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华住集团-S(01179):境内RevPAR同比转正,收入增速高于指引:华住集团-S(01179.HK)
Huafu Securities· 2026-03-29 13:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.53 billion yuan for Q4 2025, representing an 8.3% increase, which is above the guidance of 2% to 6%. The franchise revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, up 21.0%, exceeding the upper limit of the guidance of 17% to 21% [2]. - Adjusted net income for Q4 2025 was 1.297 billion yuan, a significant increase of 304.0% compared to 321 million yuan in Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was 2.194 billion yuan, up 76.1% from 1.246 billion yuan in the previous year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from improvements in the hotel cycle, with projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 estimated at 5.3 billion, 6.2 billion, and 6.9 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [4]. Financial Data Summary - For 2024, the main revenue is projected at 23.891 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.048 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of -25% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is estimated at 1.69 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 20.7 [4]. - The total assets are projected to be 64.774 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 51.816 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 80% [10].