Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

| | LPG早报 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 丙烷CFR华 丙烷CIF日 MB丙烷现 CP预测合 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 主力基差 | 华东液化 | | | | | | | | 纸面进口 | | | | | 气 | | 南 | 本 | 货 | 同价 | | | 利润 | | | 2025/08/1 4 | 4365 | 4401 | 4420 | 565 | 535 | 69 | 521 | 4920 | 7810 | -302 | 507 | | 2025/08/1 5 | 4400 | 4410 | 4420 | 563 | 527 | 66 | 519 | 4930 | 7830 | -253 | 539 | | 2025/08/1 8 | 4450 | 4410 | 4440 | 561 | 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish trend continues [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices trend downward. Buy put options [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost-side drags, upward momentum is insufficient. Take profit on long positions [1][7][8] - L: Market sentiment weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait for dips to go long [1][11][15] - PP: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see [1][18][22] - PVC: Market sentiment turns weak, inventory accumulates. Hold short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Supply-demand tight balance eases, oil prices oscillate weakly. Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply-demand tight balance, oil prices oscillate weakly. Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long at lows [1][35][37] - MEG: Supply-demand is slightly loose, inventory is low. Hold short positions cautiously and look for low-buying opportunities [2][39][41] - Methanol: Negative factors may be exhausted. Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low-buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but the fertilizer export window to India opens. Hold 01 long positions and sell put options [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Cost-side drags and demand declines. Lightly short [2][52][54] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait and see in the short term [2][56][57] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, WTI dropped 1.48%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.02% [3] - **Basic Logic**: After the US-Russia talks, geopolitical conflicts tend to ease. The support of the peak season for oil prices gradually decreases, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices gradually rises. Oil prices still have room to compress, and there is a probability of being pressed to around $60 in the medium and long term [4] - **Fundamentals**: From January to July this year, Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to the lowest level since September 2023. As of the week of August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break-even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of [470 - 490] for SC [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 19, the PG main contract closed at 4314 yuan/ton, up 0.14% month-on-month [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost-side oil price is weak, and the fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the supply and demand have improved. The cost side is the main drag, and the upward momentum is weak [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. The ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. The trend mainly follows the oil price. Take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [9] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.4% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 379 lots [11][12][13] - **Industry News**: In the short term, the cost support of PE weakens, the supply pressure eases, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is expected that the polyethylene price will run strongly, with an increase of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: Demand recovers slowly, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The parking ratio increases, the LL import profit margin decreases, and the production is expected to decline. The peak season for shed films is coming, and the demand support is strengthening. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Wait for dips to go long. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [1][15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for dips to go long [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 1180 lots [18][19][20] - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by bearish sentiment. However, the cost side still has support, and the macro - policy is favorable. It is expected that the market will oscillate bearishly around 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton in the short term [21] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream maintenance intensity declines, the export profit margin remains negative, and the demand starts slowly. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7100] for PP [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and go long on dips [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 5001 yuan/ton, down 1.0% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 134 lots [25][26][27] - **Industry News**: Some enterprises' devices are shut down, and India issued an anti - dumping tax on PVC imports. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market will continue to run weakly. It is expected that the spot price of calcium carbide - type five in East China will be in the range of 4700 - 4850 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment turns weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. Social inventories have accumulated for 8 consecutive weeks. Multiple sets of devices are planned to be overhauled this week, and the weekly output is expected to decline. In August, new production capacity will be released, and the internal and external demand is in the off - season. The export is disturbed by policies, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industrial chain still exists. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [29] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads. The demand side is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PX inventory is still high. The PXN is not low. The oil price oscillates weakly. Cautiously bearish [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6790] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, the supply - side device maintenance intensity increases, and the start - up load decreases. The demand side is stable, and the start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving stops falling and rebounds. The supply - demand tight balance in August is expected to ease. The TA processing fee is low, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at lows [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long on TA at lows. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4750] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices are slightly increasing their loads, and the expected arrival volume increases, with the total supply increasing. The start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is expected to rebound. The supply and demand in August are slightly loose, and the oil price trend is downward. However, the ethylene glycol inventory is low, supporting the price. In the short term, it oscillates weakly, but the downward space may be limited [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4380 - 4430] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [43][44] - **Basic Logic**: The previously overhauled domestic devices have recovered, and the overseas methanol device load is at a high level, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is accumulating. The negative factors may be exhausted [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low - buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of [2385 - 2415] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: The urea device maintenance is low this week, and the start - up load is expected to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is good. The cost side has support. In the short term, the domestic urea fundamentals are still loose, but the price fluctuates within a range under the export quota system and the "peak - shaving and summer - ensuring" policy. The market speculates on the expectation of fertilizer/urea exports to India [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [1790 - 1835] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 19, the BU main contract closed at 3453 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month [52][53] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase and trends weakly. The asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The asphalt profit is okay, and the cracking spread is at a high level. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the long - term asphalt price is under pressure due to the typhoon in the south [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, with a high valuation. As OPEC gradually increases production, the raw material side is relatively sufficient. The asphalt is bearish in the medium and long term. Lightly short. Pay attention to the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL01 closing price was 6404 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day. The warehouse receipts increased by 197 lots [56][57] - **Industry News**: The PDH device has restarted, and the regional circulation has increased, but the enterprise inventory is low. The downstream restocking is okay. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase after the restart of some PDH devices, but the demand is also expected to increase due to the recovery of some PP devices. The price may oscillate within a range [59] - **Basic Logic**: Both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream supply is abundant, and the PDH cost support weakens. The downstream is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm. The short - term market sentiment is weak. Wait and see [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price center to shift downward. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and MB propane spot showed an upward trend, while the prices of East China LPG and propane CFR South China fluctuated. The daily changes on August 19 were 40, -20, 40, 2, 0, 1, -2 respectively. The paper import profit increased by 26, and the main basis increased by 39. [1] Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4390. FEI and CP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly. The cost of production using CP was lower than that using FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -449 (+19). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - The spot prices moved downward due to increased supply and weak demand, but the PG futures rebounded because of the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warrants increased by 2709 to 12888 lots. [1] International Market - The international market fluctuated, with freight rates remaining high and volatile. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP widened significantly. The PG - CP spread reached 8.9 (+12), and the PG - FEI spread reached 20.7 (+12). The FEI - MOPJ changed slightly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading volume decreased, chemical demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased by 2.06%. Refinery product volumes decreased by 1.68% due to increased self - use in some refineries and the maintenance of Xintai's gas fractionation unit. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventories increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct), and combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices have declined, and the demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, while the industrial inventory is neutral. For PP, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have also fallen back, crude oil prices have dropped, and although the demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly, the industrial inventory is neutral [4][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, the overall demand for agricultural films was lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate was low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 87, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and lower - than - expected agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [6]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7030 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 14, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.2%, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PP is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [9]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the PE import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been growing steadily, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed accordingly. The PP import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased to 9.5% in 2024 [17].

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 7352 yuan/ton, closed at 7334 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.14%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7346 yuan/ton, closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7308 yuan/ton, closed at 7292 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.04%); PP2601 opened at 7073 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-0.49%); PP2605 opened at 7075 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.44%); PP2509 opened at 7051 yuan/ton, closed at 7026 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51) [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market Performance: Futures prices fluctuated downward, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Traders were eager to sell, but downstream factories' enthusiasm for replenishing stocks did not improve, mainly purchasing in small quantities at low prices [6] - Supply Side: Upstream device operating loads continued to increase. Although PP maintenance losses were still at a high level, with the restart of previously shut - down devices and few new maintenance devices, the impact of maintenance decreased and the expectation of new capacity expansion increased. PE had no new plans, and after the end of the centralized maintenance period, the operating load and output continued to increase. Next week, due to more shut - down and planned shut - down devices, the supply pressure was relatively neutral [6] - Downstream Consumption: The operating loads of agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP increased month - on - month. Some enterprises' orders improved, but the expectation for the peak season was weaker year - on - year [6] - Market Outlook: During the macro - window period, the market returned to fundamentals. A unilateral oscillation mindset was adopted. There was an expectation of improvement in supply - demand margins during the off - peak to peak season transition. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand in the second half of the month and the actual support of inventory reduction [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a 7.84% increase (60,000 tons) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 830,000 tons [7] - PE Market Price: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7430 yuan/ton, in East China was 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There were both device startups and shutdowns, and the supply side was mixed. Production enterprises' quotes were mostly slightly increased, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The market was mainly a game between supply and demand [7] - PP Market Price: The PP market declined slightly. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, in East China was 6960 - 7080 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6880 - 7120 yuan/ton [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. The PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread has fluctuated. The international market is volatile, and the freight rates are high. The PDH - PP production profit has weakened, and the production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE have declined. The port inventory has decreased, the chemical demand has slightly increased, and the refinery output has decreased. The combustion demand is still weak but approaching the end [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On August 15, 2025, the propane CFR South China was 4400, the South China LPG was 4410, the East China LPG was 4410, the Shandong LPG was 4420, etc. The daily changes showed that the propane CFR South China increased by 35, the South China LPG increased by 9, etc. The cheapest deliverable was the East China civil LPG at 4410. The FEI and CP first rose and then fell. The PP fluctuated weakly, and the production profit of PP from FEI and CP slightly weakened. The PG futures fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1] Weekly View - The spot price declined due to increased supply and weak demand, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures rebounded because of the improved international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9). The warehouse receipt registration volume was 12888 lots (+2709). The international market was volatile, and the freight rates were high. The FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly. The port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery output decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH - PP spot profit weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylation oil and MTBE declined. The PDH plant operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The basis is strong, the disk valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall situation is expected to be mainly volatile [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - The center of the spot price has moved down, and the cheapest deliverable is the South China civil gas at 4365 on Thursday. The PG disk strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -450 (+15). The US - Far East arbitrage window is closed [1] - The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), the monthly reverse spread continued to strengthen, the 9 - 10 spread was -478 (-39), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 10179 lots (+420) [1] International Market - The international market fundamentals are loose. FEI and CP are oscillating, and MB is weakening. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East has decreased, while that in North America has slightly increased [1] - The internal - external price difference has dropped significantly. PG - CP is 9.3 (-21); PG - FEI is -2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window is open [1] - The freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East is 85 (+11). The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal has increased, but it is expected to decline next [1] Industrial Profit - The FEI - MOPJ has significantly narrowed to -38 (+15), and the naphtha crack spread has strengthened. The PDH spot profit has weakened, while the paper profit has continued to improve [1] - The production gross profit of alkylated oil has decreased. The MTBE gas fractionation etherification gross profit has slightly increased, and the isomerization etherification gross profit has slightly decreased [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading port volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, the factory inventory has decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume has increased by 0.57% [1] - The PDH operating rate is 73.84% (+1.21 pct). Tianjin Bohua has resumed operation, Jiangsu Ruiheng has restarted, but Binhua has stopped due to a fault for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - LPG: Hold long positions [1] - L: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PP: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and the support from the peak season is weakening. OPEC+ production increase exerts downward pressure. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and improved fundamentals lead to a short - term rebound. Hold long positions [1]. - **L**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, consider buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. Although the downstream demand recovers slowly, the technical bottom provides support. Consider buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still relatively high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [1]. - **PTA**: The spot processing fee is weakening, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **MEG**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2]. - **Urea**: The production is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Propylene**: The PDH cost support is weakening, but the supply pressure may ease marginally. The downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 0.61%, Brent rose 1.84%, and SC fell 0.88% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is declining, and the OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure. The oil price still has room to decline, and it may fall to around $60 in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow, but the inventory in the US increased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 14, the PG main contract closed at 3,832 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,420 ( - 10), 4,401 ( + 0), and 4,365 ( + 5) yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the fundamentals are good. The basis is high, and the supply and inventory are both decreasing. The short - term rebound is expected [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Focus on the range of [3,850 - 3,950] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,285 yuan/ton, and the North China Ningmei price was 7,290 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [15]. - **Industry News**: The polyethylene market was strong this week. Although the supply was high, the pressure is expected to ease with more maintenance. The demand is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, the fundamentals are expected to improve. Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,085 yuan/ton, and the East China drawn wire spot price was 7,056 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry News**: The polypropylene spot price was slightly adjusted this week. The upstream raw materials are expected to be favorable, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited driving force [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. The upstream maintenance is high, and the downstream demand recovers slowly. Consider buying on dips [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,050 - 7,200] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 closed at 4,970 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 3,239 lots [29]. - **Industry News**: There was no new enterprise maintenance this week. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to be stable [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of [4,900 - 5,100] for V [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 ( - 30) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side changes are limited, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low with increased maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and put options. Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [6,600 - 6,720] for PX [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,670 ( - 15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 closed at 4,684 ( - 4) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply - side maintenance is increasing. The demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakening. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually, buy put options, and pay close attention to the US - Russia Alaska talks. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for TA. Focus on the range of [4,660 - 4,730] for TA [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,456 ( - 19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 closed at 4,384 ( - 12) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. The 8 - month supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively low. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [4,350 - 4,390] for EG [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China methanol spot price was 2,393 ( - 3) yuan/ton, and the methanol main 09 contract closed at 2,383 ( - 5) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and the overseas methanol devices are operating at a high load. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions gradually. The downside space for 01 may be limited. Look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads in batches. Focus on the range of [2,420 - 2,460] for MA [48]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,760 ( - 20) yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,728 ( - 9) yuan/ton [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The urea device operating load is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost support exists. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions. Pay attention to the small peak of autumn fertilizer use for urea and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Focus on the range of [1,725 - 1,755] for UR [52]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for asphalt. - **Basic Logic**: The short - term oil price has stabilized but still has room to decline. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for propylene. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong spot price decreased slightly, and the East China spot price increased. The 8 - month propane CP price decreased rapidly, weakening the PDH cost support. The supply pressure may ease marginally, and the downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The absolute price is low. Consider buying on dips.