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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260318
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 01:19
1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 18, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Summary - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened at 8030 yuan/ton, closed at 8014 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton (-1.26%); L2605 opened at 8505 yuan/ton, closed at 8496 yuan/ton, down 136 yuan/ton (-1.58%); L2609 opened at 8294 yuan/ton, closed at 8202 yuan/ton, down 103 yuan/ton (-1.24%) [5] - **PP Futures**: PP2701 opened at 7750 yuan/ton, closed at 7771 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2605 opened at 8750 yuan/ton, closed at 8671 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan/ton (-1.47%); PP2609 opened at 8198 yuan/ton, closed at 8179 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton (-0.96%) [5] 3. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2605 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and finally closed at 8496 yuan/ton, down 136 yuan/ton (-1.58%), with a trading volume of 850,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 11,218 to 333,729 lots; PP2605 closed at 8671 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan/ton (-1.47%), with a decrease in positions by 42,481 to 373,300 lots [6] - **Market Drivers**: Concerns about crude oil supply disruptions outweigh the stabilizing signals from the release of oil reserves. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, and Brent crude remains at a high level of $100. Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Tight raw material supply leads upstream enterprises to reduce production. There is a window period for new device commissioning in the first half of the year, and supply contraction during the regular maintenance period from March to April may exceed expectations. Downstream开工率 has increased month - on - month, but the downstream's willingness to chase high prices has cooled, and there is resistance to continuously rising raw material prices [6] - **Market Outlook**: High volatility dilutes the impact of news, and market sentiment has become dull. The polyolefin market will maintain a pattern of strong fluctuations and a rising center of gravity driven by cost support and supply contraction [6] 4. Industry News - **Inventory**: On March 17, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 865,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (0.58%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **PE Market**: PE market prices partially declined. The price of LLDPE in North China was 8300 - 9100 yuan/ton, in East China was 8450 - 8950 yuan/ton, and in South China was 8550 - 9100 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market was temporarily 8000 - 8050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Downstream factories' wait - and - see sentiment increased, mainly making rigid purchases, and production enterprises had a strong willingness to stabilize the market, with general overall trading performance [7] - **PP Market**: The decline of domestic PP futures suppressed the spot market atmosphere. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 8450 - 8650 yuan/ton, in East China was 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 8600 - 8850 yuan/ton [7] 5. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including L - basis, PP - basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][13][17]