行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 消费者服务行业周报（20260223-20260227） 推荐（维持） 春节客流创历史新高，下沉市场释放消费潜力 消费者服务 2026 年 03 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：饶临风 邮箱：raolinfeng@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080002 证券分析师：曹锦瑜 邮箱：caojinyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525100001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 55 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,988.04 | 0.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,570.81 | 0.49 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -7.7% | -0.7% | 9.2% | | 相对表现 | -6.9% | -20.3% | -9.9% | -8% 3% 13% 23% 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/10 25/12 26/02 2025- ...

重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 锦江酒店 | 600754.SH | 28.28 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 33.14 | 25.97 | 23.34 | 1.98 | 推荐 | | 首旅酒店 | 600258.SH | 17.46 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 21.93 | 19.89 | 18.19 | 1.67 | 推荐 | | 古茗 | 01364.HK | 28.48 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.33 | 24.10 | 22.83 | 19.00 | 14.24 | 推荐 | | 中国中免 | 601888.SH | 80.58 | 1.97 | 2.42 | 2.83 ...

2月25日，长白山涨1.95%，成交额2.17亿元。两融数据显示，当日长白山获融资买入额1027.43万元， 融资偿还1672.21万元，融资净买入-644.78万元。截至2月25日，长白山融资融券余额合计2.16亿元。 融资方面，长白山当日融资买入1027.43万元。当前融资余额2.15亿元，占流通市值的2.05%，融资余额 低于近一年40%分位水平，处于较低位。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 截至9月30日，长白山股东户数4.59万，较上期增加25.35%；人均流通股5814股，较上期减少20.23%。 2025年1月-9月，长白山实现营业收入6.36亿元，同比增长6.99%；归母净利润1.49亿元，同比增长 1.05%。 分红方面，长白山A股上市后累计派现1.44亿元。近三年，累计派现4253.39万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，长白山十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居 ...

核心观点：春节文旅量稳价升，看好高端消费回暖 我们认为，2026 年消费最确定的增量来自服务，而文旅是服务消费中最具弹性的赛道，因此选择开设"数说文旅消费" 专题，重点跟踪文旅消费数据。 总览：2026 年春节消费延续元旦复苏趋势，量增平稳、价格改善亮眼。商务大数据显示假期前四天全国重点零售及餐 饮企业日均销售额同比+8.6%，显著高于 2025 年国庆中秋 2.7%及春节 5.4%增速。 出行：春节长假期驱动长途出行旺盛，长辈"反向过节"趋势明显，客流量增长亮眼。根据交通部数据，2026 年 2 月 16 日-2 月 21 日日均全社会跨区域人员流动 2.99 亿人次，同比 2025 年同期+11.05%，累计跨区域人员流动达 17.93 亿人次，同比+11.13%，长途出行市场维持高景气。分具体出行方式看，春节前六日铁路/公路/水路/民航累计分别较 2025 年同期+ 16.37%/+10.90%/+31.05%/+9.45%。 旅游：春节客流充裕，多景区供给侧优化，营收增长亮眼。张家界黄龙洞将非遗年俗与溶洞景观深度融合，三峡游轮 将传统年俗与三峡风光交融，打造沉浸式体验；黄山旅游借力有奖发票活动，将外部 ...

1）量端，国内游方面，根据交通运输部统计，2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%，其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游，与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善；而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%；出入境游方面，据国家移民管理局，2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次，较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2）价端，根据DAST统计，春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%，预计 假期票价增速高于节前（2.22票价同比增长6.3%）。 子行业：酒店提价逻辑验证，海南免税双位数增长，祈福景区表现突出，本地零售餐饮环比提速 国信证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务消费对比海外具备较 大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时间、供给侧约束都为 政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预期，该行建议重视2026 年服务消费元年，伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导，全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主 线 ...

