今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-7元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利19元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利51元/吨，内蒙二级焦 平均盈利-51元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利49元/吨。评：春节 后煤矿复产速度将加快，但供应高度仍受政策约束，下游消化 库存为主，焦煤基本面虽有压力但整体矛盾暂不突出，现货预 计弱稳运行，盘面受资金情绪影响预计宽幅震荡运行。 【短评-燃料油】2026年2月份国内炼厂燃料油商品量为 51.34万吨，环比下跌16.59万吨，跌幅24.42%；2月底，山东油 浆市场库存率6.9%，较上月末跌1.3%。山东地区渣油库存率 0.2%，较上月末跌0.8%，山东地区蜡油库存率0.3%，较上月末 跌2.1%。评：供应面看，部分检修地方炼厂3月将逐步复产，但 北方低硫渣油/沥青料外放主力炼厂即将进入检修，涨跌互抵后 燃料油商品量保持下滑趋势，利好燃料油挺价上推。周末期 间，伊朗与美国、以色列之间的地缘冲突已经正式升级，双方 已经开始了数轮的导弹互射，同时伊朗开始着手准备封锁霍尔 木兹海峡。伊朗作为全球高硫燃料油主要供应 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（34）期 发布日期：2026-03-02 | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/3/2 | 2026/3/1 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,078.00 | 1,093.50 | -15.50 | -1.417 | | | 焦炭 | 1,624.50 | 1,635.50 | -11.0 | -0.673 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,990.00 | 17,155.00 | -165.0 | -0.962 | | | 20号胶 | 13,655.00 | 13,765.00 | -110.0 | -0.799 | | | 塑料 | 6,633.00 | 6,597.00 | 36.0 | 0.546 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,641.00 | 6 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 P P 日期 山东丙烯 东北亚丙 烯 华东PP 华北PP 山东粉料 华东共聚 PP美金 PP美湾 出口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2026/02/ 13 6400 785 6455 6555 6500 6840 825 905 -25 6568 -140 45 18679 2026/02/ 24 6500 790 6555 6578 6610 6860 835 950 -26 6746 -140 98 18679 2026/02/ 25 6500 790 6595 6625 6620 6862 845 930 -19 6720 -120 88 21679 2026/02/ 26 6500 790 6610 6610 6570 6800 850 930 -20 6675 -120 87 21679 2026/02/ 27 6450 795 6475 6555 6460 6780 850 930 -10 6611 -120 87 21531 日度变化 -50 5 -135 -55 -110 -20 0 0 9 -64 0 0 -148 观点 盘面维稳，基差弱，华东-200环比-80。进口 ...

