基差
Search documents
广发期货《农产品》日报-20260402
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-02 03:14
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil futures, the crude palm oil futures may further decline to around 4,500 ringgit. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures will first test the support at around 9,700 yuan, and there is a risk of further decline after breaking the 9,500 - yuan support [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil has a requirement for a stagflation callback. In China, after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, demand is expected to gradually increase, but with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the basis quote is expected to remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is under pressure at the 10,000 - yuan mark. The spot market traders are bearish on the far - month rapeseed oil basis, and the far - month basis quote has dropped by 20 yuan/ton [1]. 2.2 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are affected by energy prices. In the short term, raw sugar prices may fluctuate with oil prices. In China, the domestic sugar market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and sugar prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile and weak pattern [3]. 2.3 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose. The global cotton production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.9 million tons, while consumption remains stable. In China, the upward space of domestic cotton prices is restricted by the external market. Although the industrial fundamentals are sound, the follow - up needs to focus on downstream orders, new - year planting area, and weather [5]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the off - season. The prices in the main sales areas are loose, and the consumption is weak. The futures prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the short term [7]. 2.5 Apples - The inventory structure of apple main producing areas is differentiated. The prices of high - quality apples are firm, while those of ordinary apples in Shandong are under pressure. The market sentiment has weakened, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. 2.6 Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable and weak, and that in North China has rebounded locally. The marginal demand is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases [11][13]. 2.7 Meal - The USDA's report shows an increase in US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean meal market is pessimistic, and the future supply pressure will continue to increase [14]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices continue to decline. The capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline under capacity pressure [16]. 2.9 Eggs - The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a slight decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,000 yuan, down 100 yuan from March 31, a decrease of 1.11%; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,624 yuan, down 44 yuan, a decrease of 0.51%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan, up 130 yuan, an increase of 1.32%; the futures price of P2605 was 9,780 yuan, down 86 yuan, a decrease of 0.87%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,122 yuan, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.56%; the futures price of OI2605 was 9,884 yuan, down 164 yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Y2605 was 476 yuan, up 144 yuan, an increase of 43.37%; the basis of P2605 was 205 yuan, up 216 yuan, an increase of 1963.64%; the basis of OI2605 was 402 yuan, up 4 yuan, an increase of 1.01%. The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 40 yuan, unchanged; the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 44 yuan, down 22 yuan, a decrease of 100.00%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) was 17 yuan, down 16 yuan, a decrease of 17.20% [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures and Spot Markets**: On April 1, the futures price of SR2605 was 5,356 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan, a decrease of 0.78%; the futures price of SR2609 was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan, a decrease of 0.94%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,440 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, a decrease of 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,290 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, a decrease of 0.09% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 456,100 tons, a decrease of 4.69%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 1.3016 million tons, a decrease of 27.39%. The national sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 11.60 percentage points, a decrease of 23.72% [3]. 3.3 Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CF2605 was 15,245 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.91%; the futures price of CF2609 was 15,375 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decrease of 0.90%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan, a decrease of 0.35%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,797 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan, a decrease of 0.31% [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0 tons, down 547,700 tons, a decrease of 100.0%; the industrial inventory was 102,400 tons, up 13,000 tons, an increase of 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 39,100 tons, a decrease of 19.0% [5]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of CJ2605 was 8,635 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan, a decrease of 1.31%; the futures price of CJ2607 was 8,835 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 1.01%; the futures price of CJ2609 was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%. The Cangzhou special - grade spot price was 9,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 1, the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,457, equivalent to 22,285 tons of red dates [7]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of AP2605 was 9,860 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, an increase of 0.35%; the futures price of AP2610 was 8,497 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan, a decrease of 2.81%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan, a decrease of 6.35% [9]. - **Inventory and Market**: The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 266,400 tons, a decrease of 5.69%. The trading in the main producing areas was average, and the market sentiment has weakened [9]. 3.6 Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of C2605 was 2,350 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, a decrease of 0.04%; the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,385 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, an increase of 0.42%. The basis was 35 yuan, up 11 yuan, an increase of 45.83% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price of wet corn is stable and weak; in North China, the price has rebounded locally. The demand of downstream enterprises is decreasing, but the limited remaining grain and rigid demand support the price [11][13]. 3.7 Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, a decrease of 1.85%; the futures price of M2605 was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, a decrease of 0.79%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2,265 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan, a decrease of 1.48% [14]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 87 yuan, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 19.18%; the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) was - 71 yuan, down 8 yuan, a decrease of 12.70%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot was 2.87, up 0.084, an increase of 3.02%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 3.00, up 0.026, an increase of 0.88% [14]. 3.8 Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of LH2605 was 9,610 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan, a decrease of 1.64%; the futures price of LH2607 was 10,605 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan, a decrease of 1.16%. The Henan spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [16]. - **Industry Situation**: Pig prices continue to decline, the capacity reduction is slow, and the short - term market may be affected by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a risk of further decline [16]. 3.9 Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On April 1, the futures price of JD2605 was 3,440 yuan/500KG, down 25 yuan, a decrease of 0.73%; the futures price of JD2606 was 3,220 yuan/500KG, down 4 yuan, a decrease of 0.12%. The egg - producing area price was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan, a decrease of 1.27% [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of eggs is stable, and the demand has slowed down. After a decline in egg prices, the local breeding end is reluctant to sell, and the prices are expected to be volatile at a low level [19].
