Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical news is volatile, causing significant price fluctuations in oil, but the overall trend is upward. Attention should be paid to the rhythm [1][2]. - High - and low - sulfur fuel oils are supported by the cost of crude oil and a tightening supply, and are expected to remain at high levels. However, the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - With the increase in domestic temperature, the demand for asphalt is gradually recovering. It is expected that asphalt prices will be strong, but it is necessary to be wary of the short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends [2][3]. - The polyester industry chain fluctuates with the cost side. The market is waiting for further developments in the situation. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - Natural rubber and butadiene rubber show different trends. The price of natural rubber is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly under geopolitical influence [3][5]. - The inventory of methanol is starting to decline, but the supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [5]. - The supply of polyolefins is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - PVC exports will supplement domestic demand. The overall short - selling pressure remains strong, and attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI May contract closed down $1.50 to $101.38 per barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent May contract closed up $5.57 to $118.35 per barrel, a 4.94% increase; SC2605 closed at 693.9 yuan per barrel, down 55.4 yuan per barrel, a 7.39% decline. Geopolitical news is volatile, and the overall price center is rising. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 closed down 3.79% at 4446 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 4.11% at 5159 yuan per ton. Geopolitical conflicts have limited direct impact on low - sulfur fuel oil supply, but factors such as the increase in overseas diesel cracking and freight rates have affected the supply. It is expected to remain at a high level, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 closed down 1.53% at 4512 yuan per ton. With the increase in temperature, demand is gradually recovering. It is expected that the overall demand will increase in April, and prices are expected to be strong, but the risk of a short - term sharp decline in oil prices after the conflict ends should be noted [2][3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6684 yuan per ton, down 1.24%; EG2605 closed at 5218 yuan per ton, down 2.63%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The industrial chain has different situations, and it fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and equipment changes [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 195 yuan per ton to 16345 yuan per ton; NR fell 240 yuan per ton to 13605 yuan per ton; BR fell 375 yuan per ton to 17350 yuan per ton. The production of natural rubber in Thailand in 2025 increased by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The overseas production area is in a low - yield period, and domestic production areas are gradually starting to harvest. The price is supported by alternative procurement, and the inventory is gradually increasing. Butadiene rubber fluctuates strongly [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 3365 yuan per ton. The MTO arrival volume is at a low level, and the inventory is starting to decline. The supply recovery of Iranian equipment may suppress price increases, and the Iranian situation is unclear [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 9000 - 9300 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to remain low, and the demand is gradually being released. However, the short - term geopolitical risk has compressed the profit space of downstream products, and subsequent demand growth may be hindered [5][6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the prices in East, North, and South China markets decreased. PVC exports will supplement domestic demand, and the overall short - selling pressure remains strong. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of export orders and the Middle East situation [6]. Market News - Iran's President Pezeshkiyan reiterated Tehran's willingness to end the war, but on certain conditions. Even if the conflict ends quickly, it will take weeks or months to restore the global energy transportation system [8]. - OPEC's crude oil production in March dropped to the lowest level since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic in June 2020. The API data shows that for the week ending March 27, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.026 billion barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.21 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.04 million barrels. The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian crude oil and promised to release strategic reserves, but these measures can only make up for the supply gap in a limited time [8]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of multiple main contracts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, and others, covering the time range from 2022 to 2026 [10][13][16][19][22][24][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report presents basis trend charts of multiple main contracts, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [27][31][33]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows spread trend charts of multiple inter - period contracts, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [36][38][42][44][46][48]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides spread and ratio trend charts of multiple inter - variety contracts, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [51][54][56][58]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows production profit and processing fee trend charts of multiple products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [60][61]. Team Member Introduction - **Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute**: Zhong Meiyan, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and providing risk management and investment strategies [65]. - **Director of Energy and Chemical Research**: Du Bingqin, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [66]. - **Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst**: Di Yilin, who has won multiple awards, is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [67]. - **Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene PE/PP/PVC Analyst**: Peng Haibo, with years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, has passed the CFA Level 3 exam and combines financial theory with industrial operations [68].