2月24日，A股喜气洋洋，迎来马年的开门红，但拿着消费的，脸绿得发青，不说白酒高开低走，就是原来走得像模像样，俨然有老登带头大哥之势的中 免都封死跌停，以致公司都要出来回应。 自从23年春节来，消费已经连续四年春节没见过好脸色了，也连续四年没啥行情了。许多投资人觉得科技股已经涨很久了，对26年的消费是抱有期待的， 而现实又给了老登投资人一盆冷水。 当前是消费的至暗时刻，还是漫漫长夜继续？我们可以先来看一下消费的数据面。 史上最长的春节消费数据如何？ 春节是一个消费旺季，但落到我们投资上，其实主要是白酒和社服，后者包括免税、酒店、餐饮、出行等相关数据。 春节占白酒一年消费量的很大一部分，26年春节的白酒消费继续不给力，整体动销下滑了10-15%，不过临近春节前夕有所恢复。 茅台的批价持续往上走，站上了1700，除了茅台外，表现好的有五粮液，节前一周一些区域的动销恢复正增长，批价和春节成交价为780元+和800元+， 略超预期。但这个略超预期，终究是市场预期本来就低带来的，并不是白酒表现好了。分价格带看，中间的次高端是表现最差的一档，高不成低不就。 节前收盘后官方出了一个文件，三部门联合印发了《酿酒产业提质升级指 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable hotels total revenue was $319 million for Q4 2025 and $1.4 billion for the full year, down approximately 2% and 1% compared to 2024 [22] - Comparable hotels adjusted hotel EBITDA was approximately $99 million for Q4 and $474 million for the year, down approximately 8% and 6% compared to the same periods in 2024 [22] - Comparable hotels RevPAR for the full year was $118, down 1.6%, with an ADR of $159, down only 10 basis points [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable hotels EBITDA margin was 31.1% for Q4 and 34.3% for the year, down 210 basis points and 190 basis points compared to 2024 [30] - Variable hotel expenses increased only 0.5% in Q4, while total hotel expenses increased by 1% for the quarter and 1.9% for the year [29] - Top RevPAR performing hotels included the Embassy Suites in Anchorage, Alaska, which was up almost 42%, and the Homewood Suites in Tukwila, Washington, which was up 33% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - STR reports industry RevPAR of $100 and average occupancy of 62% for 2025, highlighting the relative strength of the company's portfolio [23] - Market performance varied significantly, with some markets showing strong RevPAR gains while others faced headwinds due to demand shifts [24] - Preliminary results for January 2026 indicated a comparable RevPAR decline of approximately 1.5% compared to January 2025, impacted by travel disruptions [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to optimize its portfolio and capitalize on market dislocations while managing expenses to maximize shareholder value [5] - The transition of 13 Marriott-managed hotels to franchise is expected to drive operational synergies and increase marketability [8] - The company plans to reinvest between $80 million and $90 million in its portfolio for 2026, with major renovations planned for approximately 21 hotels [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term outlook for the hospitality industry and the company's ability to drive profitability [21] - The guidance for 2026 anticipates comparable hotels RevPAR to be flat at the midpoint, with potential benefits from the FIFA World Cup 2026 [18][35] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by policy-related demand disruptions but remains confident in the company's strategy and adaptability [36] Other Important Information - The company sold seven hotels for a combined gross sales price of approximately $73 million and repurchased 4.6 million common shares for about $58 million [9] - The company paid distributions totaling approximately $240 million for the full year, representing an annual yield of approximately 7.8% [17] - The balance sheet as of December 31, 2025, showed approximately $1.5 billion of total outstanding debt, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.7% [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: What was the total drag on RevPAR in 2025 from Liberation Day and the government shutdown? - Management indicated that government-related room nights were down about 12% for the full year, with a potential recovery of about a point in occupancy expected [39][40] Question: Can you take us through some of the building blocks on the expense side? - Management provided details on variable and fixed expenses, with variable expenses expected to be just under 3% and fixed expenses around 4.5% for the full year [41] Question: Does the RevPAR growth guidance assume any volatility? - Management noted that the guidance does not contemplate much benefit from special events, with expectations for growth primarily in the second half of the year [45][46] Question: How are you approaching business mix this year? - Management expressed satisfaction with the team's ability to bring group business into hotels at attractive rates, expecting a shift towards more group and less government business [48] Question: Can you discuss the impact of the Marriott franchise transitions? - Management highlighted that the transitions would enhance marketability and drive cost savings, improving profitability [99][100]