20260401申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260401
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 07:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.49% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, while automobile and home appliance production are in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The copper price may fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [2]. - The zinc price rose 0.92% overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate declined, and the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, but the smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production is in positive growth, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Price and Market Conditions - **Copper**: Overnight copper price up 1.49%, short - term wide - range fluctuation possible, focus on factors like US - Iran war, dollar, smelting output and downstream demand in peak season [2]. - **Zinc**: Overnight zinc price up 0.92%, may follow overall non - ferrous trend, pay attention to US - Iran war, dollar, smelting output and downstream peak - season demand [2]. Metal Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 95,300 | - 70 | 12,336 | - 79.46 | 362,600 | 2,350 | | Aluminum | 24,800 | - 110 | 3,467 | 55.65 | 418,675 | - 2,200 | | Zinc | 23,470 | - 75 | 3,227 | - 6.92 | 115,275 | - 100 | | Nickel | 137,480 | - 1,110 | 17,110 | - 196.14 | 281,574 | 0 | | Lead | 16,490 | - 80 | 1,903 | - 31.41 | 283,000 | - 75 | | Tin | 367,490 | 5,300 | 46,747 | - 121.33 | 8,665 | - 55 | [2]
股指期货价差日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 06:58
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads, including price spreads between futures and spot, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Details - **Price Spreads between Futures and Spot**: For example, the F period - spot spread is - 74.25, with a 4.00% change compared to the previous day and a 2.50% historical 1 - year quantile; the H period - spot spread is - 22.91, with a - 3.03 change and a 5.70% historical 1 - year quantile [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts, with values and changes for different varieties like IF, IH, IC, and IM [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios including CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 1000/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures [2]. Details - **Basis**: For instance, the TS basis on March 31, 2026, is 1.1202, with a 0.0494 change and a 7.40% historical quantile; the TF basis is 0.0588, with a - 0.0352 change and a 29.50% historical quantile [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract periods of TS, TF, T, and TL are reported with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals, along with investment suggestions [5]. Details - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2606, AG2606, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts are given, as well as foreign futures closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, spot platinum, spot palladium, and Shanghai Gold Exchange products are presented [5]. - **Basis**: Bases such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., are reported with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [5]. - **Price Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium are provided [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, 10 - year TIPS Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are reported [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and positions of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are presented [5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Suggestions include trying to go long on gold at the 4400 - 4500 US dollar range when gold ETF positions stop falling and rebound; expecting silver to stand above 70 US dollars and seize short - term upward opportunities; and considering the long - platinum - short - palladium ratio as platinum moves up in the 1850 - 2015 US dollar range and palladium consolidates above 1400 US dollars [5].
