Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The driving force of the 91 spread may come from the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [1][24] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zhengzhou Sugar 91 Spread First Strengthened and Then Weakened - Since June 2025, the spread between the SR2509 contract and the SR2601 contract (hereinafter referred to as the 91 spread) has first strengthened and then weakened, generally fluctuating within the range of 100 - 200 yuan/ton, with a relatively small fluctuation range [4] - From June to July, the 91 spread strengthened, mainly because the price of the SR2509 contract was stronger. After the expiration of the New York raw sugar 2507 contract, the New York raw sugar price bottomed out and rebounded, and the suppression of the weak expectation on the SR2509 contract weakened. As the SR2507 contract expired, the SR2509 contract became the near-term contract, and as the delivery month approached, the pricing gradually shifted from expectation-based pricing to reality-based pricing. Against the background of a high basis, the price of the SR2509 contract was relatively stronger than that of the SR2601 contract [4] - Since July, the 91 spread has weakened, and the price of the SR2601 contract has been relatively stronger. Starting from July, the anti-involution sentiment in the domestic market has swept through the commodity market, and the prices of agricultural products have also been affected by this sentiment. Most of the funds trading on the macro level choose the far-term contracts. Fundamentally, the delivery of the SR2509 contract is still affected by the beet sugar warehouse receipts. On the one hand, the basis of the SR2509 contract has been repaired to a low level in recent years; on the other hand, the basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was still relatively high, so the room for the basis of the SR2509 contract to continue to weaken is limited [4] 2. The Basis of the SR2509 Contract is at a Low Level Compared to Previous Years, with Limited Potential for Imagination 2.1 Pricing Benchmark of the SR2509 Contract and the SR2601 Contract - The price of the SR2509 contract first declined and then increased. Since May 2025, the spot price in Nanning has fluctuated downward, with a fluctuation range of 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The SR2509 contract first declined and then increased, with a fluctuation range of 5600 - 5930 yuan/ton. The fluctuation range of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis fluctuates within the range of 150 - 400 yuan/ton, showing an overall inverted "V" shape. Since mid-June 2025, the basis of the SR2509 contract has weakened significantly. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, and its absolute level is lower than that before the expiration of the SR2507 contract, with limited potential for imagination [8] - The basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract was relatively high. Since May 2025, the price of the SR2507 contract has fluctuated downward, and the basis has fluctuated within the range of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The average basis in June was 282 yuan/ton, and the average basis in July was 279 yuan/ton. The basis before expiration was generally at a relatively high level. It is believed that the high basis before the expiration of the SR2507 contract is mainly related to the high proportion of beet sugar warehouse receipts [10] - The warehouse receipts mainly consist of beet sugar and Yunnan sugar. On July 29, 2025, the number of registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou sugar was 19,746. Among them, there were about 197 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Guangxi production area, about 2,324 warehouse receipts for cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, 1,824 warehouse receipts for credit from Yunnan factories, 5,000 warehouse receipts for credit from processing sugar factories in the sales area, about 8,706 warehouse receipts for beet sugar in the sales area, and 1,695 warehouse receipts for credit from beet sugar factories in the sales area. The warehouse receipts likely to be delivered are probably the beet sugar in the sales area and the cane sugar from the Yunnan production area, with a quantity of around 14,500 (including the possible warehouse receipts for credit from factories) [12] - The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, and its price increase benefits from the anti-involution sentiment. The pricing of the SR2601 contract is anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. Since late June, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. Fundamentally, after the expiration of the New York raw sugar July contract, the news of Pakistan's import of 500,000 tons of sugar was positive. The markets in Brazil and India lacked obvious marginal information to drive prices, and the prices generally stabilized and then fluctuated within a range, with the out-of-quota import cost remaining stable [15] 2.2 International and Domestic Market Fundamentals - In the 24/25 sugar season, the global sugar supply was in a shortage of 5.47 million tons. In May 2025, the ISO released a report on the global sugar market for the 24/25 year, with a production of 174.80 million tons and a consumption of 180.26 million tons, resulting in a global supply shortage of 5.47 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 4.88 million tons (forecast in February 2025). In terms of the quantity of the supply shortage, the shortage is at a relatively high level in history, indicating that the overall market supply situation is relatively tight. In the 24/25 sugar season, Conab estimated that the sugar production in Brazil would be 44.12 million tons (-1.56 million tons), and Nfcsf estimated that the sugar production in India would be 26.11 million tons (-5.79 million tons) [18] - In the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the 25/26 sugar season, the USDA estimated that the global sugar production would be 189.32 million tons, with a surplus of 11.4 million tons. Datagro estimated a global surplus of 1.53 million tons, GreenPool estimated a surplus of 1.15 million tons, Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons, and Alvean estimated a surplus of 0.4 million tons [20] - The core of the domestic sugar market trading is still the total import volume and structure. According to CAOC data, in the 24/25 sugar season, China's sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), consumption was 15.8 million tons, and imports were 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons (+0.04 million tons), consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and imports are expected to be 5 million tons. In Q2 2025, the Guangxi production area was threatened by drought, but the total production data from CAOC did not change significantly. In Q1 2025, the policy tightened the import of syrup and premixed powder, and in May 2025, the supervision of 4 measures of the special account book management policy for commodities was further refined. Even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [20] 3. The Driving Force of the 91 Spread May Come from the SR2601 Contract - In the international market, the situation is one of strong reality and weak expectation. In terms of driving factors, in the 24/25 sugar season, the short-term supply in the global market is relatively large, and the reality is still strong; in the 25/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, with a weak expectation [22] - In terms of valuation, although the price of New York raw sugar has significantly declined from its high level, its valuation is still relatively high compared to other major agricultural products [23] - In the domestic market, the pricing anchor point is the out-of-quota import cost. Whether in the 24/25 sugar season or the 25/26 sugar season, even if the in-quota import volume remains the same, with the decrease in the import volume of syrup and premixed powder, the market needs out-of-quota imports to fill the supply gap, and the pricing anchor point switches to the out-of-quota import cost. The total import volume and structure are the core of the market trading [23] - The driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract. The domestic situation is relatively strong, but the spot price is higher than the cost of out-of-quota imports, with no valuation advantage. The import volume in Q3 2025 is expected to increase significantly quarter-on-quarter, and the spot price will remain stable. Currently, the basis of the SR2509 contract is at a low level compared to previous years, with limited potential for imagination. The SR2601 contract is priced based on expectations, anchored to domestic production costs and out-of-quota import costs, and is also affected by the anti-involution sentiment. From late June onwards, driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the prices of industrial products such as polysilicon and coking coal have risen significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price has followed suit. In addition, the market expects that the sugar yield in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is likely to decline, and the production cost will increase, supporting the price of the SR2601 contract. From August to September, the spot price is expected to remain stable, the basis of the SR2509 contract has limited potential for imagination, and the driving force of the 91 spread depends on the SR2601 contract [24]