没有借口 他同时表示："良好的治理也意味着保护凯悦，尤其是在我与爱泼斯坦等人存在关联的背景下。对此我深感懊悔。" 爱泼斯坦于2008年因向未成年人招妓认罪，2019年在狱中等待性交易指控审理期间死亡。 Pritzker强调，他谴责爱泼斯坦的行为，并表示："我未能更早与其保持距离，没有任何借口。" 在同时发布的一封致董事会信函中，Pritzker提到自己今年将满76岁，并表示公司目前处于"稳健且可持续的发展阶段"，具备持续增长的能力。不过，在 这封信中，他并未提及自己与爱泼斯坦等人之间的关系。 凯悦酒店集团（Hyatt Hotels）董事长、亿万富翁Thomas Pritzker日前宣布卸任董事长职务。此前，美国司法部最新公布的文件显示，他与臭名昭著的性犯 罪者爱泼斯坦存在长期联系，引发外界关注。 Thomas Pritzker在周一发表的声明中表示，自己在与爱泼斯坦保持联系一事上"做出了极其糟糕的判断"。根据近期公开的文件，在爱泼斯坦2008年就性犯 罪指控达成认罪协议之后，Pritzker仍与其保持定期联系。 随着相关文件披露爱泼斯坦与多位商界及社会名流之间的往来细节，Pritzker成为最新一位因此受到舆 ...

机构观点 2026年1月，多家机构更新评级，摩根士丹利将目标价上调至306美元，富国集团上调至338美元，机构 平均目标价约299美元，超配评级占比46%。行业分析指出，2026年酒店供给增速预计放缓，高线城市 入住率可能回升，推动RevPAR实现低个位数增长，或对希尔顿定价能力构成支撑。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网 2026年2月11日，希尔顿酒店发布2025年第四季度及全年财报。第四季度营收同比增长11% 至30.9亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.08美元，均超市场预期；全年营收达120.39亿美元，同比增长 7.74%，归母净利润为14.57亿美元。核心指标RevPAR（每间可用客房收入）在第四季度实现0.5%的小 幅增长，扭转了此前下滑趋势。然而，公司对2026年的盈利指引趋于谨慎，预计调整后每股收益为 8.65–8.77美元，低于市场预期的9.13美元，主要受美国旅游需求放缓影响。 股票近期走势 近期希尔顿股价呈现波动。截至2026年2月13日，收盘价为314.62美元，当日下跌2.34%；过去5个交易 日累计涨幅为0.08%，区间振幅达7.19%。成交额在2月11日显著放大 ...

Core Insights - Hilton's Q4 revenue grew by 11% year-over-year to $3.09 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.98 billion [2] - Adjusted EPS was $2.08, surpassing market expectations of $2.02 [3] - Full-year revenue reached $12.039 billion, a 7.74% increase year-over-year [4] Financial Performance - Full-year net income was $1.457 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.10% [4] - Operating cash flow was $2.129 billion, and free cash flow was $2.028 billion, indicating healthy cash flow [5] Operational Insights - RevPAR increased by 0.5% in Q4, reversing a two-quarter decline [3] - The Middle East and Africa saw a RevPAR increase of 9.9%, driving growth, while the U.S. market faced pressure due to slowing business travel [6] - The global development pipeline remains strong, supporting long-term growth potential [7] Future Outlook - Hilton projects adjusted EPS for 2026 to be between $8.65 and $8.77, below market expectations of $9.13 [8] - Full-year RevPAR growth guidance is set at 1% to 2%, primarily impacted by slowing travel demand in the U.S. [8] Stock Performance - As of February 13, 2026, Hilton's stock price was $320.91, reflecting an 11.72% increase year-to-date, with a total market capitalization of approximately $73.582 billion [9]