沥青早报-20260401
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Basis and Month Spread - **Basis**: On March 31st, the Shandong basis (+80) (non - Jingbo) was -32 with a daily change of -99; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was -62 with a daily change of 7; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was -62 with a daily change of 1 [3]. - **Month Spread**: On March 31st, the 04 - 05 spread was 0 with a daily change of 3; the 04 - 06 spread was 5 with a daily change of -1; the 06 - 09 spread was 233 with a daily change of 15 [3]. 3.2 Futures Contract - **BU Main Contract**: On March 31st, the price of the BU main contract was 4512, with a daily change of -1 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: On March 31st, the trading volume was 1175067, with a daily increase of 101795 [3]. - **Open Interest**: On March 31st, the open interest was 370991, with a daily decrease of 1239 [3]. - **Combined Contract**: On March 31st, the combined contract was 35600, with no daily change [3]. 3.3 Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - **Brent Crude Oil**: On March 31st, the price was 114.5, with no daily change [3]. - **Asphalt Prices**: On March 31st, the price of Jingbo asphalt was 4450 with no change; the price of Shandong (non - Jingbo) asphalt was 4400, with a daily decrease of 100; the price of Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt was 4450 with no change; the price of Foshan warehouse asphalt was 4450 with no change [3]. 3.4 Profit - **Asphalt Marey Profit**: On March 31st, the asphalt Marey profit was -718, with a daily decrease of 1 [3].
《金融》日报-20260401
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:48
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core View - The report provides the latest values of various stock index futures spreads, their changes compared to the previous day, and historical percentile data, helping investors understand the current situation of the stock index futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: The F futures - spot spread was -74.25, with a 4.00% change from the previous day and a 2.50% historical 1 - year percentile. The H futures - spot spread was -22.91, with a -3.03 change and a 5.70% historical 1 - year percentile. The IC futures - spot spread was -193.12, with a -14.71 change, and the IM futures - spot spread was 18.08, with a 0.9096 change [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: For different contracts (e.g., next month - current month, far month - current month), various inter - delivery spreads are presented with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the next month - current month spread of a certain contract was -20.40, with a -1.00 change and a 22.20% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the IC/IF ratio was 2.6480, with a 96.90% historical percentile [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core View - The report provides the latest values of various treasury bond futures spreads, their changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical percentile data, assisting investors in analyzing the treasury bond futures market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Basis**: The TS basis was 1.1202, with a 0.0494 change and a 7.40% historical percentile. The TF basis was 0.0588, with a -0.0352 change and a 29.50% historical percentile. The T basis was 0.0502, with a -0.0483 change and a 48.30% historical percentile. The TL basis was 0.0060, with a 27.00% historical percentile [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for each contract (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) are presented, along with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the current quarter - next quarter spread of the TF contract was 0.2400, with a 0.0050 change and a 44.10% historical percentile [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are provided with their changes and historical percentile data. For example, the TS - TF spread was -3.5670, with a -0.0210 change and an 8.40% historical percentile [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report Core View - The report presents the latest prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions, and provides investment suggestions for precious metals [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2606 contract closed at 1020.10 yuan, up 0.51% from the previous day. The AG2606 contract closed at 18126 yuan/ten grams, up 2.37%. The PT2606 contract closed at 493.10 yuan, down 0.88%. The PD2606 contract closed at 361.40 yuan, up 1.15% [5]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4699.60 dollars, up 3.51%. The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 75.35 dollars, up 7.36%. The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 1962.30 dollars, up 3.67%. The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1488.50 dollars, up 5.31% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price was 4669.13 dollars, up 3.45%. The London silver price was 75.11 dollars, up 7.24%. The spot platinum price was 1950.00 dollars, up 3.34%. The spot palladium price was 1448.00 dollars, up 1.26%. The SGE gold T + D price was 1015.68 yuan/gram, up 0.67%. The SGE silver T + D price was 18031 yuan/ten grams, up 2.68%. The SGE gold 9995 price was 465 yuan, up 1.10% [5]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis was -4.42, with a 1.50 change and a 46.10% historical 1 - year percentile. The silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 basis was 3.66, with a 0.74 change and a 99.20% historical 1 - year percentile [5]. - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 62.37, down 3.59%. The SHFE gold/silver ratio was 56.28, down 1.81%. The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.32, down 1.56%. The GFE platinum/palladium ratio was 1.36, down 2.01% [5]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.30%, down 1.19%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.79%, down 0.8%. The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 2.00%, down 2.0%. The US dollar index was 09.88, down 0.62%. The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8879, down 0.41% [5]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The SHFE gold inventory was 106644, unchanged. The SHFE silver inventory was 368667 kg, down 1.54%. The COMEX gold inventory was 31533901, down 0.01%. The COMEX silver inventory was 327820669, up 0.07%. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16563243 ounces, down 0.33%. The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76429739, up 0.53%. The SPDR gold ETF position was 1047, up 0.11%. The SLV silver ETF position was 15274, down 0.09% [5]. - **Investment Suggestions**: If the gold ETF position stops falling and rebounds, it reflects the improvement of the confidence of allocation funds. Investors can try to buy on dips in the range of 4400 - 4500 dollars and pay attention to the short - term resistance of the 20 - day moving average. In the short term, as the US - Iran war eases, silver is expected to stabilize above 70 dollars with gold, and investors can grasp the opportunity of band - type upward movement with the boost of capital sentiment, with the upper resistance at 85 dollars. Platinum is moving upward in the range of 1850 - 2015 dollars, and palladium is fluctuating and consolidating above 1400 dollars. The fundamental situation of palladium is relatively weaker, and investors can continue to hold the long - platinum short - palladium ratio [5].
