造船业景气度复苏
Search documents
中国动力(600482):业绩低于预期,关注少数股权回收进程
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-31 12:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was slightly below expectations, with total revenue of 41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.5% [6]. - The recovery in second-hand ship prices is expected to boost the shipbuilding market, which will positively impact the upstream engine industry [6]. - Recent policy changes regarding port fees for U.S. vessels are seen as a relief for the shipbuilding industry, potentially leading to a return of orders to China [6]. - The company has established a global service network for low-speed engines, which could contribute approximately 1.1 billion yuan in net profit annually if it fully covers maintenance for WinGD products [6]. - The company has terminated the plan to recover minority stakes in China Ship Diesel Engine, which is a core subsidiary, and attention is drawn to the group's future integration plans [6]. - The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 remain unchanged, with expected net profits of 2.1 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23, 15, and 13 [6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 54.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.6% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.05 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [5]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 16.0% in 2025 to 18.9% by 2027 [5]. - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 5.0% in 2025 to 7.8% in 2027 [5].