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market maintains a strong and volatile pattern with a rising center of gravity, driven by strong cost support and substantial supply contraction [6] - The current fundamental contradictions are not yet intense, but the market is significantly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil prices, and high volatility risks should be watched out for [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2601 opened lower and declined during the session, closing at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 404 yuan/ton (-4.48%), with a trading volume of 830,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 24,962 to 299,225 lots [6] - PP2605 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 391 yuan (-4.12%), with a decrease in positions by 18,026 to 319,600 lots [6] - The Middle East conflict has led to a shortage of naphtha, causing a reduction in the load of cracking units in Japan and South Korea and multiple PEPP units in North and Northeast China. The supply contraction in the future is expected to exceed expectations [6] - In March, China's exports increased month-on-month, possibly reaching a new high, further tightening the domestic supply [6] - The demand side is generally weak. Although the operating rate of downstream enterprises has rebounded month-on-month, the transmission of product prices to the end market is difficult, squeezing corporate profits. Some enterprises are forced to sell raw material inventories to recover funds [6] - High raw material prices continue to suppress the willingness to accept end orders, and downstream procurement is cautious, mostly in a wait-and-see state [6] 2. Industry News - On March 31, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.16%. The inventory in the same period last year was 730,000 tons [7] - PE market prices rose. The LLDPE prices in North China were 8,700 - 9,800 yuan/ton, in East China were 8,850 - 9,700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,050 - 9,800 yuan/ton [7] - PP market prices fell by 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotes for drawn wire in North China were 8,950 - 9,150 yuan/ton, in East China were 8,900 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,350 - 9,600 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian producing areas is at a low level throughout the year, and the shortage is extreme. The price of glue water has been continuously pushed up in the short term. The tapping rhythm in Yunnan, China, is normal, but the amount of new rubber in the initial stage is limited, and the global supply shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term. The upstream cost supports stock prices. However, as time goes by, the supply pressure will gradually appear. On the demand side, there is still moderate restocking imagination for some agents of un - price - increased brands at the end of the month, and the overall shipment is still supported to a certain extent. However, the terminal demand has no obvious positive guidance, and the market continues to digest inventory. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US - Iran conflict [1]. Crude Oil Industry - The control of the Strait of Hormuz and the security of the energy supply chain have not been alleviated. With the participation of the Houthi armed forces, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. The main line of oil prices is geopolitical support + policy suppression. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there is substantial progress in the negotiation and whether the Mandeb Strait will be blocked. If the situation continues to deteriorate or there are new variables, the crude oil supply will be in a substantial shortage in the near future, and the crude oil still has the momentum to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the suppression of global inflation and the economy by high oil prices, the acceleration of energy substitution, and the continuous uncertainty brought about by geopolitical conflicts [2]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures opened higher and fell slightly at the end of the session. The spot was purchased on demand. The core driver of the current market comes from the supply gap caused by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The downstream demand is resilient, and the valuation is low globally. The export volume has increased, and the domestic and foreign prices have risen synchronously. On the supply side, the profit of coal - to - methanol remains good, but there are slightly more unexpected overhauls recently. In the port market, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has escalated again, and there are doubts about the recovery of shipping capacity. The port inventory is expected to decline significantly for the 05 contract. On the demand side, the downstream olefins are driven by the rising oil price, the profit of the inland coal - integrated plant has strengthened, and the demand for MTO in the port also has a warming expectation. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved, but in a high - volatility market environment, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of sharp unilateral fluctuations and the callback risk brought about by the easing of the geopolitical situation [9]. Urea Industry - On the 30th, the urea futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price remained stable. Some urea plants were shut down briefly this week, and the supply decreased slightly. Driven by the previous buying sentiment, the urea inventory was at a relatively low level, which supported the price. However, the supply pattern was still loose, and the daily output of the industry was at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons. Coupled with the continuous release of reserve supplies, the market supply was still abundant. On the demand side, the agricultural demand entered the connection gap period and gradually weakened. The industrial downstream procurement was mostly cautious and purchased on demand. The overall demand was relatively flat. The market lacked a clear driving force for rise or fall, and it was expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract should focus on the range of 1,830 - 1,900, and pay attention to the progress of downstream demand and policy dynamics [4]. Caustic Soda and PVC Industry - **Caustic Soda**: On the 30th, the caustic soda futures fell sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The supply of caustic soda increased slightly this week, the number of overhaul devices was small, the industry's operating rate increased, and the profit increased significantly. The chlor - alkali enterprises actively increased the device load, and the inventory accumulated. The price of liquid chlorine also rose synchronously. The previous bullish sentiment in exports ebbed, which led to a sharp correction in the market, and negative sentiment gradually emerged. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, and the non - aluminum demand has improved, but the overall supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is still weak. After the sentiment ebbs, the market has declined. Without other driving factors, it is expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [5]. - **PVC**: On the 30th, the PVC futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market maintained a weak range oscillation. There is no demand gap in Asia, especially in the Asian region. Affected by the large number of low - price exports in the early stage and the wait - and - see sentiment of foreign customers towards high prices, the recent export demand has been poor. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market has not been prominent. The non - cost - driven price increase resistance caused by the geopolitical influence in the early stage is relatively large, and the high - price sales of spot goods are difficult. The chemical sentiment has faded, and the PVC price has adjusted accordingly. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC have improved slightly, and the cost side has a large price increase. The price bottom has strong support. Affected by the ebb of the chemical commodity sentiment, it may be weakly adjusted in the short term. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual shutdown rhythm of the devices [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is mainly stable, and the transaction is average. On the supply side, many production lines were shut down for overhaul last week, and the overall supply decreased slightly. It is expected that the production lines will resume this week, and the load will increase. On the demand side, the downstream still purchases on a rigid - demand basis. The float glass is continuously reducing production capacity, and many production lines of photovoltaic glass were shut down last week, showing an overall weak trend. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is basically the same as the previous period, and the de - stocking intensity has weakened. In terms of cost and profit, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) has decreased, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method has been slightly adjusted. As the spring plowing gradually ends, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is strengthened. At the same time, with the strong support of the current spot cost, it is expected that the soda ash will generally oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and take profit on the 5 - 9 reverse spread [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market has average trading, and the spot price is mainly stable. On the supply side, a 600 - ton production line in Guizhou was shut down over the weekend, and it is expected that there will still be production lines for cold repair this week, and the output will continue to decline. On the demand side, the demand for deep - processing and low - e glass remains weak, and the downstream purchases as needed. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is high year - on - year, and the enterprises have great pressure to de - stock. The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. At the same time, the glass is currently close to par, and the support of FG605 at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of about 1,030 is strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the future. If there is no improvement in downstream demand or de - stocking intensity, the price may decline further. Attention can be paid to the inventory and warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The start - up of some Asian refineries has been substantially affected, the load of some domestic and foreign refineries has decreased, and combined with the planned overhaul of some devices, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The prices of downstream products have risen actively, and the load has been maintained, so the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. It is reported that the United States intends to negotiate with Iran, but Iran is still tough, and it is expected that there will still be repetitions. The oil price fluctuates greatly at a high level. In the short term, pure benzene may fluctuate with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the spread between EB05 and BZ05 (currently 1,727) when it is high [7]. - **Styrene**: A set of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul has been postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng has restarted. Currently, the overall supply is maintained. On the demand side, although the downstream load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, and PS factories plan to reduce the load, and the high - price procurement is weak. The supply - demand of styrene has weakened month - on - month, but with the previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene is still tight. Recently, due to the reduction of supply caused by the reduction of refinery load, the price of raw material ethylene has risen sharply, and the profit of styrene has been continuously compressed. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene fluctuates with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is the same as for pure benzene [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: As the Strait blockade time prolongs, the risk of raw material supply interruption for PX factories in Asia is increasing. Some refineries in other Asian countries have continued to reduce their loads, but some domestic devices have postponed their overhauls due to sufficient raw materials. Relatively speaking, the risk of supply interruption in China is slightly smaller. The downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity. In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, but the overall supply - demand expectation of PX in April is tight. Coupled with the current low valuation and the continuous geopolitical situation, the PX price still has support. Strategically, it is recommended to go long at a low position and pay attention to the oil price trend [11]. - **PTA**: Although the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on Asian PX factories, the overall load of PTA has been maintained. However, affected by the high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales have been poor. In April, PTA is expected to have an inventory build - up, and the basis has been weak recently. The downstream cost transmission is not smooth, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity, and the demand side may drag down the raw materials. Overall, PTA has limited self - driving force in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. Strategically, it is the same as for PX, and attention should be paid to the oil price trend [11]. - **MEG**: In the second quarter, the impact of the Middle East situation on ethylene glycol will continue to ferment, and the cost support of ethylene glycol is still strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the influence of the Middle East conflict, the main contradiction in the fundamentals in the second quarter is the significant decline in the domestic and foreign ethylene glycol supply. Many oil - based ethylene glycol devices have reduced their loads, and the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased significantly in the second quarter. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the transportation of goods from Iran, Kuwait, and the east coast of Saudi Arabia, so the import volume is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the port inventory will enter the de - stocking channel. The de - stocking amplitude of ethylene glycol social inventory in the second quarter is considerable. Driven by the Middle East situation, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise in the second quarter. Strategically, before the restoration of oil transportation in the Middle East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is recommended to buy EG call options lightly at a low position [11]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand of short - fiber has weakened month - on - month due to the increase in supply. The Middle East situation is repeated, the oil price remains high, the terminal is reluctant to follow the price increase, and the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber market is in a tug - of - war. The market is cautious and wait - and - see at a high level, and some short - fiber factories and downstream have the intention to moderately reduce production. In the short term, the short - fiber has weak self - driving force and mainly fluctuates with the raw materials. Attention should be paid to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission. Strategically, it is the same as for PX; when the PF disk processing fee is below 800, it is recommended to expand the spread [11]. - **Bottle - chip**: In April, with the warming of the weather and the limited long - term procurement of the downstream at the end of the first quarter this year, the demand is expected to increase in April. It is expected that there will be high - price rigid - demand restocking or concentrated low - price procurement of bottle - chips by the downstream. At the same time, affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the supply of polyester raw materials is in short supply, and it is expected that the cost of crude oil and polyester raw materials will remain high in April, and the supply of bottle - chips is limited. Therefore, the supply - demand of bottle - chips in April is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PR is the same as for PTA; it is expected that the processing fee of the PR main contract disk will be strong, and it is recommended to buy PR call options lightly at a low position [11]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP futures fell on the 30th. The upstream price was inverted, the market was priced by futures - spot traders, and the basis