LPG早报-20260401
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The disk oscillated and declined, with the basis at -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31), and 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihood in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low, and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market - On March 31, the PG2605 contract closed at 6339 (-267) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 139 (-31) and 0 warehouse receipts (-1300). The night session closed at 6501 (+162), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 166 (+27). [1] - Constrained by the successive decline of the related oil product market, the refinery's willingness to support the market is not strong. Shandong civil gas was at 6370 (-81), Shandong ether - post at 6510 (-40), Shandong propane at 6807 (-25), and Longkou Port propane at 7500 (+0). [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The basis was -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread was 193 (+31), and there were 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). Shandong civil gas was at 6100 (+110), East China civil gas at 7065 (+876), and South China civil gas at 7205 (+905). [1] - The FEI month spread was 104 US dollars (-8), the oil - gas ratio oscillated, and the internal and external PG - FEI c2 reached 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -122 (-46). [1] - Propane import profit increased significantly. The spot profit of Chinese PDH - made propylene weakened to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China oscillated significantly. [1] - The port inventory ratio was 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume was 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization was 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release was 51.78 tons (-3.36%). [1] - The PDH operating rate was 63.6% (-2.03pct); the utilization rate of alkylated oil production capacity was 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate was 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order was 0 tons (-4.5). [1]
《金融》日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 07:02
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time historical percentiles of stock index futures spreads including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF spot - futures spread is - 77.95, down 2.78 from the previous day, with 1 - year and all - time percentiles of 3.20% and 2.30% respectively; IH is - 22.91, down 3.03, with 10.60% and 5.70%; IC is - 193.12, down 14.71, with 2.80% and 0.30%; IM is - 258.53, down 36.02, with 15.00% and 0.60% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different cross - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, showing their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures [5]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.0707, up 0.0606, with a 7.00% percentile since listing; TF is 1.0953, up 0.0940, with 25.50%; T is 1.1640, down 0.0059, with 39.10%; TL is 0.5152, up 0.0568, with 19.30% [5]. - **Cross - Period Spread**: Cross - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL are given, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles [5]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [5]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals, and gives investment suggestions [6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2606 contract closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 1.62%; AG2606 at 17707 yuan/kg, up 1.25%. Foreign COMEX gold closed at 4540.40, up 1.13%; COMEX silver at 70.18, up 0.59% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 4513.52, up 0.45%; London silver is 70.04, up 0.45%. Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 1008.96 yuan/gram, up 1.66%; silver T + D is 17560 yuan/kg, up 0.53% [6]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.92, up 0.29, with a 46.10% 1 - year percentile; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 147, down 125, with 60.60% [6]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 64.70, up 0.54%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 57.32, up 0.37% [6]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.35%, down 2.0%; 2 - year is 3.82%, down 1.5%. US dollar index is 100.51, up 0.33% [6]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 106644 kg, unchanged; COMEX gold inventory is 31536505, down 0.56%. SPDR gold ETF position is 1046, down 0.33%; SLV silver ETF position is 15288, down 0.79% [6]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For gold, try to buy call options when the price drops below 4400 dollars. For silver, sell call options above 19000 yuan. For platinum and palladium, platinum fluctuates between 1850 - 2000 dollars, palladium between 1450 - 1600 dollars, and try to buy platinum at low prices [6].
