Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The disk oscillated and declined, with the basis at -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31), and 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihood in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low, and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market - On March 31, the PG2605 contract closed at 6339 (-267) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 139 (-31) and 0 warehouse receipts (-1300). The night session closed at 6501 (+162), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 166 (+27). [1] - Constrained by the successive decline of the related oil product market, the refinery's willingness to support the market is not strong. Shandong civil gas was at 6370 (-81), Shandong ether - post at 6510 (-40), Shandong propane at 6807 (-25), and Longkou Port propane at 7500 (+0). [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The basis was -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread was 193 (+31), and there were 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). Shandong civil gas was at 6100 (+110), East China civil gas at 7065 (+876), and South China civil gas at 7205 (+905). [1] - The FEI month spread was 104 US dollars (-8), the oil - gas ratio oscillated, and the internal and external PG - FEI c2 reached 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -122 (-46). [1] - Propane import profit increased significantly. The spot profit of Chinese PDH - made propylene weakened to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China oscillated significantly. [1] - The port inventory ratio was 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume was 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization was 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release was 51.78 tons (-3.36%). [1] - The PDH operating rate was 63.6% (-2.03pct); the utilization rate of alkylated oil production capacity was 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate was 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order was 0 tons (-4.5). [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The PP price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply reduction expectation of PP remains due to the un - restored navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, the market is affected by the Middle - East situation, and the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased by 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the start - up rate has not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14%. On March 31, the parking devices changed little, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises remained at about 73%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 27.5%. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and it is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The Middle - East conflict still exists, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. The start - up rate of devices has decreased again. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute. The Middle - East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on imports from the Middle - East, its upstream depends on liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil from the Middle - East. The PP production capacity in the Middle - East accounts for 9% of the world and about 25% of the world's polyolefin exports, affecting international prices and supply. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the load reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, with light spot transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 9019 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 9393 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 9103 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.12%. The position decreased by 18026 lots to 319551 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawing was reported at 8480 - 9180 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 31, the parking devices changed little, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises remained at about 73%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased by 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has a low acceptance of high - priced raw materials, the demand is slowly recovering, and the start - up rate has not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14% [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 850000 tons week - on - week, 30000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10/ton to $1290/ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PP: ★★, indicating a strong bullish bias, with a view of "stronger" [2] - PVC: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PTA/PX: ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Methanol: ★, with a "cautiously bullish" view [6] - Urea: ★, with a "bullish" direction [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, with an "oscillation" view [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products, including L, PP, PVC, PTA/PX, MEG, methanol, urea, and caustic soda. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and provides investment outlooks and price ranges [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Product L - **Core View**: The social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [9][11] - **Main Logic**: Social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and ethylene is trading at a high level. New device maintenance in Lanzhou Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to 20%. More device maintenance is planned before early April, tightening the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][11] PP - **Core View**: Supported by cost, the market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 9000 - 9800 yuan/ton [12][15] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and supply continues to shrink. New device maintenance in Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to a historical high of 28%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and there is significant room for PDH profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the downstream transmission progress [2][15] PVC - **Core View**: The inventory reduction slope has slowed down, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton [16][19] - **Main Logic**: The ethylene price is high, and the FOB price in Tianjin has decreased. Inventory reduction is slow. The start - up of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC plants is diverging. The high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [2][19] PTA - **Core View**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost support, it is recommended to buy on dips. The price range is expected to be between 6620 - 7020 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical conflict shows no sign of significant easing. The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has seen some recovery in domestic devices, while the demand side has a slight decline in polyester load. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level. The cost side is affected by the geopolitical conflict [20][21] MEG - **Core View**: With reduced imports and cost support, the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 5280 - 5580 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous load reduction of domestic and overseas devices. The inventory at ports is at a low level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The demand side has a slight decline in polyester load [22][23] Methanol - **Core View**: Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the fundamentals are improving. The market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 3250 - 3450 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of the methanol main contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has domestic load - increase and overseas load - reduction. The demand side has weak - stable downstream demand, and the traditional demand is seasonally warming up. The port inventory is decreasing rapidly [26] Urea - **Core View**: Although the fundamentals are weak, there is an export expectation, and the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 1880 - 1920 yuan/ton [27][29] - **Main Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea is over 3000 yuan/ton, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has a slight decline in production but is still at a high level. The demand side is recovering, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The cost side provides support [27][28][29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The start - up increase has led to a slight increase in factory inventory, and the market is oscillating. The price range is expected to be between 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton [30][31] - **Main Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the basis has strengthened. High inventory restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week and is expected to continue to increase this week. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance progress and changes in export orders [2][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The disk fluctuates and declines, with the latest basis at -588 (+457) and the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31) [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, US terminal operations are at full capacity, April inventory is still supported, but subsequent supply shortages may become more prominent [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Quotes - Shandong civil LPG is 6430 (+0), Shandong ether - after LPG is 6550 (+50), Shandong propane is 6832 (+276), and Longkou Port propane is 7500 (+0) [1] - Platts assesses the CP South China CIF CFR discount at 358.5 (+20) at 6:30 pm on Monday, and the CFR price is 1013.5 (+35) [1] - At 11 pm on Monday, FEI is reported at 925.5 (+29.5), the 4 - 5 month spread is 105 (+3), and the 5 - 6 month spread is 77 (+9) [1] - PG - FEI05 internal - external spread is 136.8 (-37.9), and FEI - MOPJ is - 124 (-11) [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The basis is -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread is 193 (+31), and the number of warehouse receipts is 1300 (-1800) [1] - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after LPG at 6080 (+130) [1] - Shandong civil LPG is 6100 (+110), East China civil LPG is 7065 (+876), and South China civil LPG is 7205 (+905) [1] - The FEI month spread is 104 US dollars (-8), and the oil - gas ratio fluctuates [1] - The internal - external PG - FEI c2 is 156 (+13) [1] - The South China CP propane CIF discount is 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrows to -122 (-46) [1] - Propane import profit rises significantly [1] - The spot profit of China's PDH - made propylene weakens to 734 (-611), and the paper futures of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly [1] - The port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity is 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%) [1] - PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct), alkylated oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct), MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct), and MTBE export orders are 0 tons (-4.5) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Strong bias [1] - PP: Strong bias [1] - PVC: Oscillation [1] - PTA/PX: Bullish direction [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish direction [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [5] - Urea: Bullish direction [5] - Caustic soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and the supply - side contraction in the energy and chemical sectors continues to intensify. The cost of raw materials is strong, and the supply - demand patterns of various products are showing different trends [1][4][5]. - For some products, the high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market, while for others, the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals and cost support drive the price to maintain a strong or bullish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Variety L - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: Geopolitical tensions persist, supply contraction intensifies, and ethylene prices are consolidating at a high level. Newly added domestic device overhauls increase the parking ratio to 20%, and more device overhauls are planned before early April, making the supply - demand pattern gradually tighten [1][10]. - **Market data**: L05 closing price is 8868 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 910,000 lots, down 11.6% [8]. PP - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: The cost of propane and methanol is strong, PDH profits are compressed to a historical low, and upstream overhauls continue. The domestic device parking ratio remains at a historical high of 26%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving, with high upward repair space for PDH profits [1][14]. - **Market data**: PP05 closing price is 9313 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 1.13 million lots, down 17.1% [12]. PVC - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The first - round price increase of semi - coke this year slows down the de - stocking slope of the upstream and mid - stream, and the market fluctuates widely. The shortage of ethylene raw materials intensifies the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene - based PVC, and some domestic ethylene - based devices start to reduce loads. The caustic - soda method starts to increase to the highest level in the same period, and high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [1][18]. - **Market data**: V05 closing price is 5615 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 2.39 million lots, down 9.9% [16]. PTA - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has not eased, the valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. The supply - side domestic devices have recovered, and the PTA load is 79.9%. The downstream polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average. The PTA inventory has slightly decreased from a high level, and the cost side is affected by the geopolitical situation, with the PX device slightly reducing the load [4][20]. - **Market data**: TA05 closing price is 6778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day; the PTA social inventory is 14.01 days, down 0.65 days [19]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. Geopolitical conflicts have not eased, and domestic and foreign devices continue to reduce loads. The import volume is expected to shrink in March - April, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period, with the social inventory continuing to decline. The polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average [4][22]. - **Market data**: EG05 closing price is 5279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day; the MEG social inventory in China is 2.038 million tons, down 39,800 tons [21]. Methanol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical uncertainty still exists, the valuation is high, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The supply - side domestic devices increase the load while foreign devices reduce the load. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the traditional downstream starts to pick up seasonally. The port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [5][25]. - **Market data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the term structure is in a back state [25]. Urea - **Core view**: Bullish direction [5] - **Main logic**: The price difference between domestic and foreign urea is more than 3000 yuan/ton, but urea exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply - side start - up has declined but is still at a high level in the same period, and the daily production is 214,700 tons. The demand side has recovered, the compound fertilizer start - up has continued to increase, and the industrial demand is improving steadily. The plant inventory is continuously de - stocking. The cost side has support, and attention should be paid to the urea export policy in the middle and late stages of domestic spring plowing [5][27][28]. - **Market data**: UR05 closing price is 1877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the urea plant inventory in China is 700,500 tons, down 108,400 tons [26]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the basis has strengthened, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week, and there are still plans to increase the load this week, with the start - up expected to continue to increase. The ECU profit in Shandong has recovered, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and changes in export order volumes [1][30]. - **Market data**: SH05 closing price is 2442 yuan/ton, down 2.7% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 360,000 lots, up 0.3% [29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures price fluctuates and declines, with the latest basis at -588 (+457), and the May - June spread at 193 (+31). The number of warehouse receipts is 1300 lots (-1800), with Jingbo having a reduction of 1800. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 6080 (+130). Shandong civil LPG is at 6100 (+110), East China civil LPG at 7065 (+876), and South China civil LPG at 7205 (+905). The FEI monthly spread is 104 US dollars (-8), and the oil - gas ratio fluctuates. The internal and external PG - FEI c2 reaches 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount is 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrows, with the latest at -122 (-46). Propane import profit rises significantly. The spot profit of China's PDH - made propylene weakens, with the latest at 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly. The port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization is 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%). The PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct); the alkylation oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order is 0 tons (-4.5). Overall, the conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. The PG May - June spread valuation is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From March 23 - 27, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis are presented with daily data and their corresponding changes. For example, on March 23, South China LPG was 7080, and on March 27, it was 7205, with a daily change of -15 on March 27 compared to the previous day [1] Weekly Outlook - Futures price: Fluctuates and declines, with the basis and month - spread changes as mentioned above [1] - Warehouse receipts: 1300 lots (-1800), with Jingbo having a reduction of 1800 [1] - Deliverable: The cheapest is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 6080 (+130) [1] - Civil LPG prices: Shandong at 6100 (+110), East China at 7065 (+876), South China at 7205 (+905) [1] - FEI - related data: FEI monthly spread is 104 US dollars (-8), FEI - MOPJ spread is -122 (-46) [1] - Oil - gas ratio: Fluctuates [1] - PG - FEI c2: Reaches 156 (+13) [1] - Propane discounts: South China CP propane arrival discount is 368 (-133), AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane FOB discounts are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively [1] - Profit situation: Propane import profit rises significantly; China's PDH - made propylene spot profit weakens to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly [1] - Inventory and operation data: Port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), factory storage capacity utilization is 24.92% (-1.13pct), external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%). PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct), alkylation oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct), MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct), MTBE export order is 0 tons (-4.5) [1] - Market judgment: The US - Iran conflict shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, April inventory has support, but subsequent supply shortage may be more prominent. There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. The PG May - June spread valuation is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP's domestic supply - demand pattern has improved, but the Middle East situation is volatile, causing large market fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily exit the market and observe, while paying attention to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly as they were less accepting of high - priced raw materials. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [1] - On March 26, new shutdown devices such as the third line of Ningxia Baofeng and the first line of Maoming Petrochemical were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 73%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29% [1][4] - After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and it is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1] - The cost of crude oil dropped from a high level and then stabilized. There were reports of potential negotiations between the US and Iran, but Iranian officials denied it. The Middle East situation affects energy and chemical industries. Although PP does not rely on Middle East imports, its upstream depends on Middle East LPG and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials led to reduced operation of olefin plants at home and abroad [1] - After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased. However, downstream customers were resistant to high prices, and spot transactions were weak. The inability to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz still implies a reduction in PP supply [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, increased positions, and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8888 yuan/ton, the highest was 9246 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 9120 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.39%. The