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造船业大周期来临:订单加速交付 上市船企有望迎业绩拐点
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 05:49
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese shipbuilding industry is experiencing a significant recovery, with the country leading the world in shipbuilding orders and deliveries, indicating a positive trend for the sector's performance in the second half of 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - From January to June 2023, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and backlog accounted for 49.6%, 72.6%, and 53.2% of the global total by deadweight tonnage, respectively, maintaining the world's top position [1]. - The shipbuilding price index has risen continuously, increasing by 3% since the beginning of 2023 and by 33% compared to early 2021, indicating a favorable pricing environment for shipbuilders [2]. - The cumulative revenue of 74 key monitored shipbuilding enterprises reached 137.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, while total profit turned positive at 4.64 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Major shipbuilding companies like China Heavy Industry and China Shipbuilding have reported significant profit improvements, with China Shipbuilding expecting a net profit of 500 million to 600 million yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of approximately 155.43% to 206.51% [5]. - Companies such as Yaxing Anchor Chain and China Marine Defense have shown substantial growth in net profits, with Yaxing reporting a 122.02% increase in the first quarter [4]. - The performance recovery of shipbuilding enterprises is supported by a combination of rising order volumes and declining raw material costs, particularly steel [2][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is expected to see accelerated delivery of new orders starting in 2023, with a projected delivery volume of 17.13 million CGT, 16.88 million CGT, and 14.29 million CGT for the years 2023 to 2025 [1]. - The industry is witnessing a tightening of capacity utilization, with global shipbuilding utilization rates reaching 93.9% in 2021, indicating a robust demand environment [2]. - As the shipbuilding sector recovers, related companies in the upstream and downstream markets are beginning to explore IPO opportunities, reflecting a broader industry revival [6].