蛋白数据日报-20260331
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 07:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - South American selling pressure continues to be released, and there is still downward pressure on soybean meal in the short term. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is relatively low. It is recommended to wait for the correction to layout long positions for far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet. In April, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory, and the 165 - 119 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian is 383, in Tianjin is 323, in Zhangjiagang is 303, in Dongguan is 323 (down 20), in Zhanjiang is 263 (down 50), and in Fangcheng is 303. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 5 (up 24). The M5 - 9 spread is - 66 (up 20), and the RM5 - 9 spread is - 59 (up 29) [4] Spread and Other Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 617, and the spread of the main contract is - 20. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 274.00, with a change of - 4 [5] Inventory Data - Inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean压榨量 of national major oil mills are presented, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] Downstream Data - Downstream data shows the situation from 2019 - 2026 [6] International Situation - As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has decreased recently. For US soybeans, pay attention to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of March. Brazilian shipping has resumed, concerns about delayed domestic arrivals have been alleviated, the supply of oil mills has recovered, and domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in April [6]
20260331申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260331
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:43
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices closed 0.43% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, while auto production and sales, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market is persistently weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [2]. - Zinc prices closed 0.47% higher overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are in positive growth, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market is persistently weak. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2]. 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market Basis Data | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 95,700 | -65 | | Aluminum | 24,640 | -100 | | Zinc | 23,480 | -95 | | Nickel | 136,540 | -1,770 | | Lead | 16,465 | -70 | | Tin | 369,790 | -4,030 | [2] 3.2 LME Spot Premium/Discount Data | Variety | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 12,195 | -82.55 | | Aluminum | 3,445 | 47.21 | | Zinc | 3,182 | -0.68 | | Nickel | 17,325 | -201.58 | | Lead | 1,912 | -31.20 | | Tin | 46,160 | -165.00 | [2] 3.3 LME Inventory Data | Variety | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 360,250 | 425 | | Aluminum | 420,875 | -2,200 | | Zinc | 115,375 | -275 | | Nickel | 281,574 | -666 | | Lead | 283,075 | -25 | | Tin | 8,720 | 0 | [2]
供应趋紧,EG基差快速上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of EG is tightening, and the basis has risen rapidly. The closing price of the EG main contract was 5,359 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 5,429 yuan/ton (up 279 yuan/ton or 5.42% from the previous trading day). The basis of EG East China spot was 0 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton month-on-month). Due to the tense situation in Iran, the expectation of reduced imports and increased exports of EG has fermented, leading to a tightening supply and a rapid rise in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$255/ton (up $23/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 425 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.075 million tons (up 36,000 tons month-on-month). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 78,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 5,000 tons. The arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply. Overseas, the load of ethylene glycol plants has also decreased significantly. After the delivery of Middle Eastern cargoes in March, there will be a phased shortage of supplies from the Middle East in April, and the import volume is expected to drop significantly, making inventory reduction possible. On the demand side, the load of polyester and weaving has started to decline, the downstream price increase is weak, the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate, and a negative feedback of production reduction has emerged. If the cost price remains high, downstream production cuts may increase further [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. Inventory reduction at ports is expected to be realized in April. Recently, inquiries from some Asian countries to China have increased. With the import volume at a low level and exports, the reduction of ethylene glycol social inventory will accelerate significantly. Pay attention to the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in ethylene glycol plants [3]. - Inter - period: Go long on the May - September spread due to supply influence [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3] 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 5,359 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 5,429 yuan/ton (up 279 yuan/ton or 5.42% from the previous trading day). The basis of EG East China spot was 0 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$255/ton (up $23/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 425 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The load of polyester and weaving has started to decline, the downstream price increase is weak, the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate, and a negative feedback of production reduction has emerged. If the cost price remains high, downstream production cuts may increase further [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.075 million tons (up 36,000 tons month-on-month). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 78,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 5,000 tons. The arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline [1].