【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6456元/吨，最高价6532元/吨，最终收盘于6484元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅0.31%。持仓量减少8586手至511792手。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月8日 【行情分析】 截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中 拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。1月8日，新增福建联合二线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下降至78.5%左右，处于偏低水平，标 品拉丝生产比例下降至22.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。 成本端，原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油 设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油， 原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置有 所增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-8 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。1月3日 美军抓捕马杜罗，美国宣布"临时管理"并 计划引入本国油企修复委内瑞拉石油基础设施，预计国内原油化工品影响有限。供需端，农膜需 求持续偏弱，包装膜企业按需采购为主。当前LL交割品现货价6460（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-182，升贴水比例-2.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存39. ...

021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 聚烯烃日报 行业 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中 拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。1月7日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在至79%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉丝生产 比例上涨至23.5%左右。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依 然疲软。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下 游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情 提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。12月中国制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数均升至扩张区间，财政部提前下达2026年以旧换新及"两重"额度，宏观氛 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-7 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。1月3日 美军抓捕马杜罗，美国宣布"临时管理"并 计划引入本国油企修复委内瑞拉石油基础设施，预计国内原油化工品影响有限。供需端，农膜需 求持续偏弱，包装膜企业按需采购为主。当前LL交割品现货价6420（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-159，升贴水比例-2.4%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存39. ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/2 9 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 2025/12/3 0 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 2025/12/3 1 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 - 320 - -2 - 2026/01/0 6 801 - - - - 2345 2450 - - - 10 - 日度变化 0 - - - - 30 2 - - - 12 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to operate in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, a decrease in downstream orders, and high inventory levels. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes online and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1][4]. - On the cost side, due to oversupply in the crude oil market and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there have been few changes in maintenance devices recently [1]. - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has fallen again, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market has limited the boost to the market [1]. - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, which boosted market sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and operated in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6326 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6375 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6348 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.67%. The open interest decreased by 33,492 lots to 507,887 lots [2]. - Spot: PP spot prices in various regions partially increased, with raffia priced at 5920 - 6330 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard raffia remained at around 27.5% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP raffia, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 630,000 tons, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6].

【聚烯烃： 产能压力不减，投产前底后高 】 2026年度报告 日期: 2025-12-29 （聚烯烃：产能压力不减，投产前底后高 】 2026年度报告 综 回顾2025年行情，是聚烯烃产能压力逐渐兑现的过程. PP、PB全年表需增速达到18.18%、10.47%，远高于前几年。1季度产量开始克现但需求尚可，聚烯烃价格 仍偏稳。2季度主要受到宏观事件的干扰。然而，进入到3、4季度随着供应压力进一步累积而需求放缓，行业顾势开始显现，开始加速下跌。除此之外，需求瑞前高 后低,成本缺少支撑,共同导致偏弱格局,但并不是强驱动逻辑。 展望2006年，投产格局延续，PP和PE新增产能增速预计分别为128和9%。行业进一步承压。但投产节奏与今年不同，呈现前底后高的格局，投产多集中在 3、4季度。站在当前时点向后看，1、2季度可以成为判断基准，如果届时荷量博不能消化。那么进入下半年格局只会进一步恶化，如果揭明能止在25年Q4以来的走 弱趋势，那么可能会呈现震荡偏弱的局面。国内投放之余，也需要关注到国外乙烯炭置的运行/淘汰情况，这关系到全球物流以及国内进出口。 策略建议方面: 单边:全年维持弱势判断,价格承压,且节奏上前高后低。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile range. The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with limited upside potential. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new PP capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [1][4] - Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, with significant pressure [1] - Due to oversupply in the crude oil market, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Russia reported 91 Ukrainian drones attacking Putin's residence. The rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - There is new capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and moved in a volatile range. The lowest price was 6,271 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,346 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,321 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.48%. The open interest increased by 23,919 lots to 541,379 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. Drawstring was reported at 5,920 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 30, new maintenance units such as the first line of Donghua Energy's second - phase project were added. The PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of drawstring remained at around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week - on - week, and orders decreased slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 PP：1 月多套 PDH 计划检修，盘面企稳震荡 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 商 品 研 究 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6266 | -0.19% | 405723 | -3751 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -146 | | -158 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -19 | | -22 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6050 | | 6020 | | | | 华 东 | 6120 | | 6120 | | | | 华 南 | 6210 | | 6220 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡， ...