1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the market is in a fierce tug - of - war between bulls and bears. Crude oil is mainly in high - level volatility. [3][4] - Stock index: The short - term volatility is large. Consider interval operations to seize stage - up opportunities. [5] - Gold: Given the unclear short - term driving factors and high price volatility, wait for clear catalysts at the macro or geopolitical level. [6][7] - Silver: The current price fluctuates extremely violently. Pay close attention to energy prices and global manufacturing PMI data. [8] - Rubber: The Shanghai rubber main contract may have certain support around 16,000 yuan/ton and show a fluctuating trend. [10] - Plastic: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. [11] - Methanol: Methanol may continue the high - level fluctuation trend. Pay close attention to the spring maintenance intensity, geopolitical situation progress, and port inventory changes. [13] - PTA: In the short term, continuously pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the recovery of downstream demand is still the key. [14] - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol market is currently strongly supported by supply contraction and stable demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances under geopolitical factors. [15] - Soda ash: The futures price may enter a bottom - range fluctuation state. Adopt a bottom - range fluctuation thinking in the short term. [16] - Glass: The glass market is expected to continue the interval - fluctuation trend. Adopt an interval - fluctuation thinking in the short term. [18] - Corn: Corn is under pressure to correct in the short term. Pay attention to the support around 2,350 yuan/ton. [19][20] - Peanut: The main peanut contract fluctuates in a wide range. Operate cautiously. [21] - Cotton: Cotton is in high - level volatility. Operate cautiously. [22] - Soybean meal: Soybean meal may be weakly volatile in the short term. [23] - Soybean oil: The biodiesel policy is about to be implemented. Operate cautiously. [24] - Rapeseed meal: For the RM2605 contract, be vigilant against price fluctuation risks in the short term and focus on risk prevention and control. [25] - Rapeseed oil: The OI05 contract may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short term. Pay attention to risk prevention and control. [26] - Live pigs: The spot price is initially stable. Wait for policy signals and operate cautiously. [27] - Eggs: Pay attention to the breeding side's replenishment and elimination in the medium and long term. [29] - Shanghai copper: The sentiment has improved. Conservative investors wait for definite signals, while aggressive ones can participate at an appropriate time. [30] - Shanghai aluminum: Operate cautiously and wait and see in the short term. [31] - Alumina: The expectation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still upward pressure. [32] - Cast aluminum alloy: The price is strongly correlated with Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the marginal changes in cost and demand. [33][34] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for opportunities to buy at low prices or enter the market after a breakthrough. [35] - Industrial silicon: Cost support is dominant. There may be no trending market in the short term. Wait and see for the time being. [36] - Polysilicon: The trading is sluggish with large fluctuations. It is not recommended to participate for now. [37] - Stainless steel: Affected by macro - sentiment, it fluctuates in the short term. [38] - Rebar: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [39][40] - Hot - rolled coil: The market sentiment is strong, and steel products fluctuate strongly. [41] - Iron ore: Iron ore may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. [42] - Coking coal and coke: They may maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. Pay attention to the actual purchasing power of steel mills, coal mine capacity release, and policy implementation. [43][44] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The US - Iran conflict is in a state of "talking while fighting". The uncertainty of geopolitics disturbs the crude oil and chemical sectors, and the energy - chemical sector remains strong before the crisis is completely resolved. The resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of Middle - East oil and gas facilities are the main influencing factors [3]. - Market analysis: The change in the Gulf situation affects the futures market in real - time. The energy - chemical prices are in high - level volatility. If there is no further attack on oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz is opened orderly, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [3]. Stock Index - Macro information: The market is in an environment with internal support and external pressure. The internal support comes from the improvement of macro - economic data and policy tone, while the external pressure is from the Middle - East conflict [5]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the A - share market declined across the board. Funds flowed from the technology - growth sectors to the large - cap blue - chip sectors. [5] Gold - Macro and geopolitics: The Fed maintained the interest rate in March, with only one expected rate cut this year. The Middle - East conflict continues, and the prospect of a cease - fire negotiation is unclear [6]. - Market analysis: On March 31, the spot gold price rebounded slightly. High oil prices strengthen the Fed's "higher - for - longer" stance, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, if the Middle - East situation escalates, the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset may increase [6][7]. Silver - External price: The spot silver price has experienced sharp adjustments and rebounded on March 31. The inventory data shows a tight fundamental situation [8]. - Market analysis: The silver market is in a game between macro - suppression and fundamental support. High energy prices may suppress the price, while low inventory and industrial demand may support it [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - Market price: The prices of various types of rubber and raw materials are provided [9]. - Market analysis: Due to the off - season of rubber tapping, high raw material prices, and the rising price of BR synthetic rubber, the downside space of Shanghai rubber is limited. Pay attention to domestic rubber - tapping, downstream start - up, inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and BR rubber premium [10]. Plastic - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions have declined [11]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the demand is at a low level, and the inventory is at a certain level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and is affected by geopolitics and oil prices [11]. Methanol - Spot information: The spot prices in different regions show different trends [12][13]. - Market analysis: The futures price has declined. The port inventory is decreasing, the domestic supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is recovering. The international situation may lead to a structural adjustment in methanol trade [13]. PTA - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has also changed [14]. - Market analysis: The PTA industry's operating rate is at a high level, but the downstream polyester industry's sales are sluggish. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price has decreased, and the basis has changed [15]. - Market analysis: The domestic production has decreased, the port inventory is declining, the expected arrival volume is low, and the polyester industry's high - level operation supports the demand. The short - term focus is on cost - side price disturbances [15]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased, the factory inventory is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The demand is weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [16]. Glass - Spot information: The prices in different regions are stable [17][18]. - Market analysis: The supply has decreased slightly, the factory inventory is decreasing, and the terminal demand in the peak season may support the market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: The purchase prices in different regions are provided [19]. - Market analysis: The USDA report shows an increase in global corn production and inventory. The domestic supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19]. Peanut - Spot price: The peanut price is mostly stable, with a decline in the Northeast. The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand is slightly boosted, but the price may decline later [21]. - Market analysis: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and oil - mill procurement mentality [21]. Cotton - Spot information: The spot prices at home and abroad have changed, and the basis and price difference have also changed [22]. - Market analysis: The international cotton price is rising. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, the demand has some resilience, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot price is continuously decreasing [23]. - Market analysis: The market is waiting for the US soybean planting intention report. The cost support is weakening, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the inventory may increase in the future [23]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: The spot price has slightly increased [24]. - Market analysis: Globally, it is affected by the Middle - East conflict and biodiesel policy. Domestically, it is about to enter the off - season. Pay attention to the situation of the US - Iran conflict and the implementation of the biodiesel policy [24]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The basis price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: The US soybean market has no obvious driving factors, waiting for the biodiesel policy. The relaxation of regulations on Brazilian soybeans suppresses the market sentiment. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [25]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The basis price is stable [26]. - Market analysis: Brazilian biodiesel producers have the ability to support a higher blending ratio. The supply of non - GMO rapeseed oil is tight. Pay attention to the Middle - East situation, crude - oil trend, and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [26]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The price is stable in general, with a slight increase in Henan [27]. - Market analysis: The supply is slowing down, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy of purchasing and storing is expected to increase. The spot price is initially stable, and pay attention to the reversal signal [27]. Eggs - Spot market: The price is rising steadily [28]. - Market analysis: The supply pressure of new - laying hens is small, the egg - laying hen inventory is declining, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the long - term supply - side changes [29]. Metals Shanghai Copper - Spot information: The spot price has increased [30]. - Market analysis: The domestic inventory is in the destocking cycle, but the global inventory is high. The copper - smelting industry is under pressure, and the price is supported by domestic destocking and new - energy demand but restricted by high inventory and smelting losses [30]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price has increased [31]. - Market analysis: The attack on Middle - East aluminum factories has increased the price. The domestic supply is rigid, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. The price is supported in the short term but may be under pressure in the long term [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has increased slightly [32]. - Market analysis: The supply is expected to be excessive due to the increase in production, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, the import and export have no arbitrage space, and the inventory has increased [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The average price is stable [33]. - Market analysis: The cost provides some support, the supply is in a state of over - capacity, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is correlated with Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to cost and demand changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [35]. - Market analysis: The social inventory is at a low level, the supply is expected to decrease, the demand from energy - storage batteries is increasing, and the profit is differentiated. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and pay attention to future supply and demand changes [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The market prices of different grades are provided [36]. - Market analysis: The supply is decreasing due to cost pressure, the inventory is high and difficult to destock, the demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost. Pay attention to the resumption of production of leading factories and the implementation of emission - reduction policies [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types have decreased [36][37]. - Market analysis: The market is under the triple pressure of high inventory, deep losses, and serious supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and pay attention to inventory destocking and policy intervention [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [37]. - Market analysis: The adjustment of Indonesian nickel - mine quotas drives the price up, but the weak terminal demand and high inventory may suppress the upward space. The price may fluctuate in the short term [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price is stable [39]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [39][40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price is stable [41]. - Market analysis: Affected by domestic policy expectations and overseas macro - factors, the price is in a strong - basis regression and fluctuates strongly. The supply is at a high level, the demand is slightly decreasing, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the cost has resilience. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of different types of iron ore show different trends [42]. - Market analysis: The iron - ore market is in a game between short - term geopolitical premium support and medium - term supply - demand relaxation. The price is pressured by high inventory but pushed up by policy disturbances. The supply is expected to be loose in the long term, and the demand is recovering slowly. The price may fluctuate in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price index of coking coal has decreased, and the average price of first - class metallurgical coke is stable [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, the supply is increasing but restricted by inventory, the demand is elastic, and the price is affected by energy prices and supply - demand. For coke, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by coking - coal price and geopolitical factors. They are expected to fluctuate in the short term [43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and the risk premium usually fades within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months. If the current conflict subsides quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will show a downward trend, with structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to decline, and downstream processing links will see improved profitability [5][6]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. Gold is expected to continue with a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. Pulp futures are in an interval oscillation [7][11][12][16][18][20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts on oil prices are mostly short - term emotional premiums rather than long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the crude oil risk premium will quickly be reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. The trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - The crude oil chemical futures as a whole will follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE will see weakened cost support and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The larger the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - based olefins and methanol have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to decline, and a smaller decline compared with pure oil - chemical varieties. Downstream processing links such as plastic and rubber products will see relieved cost pressure, improved marginal profitability, and smoother price transmission [6]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythm - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: It is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. The Shanghai Composite Index is still within the 15 - minute oscillation range [7][8]. - Gold: Gold has stabilized in the daily - level oscillation. After a higher opening, it showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. It should be treated with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset in the future [11]. - Iron ore: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the influence of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come [12][13]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [16][17]. - Methanol: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for over 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities have led to a sharp increase in the expectation of import supply contraction, which is the core driver of this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as high - level oscillation [18]. - Pulp: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp enterprises' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown an interval oscillation recently [20].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market maintains a strong and volatile pattern with a rising center of gravity, driven by strong cost support and substantial supply contraction [6] - The current fundamental contradictions are not yet intense, but the market is significantly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil prices, and high volatility risks should be watched out for [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2601 opened lower and declined during the session, closing at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 404 yuan/ton (-4.48%), with a trading volume of 830,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 24,962 to 299,225 lots [6] - PP2605 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 391 yuan (-4.12%), with a decrease in positions by 18,026 to 319,600 lots [6] - The Middle East conflict has led to a shortage of naphtha, causing a reduction in the load of cracking units in Japan and South Korea and multiple PEPP units in North and Northeast China. The supply contraction in the future is expected to exceed expectations [6] - In March, China's exports increased month-on-month, possibly reaching a new high, further tightening the domestic supply [6] - The demand side is generally weak. Although the operating rate of downstream enterprises has rebounded month-on-month, the transmission of product prices to the end market is difficult, squeezing corporate profits. Some enterprises are forced to sell raw material inventories to recover funds [6] - High raw material prices continue to suppress the willingness to accept end orders, and downstream procurement is cautious, mostly in a wait-and-see state [6] 2. Industry News - On March 31, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.16%. The inventory in the same period last year was 730,000 tons [7] - PE market prices rose. The LLDPE prices in North China were 8,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, in East China were 8,850 - 9,700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,050 - 9,800 yuan/ton [7] - PP market prices fell by 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotes for drawn wire in North China were 8,950 - 9,150 yuan/ton, in East China were 8,900 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,350 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][15][18]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that precious metals are gaining traction amid recession expectations, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.4% and 3.4% respectively, while industrial metals show mixed performance [1][3] - The energy and chemical sectors are experiencing a downturn, with crude oil and fuel prices dropping by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, and chemical products like PVC and methanol seeing declines of 4.5% to 5.4% [1] - A significant capital outflow of 14.3 billion yuan from commodity indices has been noted, with the precious metals sector attracting over 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the oil market, driven by geopolitical tensions and mixed signals regarding military actions in the Gulf region, which contribute to fluctuating prices [2] - The market is transitioning from a narrative of high oil prices driving inflation to one where high oil prices may suppress demand and lead to economic slowdown, with upcoming employment data expected to validate this shift [3] - The report notes that the volatility of gold remains high, with a historical volatility rate of 42.7, suggesting that investors should exercise patience in positioning within the precious metals market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Bullish - Methanol, Urea, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Bottle Chips: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Bearish - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Neutral - Propylene, Plastic, Polypropylene, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Short Fibers, PVC, Caustic Soda, Glass: White stars, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market is significantly affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy regulations. Different chemical products show diverse trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: Futures prices fell on the day. Supply is expected to decline, while demand has improved, and short - term inventory pressure has eased [2] - Plastic and Polypropylene: Futures prices dropped. For polyethylene, supply pressure is not high, and demand has increased slightly. For polypropylene, supply has tightened, but downstream procurement willingness is low, and market transactions are blocked [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fluctuated with oil prices, affected by the US - Iran situation. PTA is facing inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Load decreased slightly, port inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - Short Fibers: Load increased weekly, downstream demand recovery slowed down, and it is affected by the Middle East situation [3] - Bottle Chips: Benefits are acceptable, load decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the industry's load performance [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Futures prices are strong. Supply has decreased, and it fluctuates with crude oil due to geopolitical instability [5] - Styrene: Futures prices fluctuated. Cost support exists, but supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The price on the trading floor dropped. Import supply is expected to tighten, and the market is expected to remain strong [6] - Urea: Futures prices remained high. Production decreased slightly, and the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations under policy restrictions [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC: The price dropped significantly. Supply decline was less than expected, and exports are expected to be good in March - April [7] - Caustic Soda: The price trended weakly. Supply increased, and the decline in futures prices is expected to narrow [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: The price dropped significantly. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to be under pressure at a high level [8] - Glass: The price trended weakly. Inventory pressure is still high, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely in a range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with some commodities like lithium carbonate and container shipping European routes experiencing significant drops, while some precious metals and agricultural products showed gains [6][7] - The market is significantly influenced by the Middle - East situation, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the US - Iran conflict, which has an impact on the supply and price of commodities such as crude oil, asphalt, PP, and plastic [12][13][14] - The supply and demand patterns of various commodities are different. Some commodities are facing supply shortages due to external factors, while some are in a state of relatively balanced supply and demand or have inventory pressure [9][11][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 31, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 8%, container shipping European routes dropped nearly 7%, and LPG dropped nearly 6%. On the upside, silver futures rose over 3%, and gold futures and soybeans rose over 1% [6][7] - In terms of stock index futures, most contracts declined, while most treasury bond futures contracts rose or remained flat [7] - In terms of capital flow, silver 2606, CSI 2606, and ten - year treasury bond 2606 had capital inflows, while lithium carbonate 2605, crude oil 2605, and palm oil 2605 had capital outflows [7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Copper opened high and closed low. Although the shortage of copper ore resources supports the price, the terminal demand feedback is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The CSPT did not set a reference price for the second - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - It opened low and closed low, with a nearly 8% decline. The supply side has potential increases, and the demand side's growth rate has slowed down. The situation of lithium mines in Zimbabwe and China will affect the market [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - The US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The situation in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz issue, has a significant impact on the price. The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, and the risk of price increase still exists [12][13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The supply side is under pressure, with a decline in the start - up rate and planned production. The demand side is gradually recovering. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [14][16] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate is slowly recovering, and the enterprise start - up rate is at a low level. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The start - up rate is at a low level, and the downstream is gradually resuming production. Affected by the Middle - East situation, the supply reduction expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19] 3.2.7 PVC - The start - up rate is increasing, but the downstream has a resistance to high - priced raw materials. The social inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. It is recommended to wait and see [20][22] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - It opened low and closed low. The domestic mine production is recovering, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The market has a low acceptance of high - price coking coal, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the crude oil and conflict situation [23] 3.2.9 Urea - It opened low and closed low, with a weak performance. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is mainly from compound fertilizer factories. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the impact of the situation change is small [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The plastic price is expected to show a strong - side fluctuating trend. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, the downstream shows resistance to high prices and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The situation in the Middle East is changeable, which affects the supply and price of plastics. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - On March 31, the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level. As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has decreased and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1]. - The conflict in the Middle East still exists, the possibility of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Iran is low, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. New production capacities of Basf (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The plastic operating rate has been declining recently [1]. - After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories increased, and the rigid demand was released intensively. During the spring plowing season, the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices, and the spot trading enthusiasm is not high. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz still brings the expectation of reduced plastic supply [1]. 3.2期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions) - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 8,511 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,916 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.48%. The position decreased by 24,962 lots to 299,225 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 300 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8,380 - 9,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10,100 - 11,510 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,400 - 9,840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking) - **Supply**: On March 31, there were little changes in the shutdown devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 80%, at a relatively low level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of March 27, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 2.16 percentage points to 39.75% week - on - week. After the fifth week of the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production one after another, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday normal level, showing seasonal changes in the overall PE downstream operating rate [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 850,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year, and currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also increased by $60/ton to $1,500/ton week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core factor affecting the market, with significant impacts on the prices of various commodities and financial products. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East [2]. - The Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation also has an impact on the market. Powell's remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate hikes [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The possibility of a short - term negotiation agreement between Iran and the US is extremely low. The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk. The long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and the crude - oil related products have strong fundamental support. The absolute price of fuel oil is firm, but the cracking spread has recently declined [20]. - **Asphalt**: Due to concerns about imported raw materials, asphalt supply has shrunk. The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the fundamental improvement gives it upward elasticity [21]. - **Urea**: The market continues to be in high - level consolidation. The daily production has slightly declined, and the agricultural demand is in a phased gap. The industrial downstream support is acceptable. Under the influence of policies, the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, the downstream device start - up has increased, and the market is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the sustainability of downstream high profits [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic petroleum benzene device has many shutdowns and load reductions, and the import has weakened. The port inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle. It follows the raw material fluctuations, and the situation evolution and supply reduction should be continuously monitored [24]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost - side support exists and dominates the market. The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the expectation of supply reduction is still fermenting [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decline, and the demand has improved. The supply pressure of polyethylene is not large, and the demand has increased slightly. The supply of polypropylene has tightened, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and the export is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical impact [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The US - Iran situation is tense, and the prices of PX and PTA are volatile. PTA is burdened by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the downstream recovery is slow. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected to be in high - level oscillation [29]. Metals - **Copper**: The market is still evaluating the ground - combat risk in the Middle East. The overall downward adjustment risk should be noted, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Aluminum**: The overseas shortage expectation has increased, but the short - term war situation is difficult to ease. It is in high - level oscillation and should not be chased up [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum remains around one thousand yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. The cost has increased with the ocean freight. The new plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and it is in oscillation waiting for the Guinean mining policy to be clear [6]. - **Zinc**: The overseas mine supply is tight, the cost support is strong, and the domestic downstream demand shows the characteristics of the peak season. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in range oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in low - level consolidation. The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and it is advisable to try to go long at a low level according to the cost logic [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The demand is less than expected, the inventory is high, and it is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: The price is in a downward trend. The consumption premium has cooled, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a strong oscillation, and the short - term view is to maintain oscillation. Attention should be paid to the demand change in April [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall demand is weak, and the price upward drive depends on the supply side. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is under pressure, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to recover, the demand is improving marginally, and the disk is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production has increased slightly. The disk is affected by the geopolitical conflict and is easy to rise but difficult to fall [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is expected to rise, the demand has increased, and the overall inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflict [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is in a strong oscillation, the demand has resilience, the supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased [18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The expected US new - season soybean planting area has increased. The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is strong due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. Attention should be paid to the procurement trend of Indonesian methanol, the US planting report, and the climate [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [35]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price has stopped falling and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices [36]. - **Corn**: The price may be affected by the increase in wheat auctions. The futures are weak, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [37]. - **Hogs**: The far - month contracts are weak, the industry capacity reduction power is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price stabilizes and rises at a low level [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen, and the planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton inventory is at a relatively high level, and the medium - term strategy is to be bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the new - season Brazilian sugar production is expected to decline. Domestically, it is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and attention should be paid to the weather [41]. - **Apples**: The futures price has corrected at a high level, and the trading logic is mainly on the demand side. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Timber**: The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, the demand is recovering, and the low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are average, the port inventory is at a high level, and it is expected to be in low - level range oscillation [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has bottomed out and rebounded. The short - term focus is on whether there is positive progress in geopolitical issues. It is advisable to go long on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures have risen significantly, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index has risen. The supply in early April is still relatively loose, and the airlines may try to raise prices in late April. The near - and far - month contracts have different trends [19].

Group 1: Methanol - Methanol price data from March 24 to March 30, including动力煤期货, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit [2] - Daily changes on March 30:动力煤期货 remained unchanged,江苏现货 increased by 172,华南现货 increased by 260,鲁南折盘面 increased by 150,西北折盘面 increased by 180,主力基差 increased by 20, and other indicators remained unchanged [2] Group 2: Plastic - Plastic price data from March 24 to March 30, including东北亚乙烯, prices of different types of plastics in different regions, import profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts [12] - Daily changes on March 30:华东LL increased by 175,华东LD increased by 150,华东HD increased by 300,主力期货 decreased by 64, and warehouse receipts decreased by 1512, while other indicators remained unchanged [12] Group 3: Propylene and PP - Propylene and PP price data from March 24 to March 30, including山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, prices of different types of PP in different regions, export profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts [19] - Daily changes on March 30:山东丙烯 increased by 640,华东PP increased by 440,华北PP increased by 380,山东粉料 increased by 300,华东共聚 increased by 250,主力期货 decreased by 44, and warehouse receipts decreased by 5953, while other indicators remained unchanged [19] Group 4: PVC - PVC price data from March 24 to March 30, including西北电石,山东烧碱, prices of different production methods in different regions, import price, export profit, comprehensive profits in different regions, and basis [20][21] - Daily changes on March 30:电石法 - 华东 increased by 10,电石法 - 西北 decreased by 100, and other indicators remained unchanged [21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 8521 yuan/ton, closed at 8313 yuan/ton with a decline of 67 yuan/ton (-0.80%); Plastic 2605 opened at 9241 yuan/ton, closed at 8804 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); Plastic 2609 opened at 8900 yuan/ton, closed at 8684 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); PP2701 opened at 8640 yuan/ton, closed at 8459 yuan/ton with a decline of 22 yuan/ton (-0.26%); PP2605 opened at 9500 yuan/ton, closed at 9269 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton (0.43%); PP2609 opened at 9130 yuan/ton, closed at 8931 yuan/ton with an increase of 32 yuan/ton (0.36%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened higher and moved downward during the session, closing at 8804 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.03%), with a trading volume of 890,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 2555 to 324,187 lots. PP2605 closed at 9269 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (0.43%), with a decrease in positions by 19,730 to 337,600 lots [6] - Supply Situation: The Middle - East conflict led to naphtha shortage, causing cracking units in Japan and South Korea to reduce their loads. Multiple PEPP units in North and Northeast China also reduced their loads. With the new capacity release in the first half of the year in a window period, the subsequent supply contraction is expected to exceed expectations. In addition, Southeast and South Asian regions are seeking alternative sources to the Middle - East, and the domestic exports in March may reach a new high, further tightening the domestic supply [6] - Demand Situation: The overall demand is weak. Although the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased month - on - month, the transmission of product prices to the end - market is not smooth, squeezing the enterprise profits. Some enterprises are forced to sell their raw material inventories to recover funds. High raw material prices continue to suppress the willingness of end - customers to accept orders, and downstream procurement is cautious, mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6] - Market Outlook: The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and substantial supply contraction, maintaining a strong and volatile upward trend. At present, the fundamental contradictions are not yet intense, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On March 30, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 860,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons (11.69%) compared with the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 730,000 tons [7] - Market Prices: PE market prices rose. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, in East China 8850 - 9700 yuan/ton, and in South China 9050 - 9800 yuan/ton. PP market prices rose significantly. The mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 9150 - 9300 yuan/ton, in East China 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton, and in South China 9500 - 9650 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease [9][17][18]