Core Insights - The PP (polypropylene) market is experiencing a bifurcation, with strong demand for packaging materials driven by e-commerce promotions, while traditional sectors like real estate remain weak [1][2][4] - The demand surge during the "Double 11" shopping festival has led to increased orders for BOPP films and thin-walled injection materials, particularly in East and South China [1][2] - Despite the short-term boost from e-commerce, the overall industry remains under pressure due to weak demand in traditional sectors, particularly in pipe materials and plastic weaving [2][5] Demand Dynamics - The demand for PP is characterized by short-term concentration and sector-specific growth, primarily benefiting packaging materials related to daily retail [2][3] - After the "Double 11" event, orders for packaging PP (BOPP/CPP) quickly declined, leading to increased inventory levels and reduced operating rates in film factories [2][4] - The only exception to the overall demand weakness is in the thin-walled injection sector, where strong demand from food delivery and instant retail keeps prices stable [2][3] Supply and Production - The production capacity for BOPP and CPP is expected to increase by 4% and 14.3% respectively, with significant growth in high-end specialty materials [2][3] - However, the overall supply remains pressured by new capacity releases, such as the 400,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical, which contributes to a loose supply environment [4][5] - The market is currently facing a supply surplus, which is expected to continue impacting prices negatively [5] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter outlook suggests a mix of local opportunities and overall pressures, with potential support from upcoming e-commerce events and high-end modified PP demand driven by the new energy vehicle market [4] - The key factors influencing future PP futures prices include the actual demand realization during peak shopping seasons, potential production cuts due to profit losses, and policy impacts on supply and consumption [4] - The market is likely to experience range-bound fluctuations in the fourth quarter, with insufficient momentum for a significant upward trend [4][5]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing, with the overall supply - demand pattern unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost and season, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to about 25.5% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, after the end of the US government shutdown, the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continued to strengthen, and the crude oil price rebounded after the decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus became more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently. The downstream is in the off - season, and the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, with no large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with a minimum price of 6,368 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 6,431 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 6,400 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.34%. The position volume decreased by 2,378 lots to 617,955 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6,200 - 6,560 yuan per ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.14个百分点至53.28%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率环比回落0.12个百分点至44.24%，塑编订单环比略有减少，略低于去年同期。11月19日，新 增广东石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至81%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例 上涨至25%左右。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，美国政府停摆 结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将2025年三季度全球石油从短 缺40万桶/日调整为过剩50万桶/日，原油供应过剩格局进一步成为共识，原油价格涨幅有限。供应 上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下游进入旺季尾 声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以 刺激成交。PP产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问 题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。此前成本上涨及下游旺季推动PP价格反弹，但供需格局整体未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to experience weak and volatile trends as the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and the downstream peak season [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard - grade拉丝 remained around 24% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and crude oil prices rebounded after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,488 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,392 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.13%. The open interest increased by 5,494 lots to 638,372 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 18th, new maintenance devices such as the single - line of Yuntianhua were added, and the PP enterprise开工率 dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending November 14th, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the downstream plastic weaving开工率 for the main拉丝 product decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $730 per ton week - on - week [4]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-18 PP供应小幅收窄，需求跟进仍偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6843元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6467元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6850 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6480元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为7元/吨（+10），LL华 东基差为7元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为13元/吨（+7）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.1%（+0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+1.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为175.9元/吨（-104.8），PP油制生产利润为-434.1元/吨（-104.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-213.3元/吨（-9.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-9.0元/吨（+0.3），PP进口利润为-208.2元/吨（+0.3），PP出口利润为-5.8美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.4%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62. ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Cost increases and the Double Eleven peak season have pushed up PP prices, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so PP is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawing grade dropped to around 23% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has a limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 by OPEC [1]. - The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, so the boost to the market is limited [1]. - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,468 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,518 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,474 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.40%. The open interest decreased by 6,371 lots to 622,052 lots [2]. - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions were stable. The drawing grade was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the LLDPE and PP markets, suggesting that both are expected to have a volatile trend today due to factors such as oversupply, macro - economic conditions, and oil price fluctuations [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, some restrictions were lifted, and OPEC + announced a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026, causing oil prices to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films remains strong, but stocking for other films is ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6850 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and a phased easing in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant measures were adjusted, and OPEC +'s decision affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is recovering. The current PP delivery spot price is 6470 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 62 million tons (+2), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, oil price fluctuations, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors are the same as those for LLDPE, while bearish factors also include weak demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in Q4 [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6850 (+10), the 01 contract price is 6818 (+30), the basis is 32 (-20), and the import price difference is - 243 (+31). The warehouse receipt is 12067 (0), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 57.9 million tons (+3.9), and social inventory is 50 million tons (-10) [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6470 (0), the 01 contract price is 6480 (+20), the basis is - 10 (-20), and the import price difference is - 213 (+19). The warehouse receipt is 14642 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 62 million tons (+2), and social inventory is 32.4 million tons (-0.9) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption have shown various trends. For example, in 2024, capacity was 3584.5, production was 2773.8, net imports were 1360.32, and the import dependence was 32.9%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also changed. In 2024, capacity was 4418.5, production was 3425, net imports were 360, and the import dependence was 9.5%. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - PP downstream demand is in the peak season, but the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. With the restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in enterprise operating rates, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 12, some maintenance devices such as a line of Guangxi Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings increased to about 26%. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side is in a narrow - range shock. The supply has increased, while the downstream demand has limited follow - up, and there is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6434 yuan/ton, the highest was 6474 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6460 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.11%. The position decreased by 4959 lots to 636592 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 12, some maintenance devices such as a line of Guangxi Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 84%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 oscillated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $710 per ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as limited downstream order follow - up, insufficient stock - up demand during Double Eleven, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On November 11, new maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 83%, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently it is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations, OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in price with increasing positions, closing at 6464 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The position increased by 2552 lots to 655,336 lots [2] - In the spot market, PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with drawstring priced at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 7, maintenance devices such as the new second line of CNOOC Daxie restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of November 7, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $710 per ton week - on - week [4]