sales [1] Group 2 - Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund holds 135,000 shares of Huanxin Building Materials, representing 1.19% of the fund's net value, making it the fifth-largest holding [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 168,700 yuan due to the stock's performance [2] - The fund manager, Liu Hong, has been in charge for 4 years and 329 days, with the fund's total asset size at 1.646 billion yuan [2]

Industry Overview Upstream - International oil prices improved compared to last week, and prices of eggs, palm oil, copper, and zinc continued to rise [2] Midstream - PX and urea prices remained high, power plant coal consumption was low, and road asphalt construction was at a low level [3] Downstream - Commercial housing sales in first, second, and third-tier cities declined seasonally, while domestic flight frequencies increased [3] Industry Events Production Industry - The Commercial Spacecraft and Application Industry Chain Co-chain Action Conference announced that China will layout more "space +" future industries, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Group will implement five major projects during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] Service Industry - The State Council issued a work plan to support service consumption, focusing on key and potential areas, and encouraging the improvement of infrastructure for residential services [1] Key Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | 8.5 yuan/kg | 4.28% | | Agriculture | Spot price of palm oil | 9296.0 yuan/ton | 5.30% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 103206.7 yuan/ton | 2.97% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price of zinc | 25280.0 yuan/ton | 4.05% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.2 dollars/barrel | 4.27% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 67.4 dollars/barrel | 3.26% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5314.8 yuan/ton | 4.24% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6905.0 yuan/ton | 3.11% | [34]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 of fiscal 2026 was $556 million, down slightly from the prior year, reflecting lower wallboard and paperboard sales volume, partially offset by higher cement sales volume [11] - Earnings per share were $3.22, down 10% from Q3 of fiscal 2025, primarily due to lower net earnings from wallboard sales volume [11] - Gross profit margin was 28.9%, indicating a stable profitability level despite market challenges [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Heavy materials sector revenue increased by 11%, driven by a 9% increase in cement sales volume and a 22% increase in concrete and aggregates revenue [11] - Aggregate sales volume reached a record 1.6 million tons, up 81%, reflecting a 34% increase in organic aggregate sales volume [13] - Light materials sector revenue decreased by 16% to $203 million, primarily due to lower wallboard and recycled paperboard sales volume [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cement and aggregate sales volumes grew last quarter, supported by federal, state, and local infrastructure spending [8] - Wallboard sales were challenged due to affordability issues in the housing market, with a 5% decline in wallboard sales prices [11][9] - The company announced price increases for cement in most markets for Q1 of calendar 2026, reflecting volume expectations [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain operational flexibility and efficiency through investments in health and safety, cost control, and customer support [3][4] - Strategic projects include the modernization of the Mountain Cement plant and the Duke wallboard facility, expected to lower cost structures and enhance competitive positioning [7] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet while pursuing growth opportunities through disciplined capital allocation [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about infrastructure and non-residential markets as they head into calendar 2026, despite mixed construction environments [19] - The company remains focused on operations rather than predicting demand, emphasizing their ability to manage costs effectively [9] - Management noted that while wallboard pricing has seen some downward trends, they expect stability in pricing due to structural changes in the industry [26] Other Important Information - Operating cash flow increased by 5% to $512 million, with capital spending rising to $295 million, primarily for modernization projects [14] - The company returned nearly $150 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during Q3 [10] - The net debt-to-cap ratio was 48%, with a leverage ratio of 1.8x, providing significant financial flexibility [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is cement demand widespread across markets? - Management indicated that demand is broad-based across markets, with optimism for infrastructure and non-residential markets as they enter calendar 2026 [19] Question: What is driving the margins in cement? - Margins were impacted by slight increases in raw material costs, but maintenance and fuel costs remained largely in line [22] Question: How is wallboard pricing expected to trend? - Wallboard pricing has seen a downward trend, but management expects prices to remain range-bound due to structural changes in the industry [26] Question: What is the impact of winter storms on operations? - The company has prepared facilities for extreme cold temperatures, ensuring operations are ready for winter storms [41] Question: What portion of wallboard demand is from repair and remodel? - Repair and remodel account for about a third of wallboard demand, showing steady growth over the years [38] Question: How is the company managing capital allocation post-bond deal? - The company is focused on balancing growth through M&A and organic projects while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the operational performance of Western Construction (002302.SZ) in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a mixed performance in concrete contract signing and sales volume [2] Group 2 - The company reported a concrete contract signing volume of 41.85 million cubic meters in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.98% [2] - The sales volume for the same period was 15.24 million cubic meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.86% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Xibu Construction (002302.SZ) reported its operational performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, highlighting a mixed performance in concrete contract and sales volumes [1] Group 2 - The concrete contract volume for the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 41.85 million cubic meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.98% [1] - The concrete sales volume for the same period was 15.24 million cubic meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.86% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Western Construction (002302.SZ) reported a decrease in concrete sales volume for the fourth quarter of 2025, amounting to 15.2386 million cubic meters, which represents a year-on-year decline of 5.86% [1]