open interest increased by 4112 lots to 343310 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in different regions showed mixed trends. The drawstring was quoted at 8450 - 8980 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply - On March 26, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 73%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29% [4] 3.3.2 Demand - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [4] 3.3.3 Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 805,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4] 3.3.4 Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $104 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $20 per ton to $1250 per ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The market for plastics (L) and polypropylene (PP) is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, oil prices, and supply - demand dynamics. Geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as conflicts and attacks on oil facilities, have a significant impact on the global supply of raw materials, leading to price fluctuations in the L and PP markets [1][8]. - Economic indicators, such as the EuroCoin index, domestic car inventory warning index, and various price and production indices, also play a role in determining the market trends of L and PP. For example, changes in the EuroCoin index can have a positive or negative impact on commodities, while changes in the domestic car inventory warning index can affect the demand for related products [2]. - The profitability of MTO - made PP has shown significant changes, with some periods seeing a rise in profit margins, which can influence the production and market supply of PP [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: - The price of LLDPE in the L market has fluctuated, with some days showing price increases and others showing decreases. The price changes range from 50 - 250 yuan/ton, 500 - 800 yuan/ton, etc., depending on different dates. Market trading atmosphere is often cautious, with downstream factories having different levels of purchasing enthusiasm [1][4]. - The L主力2605 contract has also shown different trends, with some days rising and others falling. For example, on 26 - 03 - 25, it closed at 8683 points, down 235 points or 2.64% [1]. - **PP Polypropylene**: - The domestic PP market price has also fluctuated, generally with narrow - range adjustments. The price changes are often around 100 - 150 yuan/ton, 300 - 600 yuan/ton, etc. The market sentiment is affected by factors such as production enterprise price adjustments and downstream demand [1][4]. - The PP主力2605 contract has similar trends to the L contract, with price fluctuations on different days. For example, on 26 - 03 - 25, it closed at 8900 points, down 214 points or 2.35% [1]. Important News - Geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as conflicts and attacks on oil facilities in the UAE, have led to disruptions in the global oil and petrochemical supply chains, affecting the prices of L and PP [1][8][17]. - Industry - related policies and announcements, such as the release of the "List of Products at Risk of Oversupply in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 Edition)" by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, have an impact on market expectations [59]. - The development of the logistics industry and the changes in the global economic situation also have an impact on the L and PP markets. For example, the decline in the ratio of China's total social logistics costs to GDP reflects the transformation of the logistics industry, which can affect the cost and demand of the L and PP industries [48]. Logical Analysis - Economic indicators, such as the EuroCoin index, domestic car inventory warning index, and various price and production indices, are used to analyze the market trends of L and PP. For example, a rise in the EuroCoin index is slightly positive for commodities, while a rise in the domestic car inventory warning index is slightly negative for commodities [2]. - The profitability of MTO - made PP, the inventory levels of L and PP, and the production capacity utilization rates are important factors in analyzing the market. For example, an increase in the profitability of MTO - made PP can lead to an increase in production and supply, while changes in inventory levels can affect market prices [4][5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: - For the L主力2605 contract, the strategies include holding long positions, setting stop - loss levels, and in some cases, taking a wait - and - see approach. For example, on 26 - 03 - 25, it is recommended to reduce long positions [1]. - For the PP主力2605 contract, similar strategies are adopted, such as holding long positions, setting stop - loss levels, and in some cases, taking a wait - and - see approach [1]. - **Arbitrage trading**: - The SPC L2605&PP2605 contract is used for arbitrage trading. Strategies include holding short positions, setting stop - loss levels, and in some cases, taking a wait - and - see approach [2][5]. - **Options trading**: - In most cases, the reports recommend a wait - and - see approach for options trading [2][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. Currently, the basis is weak (-1000), domestic refinery gas is sufficient in the short term, and there are intentions to deliver warehouse receipts from some warehouses. The 4 - 5 month spread on the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. Looking ahead, a shortage of LPG in China in the second half of April is inevitable. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage, and the civil LPG demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - From March 19 - 25, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed an upward trend. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 on March 19 to 7210 on March 25. Paper import profit increased from -3111 on March 19 to 1 on March 25, and the main basis changed from -392 to 120 [1]. - On March 25, the PG2605 contract closed at 6550 (-286) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 242 (+47), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0). The night - session closed at 6565 (-29), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 225 (-17) [1]. - Shandong civil LPG price was 6470 (-80), Shandong ether - post carbon four was 6470 (+0), Shandong propane was 6870 (-80), and Longkou Port propane was 7500 (+0) [1]. 3.2 Weekly Data Changes - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures price rose significantly. The basis was -1057 (-736), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 64 (-68) [1]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - post at 5950 (+520) [1]. - The FEI month spread was 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the domestic and international PG - FEI c1 dropped to 35 (-15.5) [1]. - The on - shore discount of South China CP propane was 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -76 (+52) [1]. - The spot profit of domestic PDH - made propylene weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH - made PP in East and South China decreased. The port inventory ratio was 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization was 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate was 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].