strengthened slightly passively. The trading on Monday was generally neutral. LLDPE and PP continue to have a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. PP is de - stocking, and PE inventory is accumulating. Dynamically, the supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, expected decline in imports, and increase in exports makes the end - of - contract inventory of the 05 contract at a low level. Geopolitical premium and cost support, as well as the reduction in the supply side, still dominate. In April, refineries have shifted from preventive production cuts to substantial production cuts, and raw material interruption and high - price procurement have pushed up costs. The domestic device overhauls and the contraction of overseas imports have further solidified the already tight supply pattern. The core is the underlying logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" that dominates the pricing power. It is expected that the spot will tighten and the basis will strengthen in April [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 0.30% to 16,350 yuan/ton; the full - latex basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.64% to 15,800 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference increased by 8.64% to - 740 yuan/ton; the FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 1.28% to 20.50 Thai baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue water in the international market increased by 2.58% to 79.50; the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 1.49% to 13,600 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue water in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 2.07% to 14,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.61% to - 745 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.94% to 770 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 44.44% to - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 11.09% to 549.00 (unit not specified); Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161.10 (ten tons); India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108.10; in December, China's production decreased by 84.50 to 51.20; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased slightly to 78.24%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires for automobiles increased slightly to 70.75%; in December, the domestic tire production increased by 4.65% to 10,656.3; in February, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 12.40% to 5,607.0 (ten thousand pieces); in February, the total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 28.46% to 46.15; in February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 25.00% to 60.

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 8521 yuan/ton, closed at 8313 yuan/ton with a decline of 67 yuan/ton (-0.80%); Plastic 2605 opened at 9241 yuan/ton, closed at 8804 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); Plastic 2609 opened at 8900 yuan/ton, closed at 8684 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); PP2701 opened at 8640 yuan/ton, closed at 8459 yuan/ton with a decline of 22 yuan/ton (-0.26%); PP2605 opened at 9500 yuan/ton, closed at 9269 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton (0.43%); PP2609 opened at 9130 yuan/ton, closed at 8931 yuan/ton with an increase of 32 yuan/ton (0.36%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened higher and moved downward during the session, closing at 8804 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.03%), with a trading volume of 890,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 2555 to 324,187 lots. PP2605 closed at 9269 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (0.43%), with a decrease in positions by 19,730 to 337,600 lots [6] - Supply Situation: The Middle - East conflict led to naphtha shortage, causing cracking units in Japan and South Korea to reduce their loads. Multiple PEPP units in North and Northeast China also reduced their loads. With the new capacity release in the first half of the year in a window period, the subsequent supply contraction is expected to exceed expectations. In addition, Southeast and South Asian regions are seeking alternative sources to the Middle - East, and the domestic exports in March may reach a new high, further tightening the domestic supply [6] - Demand Situation: The overall demand is weak. Although the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased month - on - month, the transmission of product prices to the end - market is not smooth, squeezing the enterprise profits. Some enterprises are forced to sell their raw material inventories to recover funds. High raw material prices continue to suppress the willingness of end - customers to accept orders, and downstream procurement is cautious, mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6] - Market Outlook: The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and substantial supply contraction, maintaining a strong and volatile upward trend. At present, the fundamental contradictions are not yet intense, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On March 30, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 860,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons (11.69%) compared with the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 730,000 tons [7] - Market Prices: PE market prices rose. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, in East China 8850 - 9700 yuan/ton, and in South China 9050 - 9800 yuan/ton. PP market prices rose significantly. The mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 9150 - 9300 yuan/ton, in East China 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton, and in South China 9500 - 9650 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease [9][17][18]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2026, geopolitical conflicts reversed the supply - demand pattern of PE and PP. With rising costs and reduced domestic and foreign supply, prices showed a unilateral increase with a quarterly amplitude of over 40%. In Q2, geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of supply contraction, and demand determines the upside space. The supply - side core variables depend on import reduction and inventory device maintenance. The continuous reduction of upstream production supports the bottom of the disk price. The key to price continuation in Q2 lies in the downstream's acceptance of prices. Considering the low value and wide application of polyolefin end - products, the downstream's price - bearing capacity is expected to be stronger. Currently, the industrial explicit inventory has dropped to a low level, and the supply - demand expectation of the 05 contract is positive [4][69]. - The operation suggestion is to buy on dips for single - side trading. The L main contract should focus on the range of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract on the same range. For arbitrage, long the 5 - month contract and short the 9 - month contract [5][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Unilateral Soaring and Structural Reversal - Unilateral perspective: In Q1 2026, polyolefins rose sharply with increased volatility. The plastic main contract fluctuated between 6433 - 9523 yuan/ton with an amplitude of 48%, and the PP main contract between 6309 - 9393 yuan/ton with an amplitude of 41%. Affected by cost support, it continued the rebound at the end of last year. Then, rumors of naphtha consumption tax reform and the North American cold wave drove the price up by over 10%. Before the Spring Festival, the price retreated. After the festival, the US - Iran conflict broke out, with cost increase and raw material interruption leading to a continuous intensification of supply - side contraction, and PE and PP both rose by over 30% in three weeks [9]. - Spot - futures perspective: From January to February, the basis was stable. After the war, the