为推动垃圾分类落地见效，通州区城管委强化精准督导检查，假期累计检查小区239个，整改各类问题 2391处，整改率100%，引导居民自觉分类投放，重点规范可回收物分类投放标准，让垃圾分类成为新 春文明新风尚。同时，对全区生活垃圾投放点再部署、再摸排，建立点位台账、明确提升时限，推 进"一小区一方案"编制，持续优化投放环境，方便居民精准投放各类可回收物。 与此同时，通州区开展再生资源回收行业安全生产及运营保障专项检查4次，重点排查消防设施、设备 运行、可回收物规范堆放、应急值守等情况，对发现的3处消防设备破损问题当场督促整改，重点规范 纸箱、塑料、金属等可回收物的堆放秩序，压实企业主体责任。 在城管委指导下，全区开展桶前值守、宣传引导、可回收物集中投放等志愿服务，志愿者现场指导居民 区分各类可回收物，帮助居民规范投放纸箱、塑料瓶、旧衣物等物品，累计参与5146人次，服务时长 14535小时，用实际行动传递绿色低碳理念，让文明分类深入人心。 （来源：北京城市副中心报） 本报讯（记者 冯维静）春节期间，通州区城市管理委坚守"垃圾分类不打烊、城市洁净不停歇"工作理 念，统筹抓好分类检查、设施提质、清运保障、安全管控、志 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. The short - term geopolitical sentiment drives up crude oil prices. The short - term trend of the crude oil market depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical products follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil. It is recommended to use a long - short hedging strategy, going long on products with strong fundamentals (such as PX, PTA, EB) and short on those with weak fundamentals (PP, EG, plastics). For soda ash and PVC, which have a low correlation with oil, a short - selling strategy can be adopted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The short - term logic is centered on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment pushes up prices, but the probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 471. It is recommended to wait and hold small - position 04P440 options if available [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. Exports are expected to increase, providing support on the demand side [6][9]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 7700. It is recommended to wait and observe [9]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventory is high, domestic production is recovering rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy of going long on EB and short on BZ [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 6295. It is recommended to wait and observe, and set a stop - loss at 6295 if entered the market the day before [12]. (4) Rubber - Logic: In the short term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction. Due to the seasonal factors and the cost - driven increase from crude oil, natural rubber shows a passive upward trend. However, the medium - term upward logic is not strong, and it is recommended to hold a short - term long position or a long - matching position, but a medium - term short position [14][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 16250. It is recommended to wait and observe [16]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tires is poor, and the fundamental pressure is increasing. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics [17][20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen close to a short - term low. The short - term pressure is at 13220. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 13350 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The intraday trading is within the 7050 - 7500 range. It is recommended to wait and observe [24]. (7) PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 5160. It is recommended to wait and observe [25]. (8) PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with reduced positions. The short - term pressure is at 6730 - 6770. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6770 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: It shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. The restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring may bring high import pressure, but the geopolitical sentiment during the holiday adds uncertainty. The upward space depends on the resolution of the Iran issue [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 2270. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 2265 [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The high - inventory and high - premium pressure of the 05 contract is difficult to change, and the price is more likely to fall [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 3780 - 3800. It is recommended to wait and observe, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 3800 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 6830 - 6860. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6860 [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: It is in a situation of oversupply. New production capacity has been released during the Spring Festival, and demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 1180 - 1190. It is recommended to hold short positions and set a take - profit at 1190 [38]. (13) PVC - Logic: It has a low correlation with oil and is in a situation of oversupply. Inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the real - estate market is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 5010. It is recommended to hold short positions, take half - profit actively, and set a stop - loss at 5010 for the remaining half [40].

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【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月27日 【行情分析】 2月27日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在92%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截 至2月27日当周，PE下游开工率环比春节假期前下降1.58个百分点至18.22%，春节假期，下游多数停 工放假，整体PE下游开工率季节性下滑，目前下游还未完全启动。春节期间石化库存增加48万吨至 94万吨，周五石化早库环比持平于87万吨，较去年农历同期低了4万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前 石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，市场关注美伊谈判，目前中东局势仍存变数，原油价格 大幅波动。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在 2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有下降。目前现货市场刚需成交，谨慎观望，塑料供需格局改善 有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度，目前复产缓慢。由于塑料近日有新增产能 投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约增仓震荡下行，最低价6553元/吨，最高价6641元/吨，最终收盘 ...

沪锡涨超8%，铂涨超5%，硅铁涨超3%，钯、锰硅涨超2%。跌幅方面，氧化铝跌超3%，丙烯、甲醇、 塑料、PVC跌超2%。（AI生成） 沪锡涨超8%，铂涨超5%，硅铁涨超3%，钯、锰硅涨超2%。跌幅方面，氧化铝跌超3%，丙烯、甲醇、 塑料、PVC跌超2%。（AI生成） ...

国内期货市场收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨超8%，铂涨超5%，硅铁涨超3%，钯、锰硅涨超2%。跌幅方面， 氧化铝跌超3%，丙烯、甲醇、塑料、PVC跌超2%。 国内期货市场收盘涨跌不一，沪锡涨超8%，铂涨超5%，硅铁涨超3%，钯、锰硅涨超2%。跌幅方面， 氧化铝跌超3%，丙烯、甲醇、塑料、PVC跌超2%。 ...

国内 期货主力合约涨跌不一，氧化铝跌4%，碳酸锂、聚氯乙烯（ PVC）、丙烯、 甲醇、塑料、多晶 硅跌超2%；涨幅方面，铂涨超5%，沪锡涨超3%，硅铁涨超2%。 ...