basis volatility increased. At the beginning of the war, the near - month supply - demand was more affected, and the basis strengthened. Later, with the negative feedback of terminal demand, the basis weakened rapidly. The PP basis fluctuation was similar to that of PE, but the inventory reduction was more significant [10]. - Cross - variety perspective: The maintenance rhythm of PE and PP was slightly different, and the LP05 spread continued to compress. From January to February, the cumulative year - on - year production of PE and PP was 11.3% and 4.9% respectively. PP maintenance was stronger. The monomer US dollar prices also differed, and the LP05 spread fell from a high of 230 yuan/ton to - 353 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2. Geopolitical Tensions Intensify Supply Contraction Expectations 3.2.1. Little New Capacity Release in the First Half of the Year - In 2026, the planned new PE capacity is 645 tons (year - on - year + 15.7%), and the planned new PP capacity is 505 tons (year - on - year + 10.3%). For the 05 contract, PP has no new capacity release, and PE has pressure from the commissioning of two enterprises. For the 09 contract, focus on the commissioning progress of Huajin Aramco. Most new devices are concentrated in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is relatively under pressure. Overall, the two PE devices commissioned at the beginning of the year produce non - standard products, and the remaining new devices are concentrated in the second half of the year. The 05 contract will not face new capacity expansion, and the supply - side trading will focus on import reduction and inventory maintenance [21]. 3.2.2. Raw Material Shortage Leads to Continuous Supply Contraction - As of March 24, the capacity utilization rates of PE and PP dropped to 76% and 70% respectively, the lowest in the past five years. The impact of raw material shortage on supply contraction is gradually emerging. The impact is transmitted through three process routes: oil - based process, PDH process, and MTO process. The oil - based process is affected by the shortage of crude oil and naphtha, leading to the maintenance of downstream PE and PP devices. The PDH process has a high adjustment ability for the supply side, and the profit loss has intensified, with the theoretical profit loss approaching 4000 yuan/ton. The MTO process is less affected, with the MTO - made PE and PP capacities accounting for less than 5% of the total [25][26]. 3.2.3. Logistics Disruptions Intensify Import Contraction Expectations - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative PE imports were 232 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. The Persian Gulf is the main import source. With the extension of the war, it has changed from logistics interruption to substantial supply contraction. The control time of the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable. Even if import substitution can be sought from other regions, it will significantly impact the total import volume. The import windows of LL, LD, and HD are closed, and the domestic re - export behavior has increased significantly. For PP, the import growth rate has accelerated its decline, and the trade with the Persian Gulf is relatively limited. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has little direct impact on PP imports [46][47]. 3.2.4. Improved Profits Intensify Export Expansion Expectations - In January - February 2026, China's cumulative PE exports were 18 tons, with a growth rate of 62%. As the domestic and foreign price difference compresses, the export space is expected to open up. For PP, it has turned into a net - export structure, and the export dependence has continued to increase. In January - February 2026, the cumulative PP exports were 53 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export is mainly to neighboring countries. As the Middle - East logistics is blocked and the cracking in Asia is reduced, the domestic export profit has improved, and the export growth rate is expected to further expand after March [50]. 3.2.5. Insufficient Downstream Price Follow - up, Focus on Price Transmission Progress - Due to the greater impact on the cost side, the price increases in different parts of the industrial chain vary. As of March 25, the PE and PP spot - futures prices increased by over 30% compared with before the US - Iran war, but the downstream prices generally followed up insufficiently. The price transmission of PP downstream is relatively smooth, while the plastic downstream is more sensitive to prices and generally follows up insufficiently. The key to the price trend in Q2 lies in whether the terminal demand can form a positive feedback. If the terminal product prices can follow the upstream cost increase, it is expected to stimulate downstream replenishment demand [59]. 3.2.6. Industrial Chain Explicit Inventory Reduction - As of the end of March, the polyolefin market showed a differentiated pattern of stable PE inventory and accelerated PP inventory reduction. The latest PE commercial total inventory is 125 tons, a slight increase of 7 tons compared with the same period last year. LD has the strongest inventory reduction, and LL has accelerated inventory reduction from a high level. The PP inventory reduction is stronger, with the latest commercial total inventory reduced by 33 tons to 75 tons, the lowest in the past five years, and the monthly inventory reduction amplitude setting a record [64]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In Q2, geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of supply contraction, and demand determines the upside space. The supply - side core variables depend on import reduction and inventory device maintenance. The upstream continuous production reduction supports the bottom of the disk price. The key to price continuation in Q2 lies in the downstream's acceptance of prices. Considering the low value and wide application of polyolefin end - products, the downstream's price - bearing capacity is expected to be stronger. Currently, the industrial explicit inventory has dropped to a low level, and the supply - demand expectation of the 05 contract is positive. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips for single - side trading. The L main contract should focus on the range of 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract on the same range. For arbitrage, long the 5 - month contract and short the 9 - month contract [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Rubber Industry - The market sentiment has eased with the expectation of a cease - fire and peace talks between the US and Iran, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in rubber prices. However, as the domestic rubber - producing areas are fully tapped, supply pressure will gradually dominate the market, and rubber prices are expected to remain under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran conflict [2][4]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is volatile, and the spot price has risen slightly. The current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term, and the spot market deviates from the futures. The supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is generally cautious. Policy factors suppress prices, and the short - term rise in futures driven by emotions cannot be transmitted to the spot market. The urea market is highly volatile in the short term due to the expected escalation of the Middle East conflict [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - For caustic soda, the supply has further decreased this week, the profit has increased significantly, and the export expectation is high. Although the downstream demand has improved, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. The price has been affected by the Middle East conflict and has fluctuated sharply, and it has fallen recently as the market sentiment has ebbed. For PVC, the futures price has weakened, and the spot price has retreated from a high level. The ethylene - based PVC has a rising trend driven by cost, while the calcium - carbide - based PVC has insufficient upward momentum. The overall market price is likely to be difficult to fall, but regional trends and raw material prices should be carefully observed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For glass, the spot price is stable, the supply has shrunk, and the demand is weak. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is expected to be a game between supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, with a weak and volatile trend. For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The weekly output has shown a declining trend due to equipment maintenance, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is also expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, some Asian refineries' operations are affected, and the supply is expected to decline. The downstream product prices are rising, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. However, the short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices, and it may fluctuate with oil prices. For styrene, the overall supply is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is still tight. The profit has been continuously compressed due to the sharp rise in raw material ethylene prices, and the absolute price also fluctuates with oil prices [8]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market is highly volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply side shows an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has a warming expectation for MTO demand in ports. Currently, the decrease in imports dominates the market, but the sustainability of demand and policy risks should be noted [9]. LPG Industry - No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data show that LPG prices have fallen, and the inventory of refineries and ports has increased. The upstream refinery operating rate has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has increased [10]. Crude Oil Industry - The current conflict in the Middle East has entered the fourth week, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. The market sentiment has eased, but there are doubts about the negotiation and cease - fire. The oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, mainly supported by geopolitics and suppressed by policies. Short - term attention should be paid to the actual通航 recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decrease further, and the downstream polyester has a cost - transmission problem, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term trend is dragged down by falling oil prices. For PTA, there is an inventory - accumulation expectation, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. For ethylene glycol, the cost support is strong, the supply has decreased significantly, and the price has the momentum to rise. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and it mainly fluctuates with raw materials. For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to be strong [13]. Polyolefin Industry - Affected by the expectation of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, the polyolefin futures market has fallen significantly, and the basis has strengthened passively. The current fundamentals are based on the logic of "strong cost and reduced supply", but the downstream demand is limited. The unilateral price fluctuates greatly, and long - positions can be reduced [14]. 3. Summary by Directory Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various rubber products have shown different degrees of changes, such as the increase in the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex and the decrease in the price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna. The basis of some products has also changed [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads between different contracts have changed, such as the change in the 9 - 1 spread and the 1 - 5 spread [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in different countries and regions in different months has changed, and the operating rates of tire enterprises and the production and export volume of tires have also fluctuated. The inventory of rubber in bonded areas and warehouses has also shown different trends [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [5]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials have changed slightly, such as the increase in the price of动力煤 in Yijinhuoluo Banner [5]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions have shown different trends, with some prices rising slightly [5]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea has decreased, the inventory of enterprises and ports has decreased, and the order days of production enterprises have increased [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products in the spot and futures markets have changed, with some prices rising and some falling [6]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have increased [6]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have decreased, and the profits of different production methods have changed [6]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC in factories and society have decreased [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of glass and soda ash products have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads changing [7]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The daily melting volume of glass has decreased, and the weekly production of soda ash has increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of glass and soda ash in factories have decreased, and the inventory days of glass factories' soda ash have increased [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real - estate data such as new construction area, sales area, and construction area have shown different trends [7]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products have also changed [8]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of benzene - styrene products in the spot and futures markets have changed [8]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed [8]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports have changed, and the operating rates of related industries in the产业链 have also changed [8]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of methanol futures contracts and spot prices have changed, with some prices falling and some spreads narrowing [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of methanol in enterprises and ports have decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol have changed, with the operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises increasing and the operating rate of some downstream industries also changing [9]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have fallen, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **LPG Outer - Market Prices**: The outer - market prices of LPG have increased [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of LPG in refineries and ports have increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries have changed [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil products such as Brent, WTI, and SC have changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties have also changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products and the spreads between different contracts have changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed, with some prices falling and some cash flows improving [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX products have changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA products have changed, and there is an inventory - accumulation expectation [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG products have changed, and the supply has decreased significantly [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts have fallen [14]. - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of polyolefin products have changed, and the spreads between different products and contracts have also changed [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of PE and PP have changed [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventories of PE and PP in enterprises and society have decreased [14].

Report Title - The report is titled "Polyolefin Weekly Report: Strong Cost Support, Oscillating Bullishly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For plastics, with continuous tight ethylene supply, increasing supply maintenance, and a 35% increase in Northeast Asian ethylene to $1350/ton, the cost support is strong. Before the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to continue the bullish trend, with buying on dips as the main strategy [4] - For PP, the PDH profit is compressed to a historical low, and the maintenance intensity is expected to increase. Before the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the market is expected to continue the bullish trend, and PP can be the preferred long - position variety in the olefin sector [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Plastic**: In the 12th week, it continued to oscillate bullishly. It opened slightly lower at 8344 on Monday, fell to the weekly low of 8288, then rose and fell back. From Tuesday to Wednesday, the chemical market sentiment cooled, and the volatility decreased. On Thursday, affected by the attack on the Pars gas field, it gapped up 269 to 8700, reached a maximum of 9147, and finally closed at 8818, with an amplitude of 859 [3][13] - **PP**: In the 12th week, it also continued to oscillate bullishly. It opened slightly lower at 8550 on Monday, fell to the weekly low of 8447, then rose and fell back. On Thursday, affected by the attack on the Pars gas field, it gapped up 377 to 9005, reached a maximum of 9348, with an amplitude of 901 [7][16] 2. Capital - As of Thursday this week, the main contract position of PP was 360,000 lots, and that of PE was 340,000 lots [20][22] 3. Basis - As of Thursday this week, the main contract basis of plastic was - 567 yuan/ton, and that of PP was - 303 yuan/ton [25] 4. Month - to - Month Spread - As of Thursday this week, the L59 spread was 235 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 513 yuan/ton [28] 5. Cross - Variety Spread - As of Thursday this week, the LP05 spread was - 201 yuan/ton, and the MTO05 spread was - 377 yuan/ton [33] 6. Industry Chain - The cost side has strong support, and both ethylene and propylene monomers have strengthened rapidly [35] 7. Production and Capacity Utilization - **PE**: This week's output was 660,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 88%, declining for 4 consecutive weeks and reaching a 5 - year low. Some refineries reduced their loads due to raw material issues [51] - **PP**: This week's output was 730,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The capacity utilization rate was 70%, and some PDH plants began to restart [54] 8. Import and Export - **PE**: In 2025, the monthly average import volume was 1.16 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8.4%). By variety, the cumulative year - on - year decreases of LL, LD, and HD were 4.7%, 8.2%, and 11.8% respectively. The monthly average export volume was 70,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 22%) [60] - **PP**: From January to February 2025, the monthly average import volume was 250,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 13.4%), and the monthly average export volume was 270,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 30%). The export profit soared [62][63] 9. Demand - In 2025, the monthly average export value of plastics and products was $12.6 billion (year - on - year increase of 21%), and the proportion of the export value to the United States was 14% [74] 10. Inventory - **PE**: This week's commercial inventory was 1.24 million tons (week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons) [76] - **PP**: This week's commercial inventory was 860,000 tons (week - on - week decrease of 77,000 tons), and it has been accelerating inventory reduction for 3 consecutive weeks [76] 11. Propylene Market Review - **Supply**: PDH operation rate is still at a low level compared to the same period [97] - **Demand**: There is significant negative feedback from downstream [99] - **Inventory**: It remains at a high level [102] Strategies For Plastics - **Single - side trading**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of 8700 - 9700 yuan/ton for L2605 [6] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the calendar spread long position [6] - **Hedging**: At a low basis, opportunistically conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [6] - **Options**: With the VIX at a historical high, the previous long positions can opportunistically sell call options to realize profits [6] For PP - **Single - side trading**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of 8900 - 9900 yuan/ton for PP2605 [10] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the calendar spread long position [10] - **Hedging**: At a low basis, opportunistically conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage [10] - **Options**: With the VIX at a historical high, the previous long positions can opportunistically sell call options to realize profits [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: March 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, affecting the supply of energy products. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices will remain strong but volatile. The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and a substantial contraction in supply, maintaining a relatively strong and upward - trending pattern. The pulp market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with low - level fluctuations. The soda ash market is under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. The glass market is in a dilemma, with high inventory and potential production capacity release suppressing the upside, while losses and cold - repair expectations provide some support [7][53][87][126][145] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures have different price trends. The Middle East situation affects supply, and the IEA's joint release of reserves and the US's relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela can relieve some supply tensions. Before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, oil prices are strong but volatile, and a bullish call spread can be considered [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Middle Eastern countries are forced to cut production. The US takes measures to relieve supply tensions. High - frequency data shows changes in US crude oil and refined product inventories. The EIA has adjusted its supply - demand expectations and raised the average price forecast for Brent in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10][11] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to cost - push price increases. PX and PTA enterprises may cut production, and the polyester downstream has increased demand but poor sales. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease, and the market price is expected to be strong [28][29] - **Main Driving Forces**: The downstream consumption of polyester is weak, and the support for PTA and ethylene glycol is limited. PX prices may rise steadily, and PTA production is expected to increase. The ethylene glycol market is expected to be strong due to supply and cost factors [30][32][34] Polyolefins - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures and spot prices of polyolefins have different trends. The market is affected by the Middle East situation, with strong cost support and supply contraction, but weak demand. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways trend in the short term [42][53][54] - **Fundamental Changes**: The production of polypropylene and polyethylene has different changes, with some devices restarting and some under maintenance. The production profit of different raw materials varies. The inventory of polyolefins is high, and the downstream start - up level is different [55][56][67] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price has declined. The macro - environment and fundamentals affect the market, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and low - level fluctuations [86][87] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, inventory, and downstream market conditions show different trends, with overall supply exceeding demand [88][93][103] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price shows a downward trend. In the short term, the price may fluctuate greatly, and in the long term, it is under downward pressure. It is necessary to wait for capacity clearance [126][128] - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, with high production and inventory. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure remains. The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [130][135][142] Glass - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The glass futures price continues to decline. The price is in a dilemma, with high inventory suppressing the upside and losses providing some support. It is necessary to pay attention to real - estate sales data [145][146] - **Glass Market Situation**: The glass supply is at a low level, with reduced production and capacity utilization. The inventory shows a contraction trend but remains high. The spot price is stable with a slight increase, affected by cost and supply factors. The import and export volume has different trends, and the upstream soda ash is in an oversupply situation. The downstream consumption is weak [148][151][155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm. The energy market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, and geopolitical conflicts and concerns about economic downturn are dragging down asset prices [1][3]. - The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened due to the closure of the east - west arbitrage window. The demand from domestic refineries and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high. The supply is expected to decrease due to geopolitical conflicts and some refineries' focus on refined oil supply. The demand is expected to increase in April [3][4]. - The short - term polyester price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation. The cost is rising and the supply is shrinking, while the downstream demand is weak [4]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge. The price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate with geopolitical situations and oil prices, and natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [6]. - The methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scope of Iran's retaliation, changes in geopolitical conflicts, and the actual resumption progress of downstream MTO devices [6]. - The polyolefin market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins and potentially hindering demand growth [8]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening rapidly. Supply is expected to remain high, and demand will gradually recover [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI April contract closed down 0.18 dollars to 96.14 dollars per barrel, a 0.19% decline; Brent May contract closed up 1.27 dollars to 108.65 dollars per barrel, a 1.18% increase; SC2605 closed at 757.1 yuan per barrel, down 46.3 yuan per barrel, a 5.76% decline. Geopolitical events such as Iran's warning and attacks on oil facilities in the Middle East have affected the market. The overall oil price shows a volatile and upward - trending rhythm [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.91% to 5011 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 10.45% to 6170 yuan per ton. As of March 16, the land - based fuel oil inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased. The short - term high and low - sulfur cracking spreads are expected to remain high [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.32% to 4635 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to remain high [3][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6834 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; EG2605 closed at 5220 yuan per ton, up 7.65%. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price will experience a high - level correction and oscillation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 fell 310 yuan per ton to 16090 yuan per ton; the NR contract fell 180 yuan per ton to 12925 yuan per ton; the butadiene rubber contract BR rose 280 yuan per ton to 15540 yuan per ton. The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber may further diverge [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol futures and spot prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. Attention should be paid to multiple variables such as Iran's retaliation and downstream device resumption [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream device maintenance plans increase, and the downstream factory operating load rises. The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but short - term geopolitical risks push up costs, squeezing downstream profit margins [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China are adjusted upwards. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method is strengthening. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The document provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on March 19 and 18, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantile information [9]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have become "legitimate targets for attack". The Habshan gas facility in the UAE has been temporarily shut down, and the Ahmadi Port refinery in Kuwait has been attacked [11]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) detailed the specific composition of the approximately 400 million - barrel strategic oil reserve release plan. The release will mainly consist of crude oil, and in Europe, it will mainly be in the form of refined oil. The specific allocation ratio between crude oil and refined oil may change [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document provides line charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibers, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17][20][24]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document provides line charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][30][33][34][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][48][50][52]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The document provides line charts showing the spreads and ratios between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [55][58][59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document provides line charts showing the production profits of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fees, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [63][64][66]. 3.5 Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises and formulating risk management and investment strategies [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of the Energy and Chemical Research Department of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry, has won multiple awards and is often interviewed by the media [70]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and polyester analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis and has strong logical thinking [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory - industry operation combination [72].