• LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。OPEC + 于 10 月 5 日决议 11 月增产 13.7 万桶 / 日，增幅低于 前期加速增产传言，中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。供需端，装置 检修减少，负荷窄幅提升，产量有所增加，"金九银十" 旺季临近尾声，下游逐步转淡，农膜 开工略有提升，整体需求支撑偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7080（-80），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差3，升贴水比例0.0%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.3万吨（ ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+继续扩产，淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动。库存方面，进入消费淡季， | | 原油 | | 美国库存上升，但库存绝对值不高，下方存一定支撑；供需方面，OPEC+10 | | | 谨慎看空 月 | 5 日会议计划于 11 月继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下 | | ★ | | 行压力较大，重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略： | | | | 空单继续持有同时购买看涨期权。 | | | | 油价中枢下移，沙特 CP 价格下调，成本端偏空。成本端原油供给过剩压 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 力仍在，沙特下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基 | | ★ | | 差回归至正常；供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升；下游化工需求有所回升。 | | | | 策略：供需矛盾不大，走势跟随油价，空单继续持有。 | | L | | 短期跟随成本波动为主，节中原油稳中小跌，成本支撑转弱。节前两油聚 | | | 空头盘整 | 烯烃库存降至 59 ...

Report Title - The Q4 2025 Quarterly Report on Polyolefins by Guantong Futures: New Capacity Commissioning Puts Pressure, Polyolefins to Oscillate Weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are gradually exiting the maintenance season, with the operating rate expected to rise in October. Import profit is average, and import volume is expected to remain low. In Q4, new PE and PP capacities of 2.7 million tons/year and 950,000 tons/year will be commissioned respectively. Multiple units are scheduled to start operation by the end of the year, having little impact on the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new capacities. The demand for polyolefins in Q4 will improve quarter-on-quarter but perform averagely compared to the same period in previous years. New orders are mediocre. Amid the global trade war, enterprises' early rush for exports and the pre - consumption of national subsidies may overdraw the Q4 demand. Although downstream enterprises have stocked up, they remain cautious. Crude oil prices will still face pressure in Q4, and the cost support for polyolefin prices is expected to be limited. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the polyolefin industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect subsequent market conditions and are worthy of close attention. It is expected that polyolefins will oscillate weakly in Q4 under the scenario of both supply and demand increasing [5][110]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Futures Price Trends - The report presents the daily K - lines of the plastic weighted contract and the PP weighted contract [8][10] Plastic Spot Prices - It shows the spot prices of plastics in North China and the spot price (CFR, mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene in the Far East [14][16] Plastic Basis Trends - Since 2025, the plastic basis has been continuously weakening from a historical high, reaching a low of - 136 yuan/ton in late July. Recently, with stable spot prices and continuous decline in futures prices, the plastic basis has rebounded to around 200 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level. The PP basis has declined slightly recently but remains at a neutral position [23][29] Plastic Production - In August 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 9.63% month - on - month to 457,900 tons, an increase of 25.42% year - on - year. The cumulative PE maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 0.86% year - on - year to 3.2809 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PE output increased by 2.52% month - on - month to 2.7702 million tons, an increase of 15.38% year - on - year. The cumulative PE output from January to August 2025 increased by 17.24% year - on - year to 21.6233 million tons, also at the highest level in the same period in history [34] Plastic Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 2.37 percentage points month - on - month to 81.3%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level among the same period in previous years. Recently, the operating rate has risen to around 85% and is currently at a neutral level. With the planned restart of some maintenance units at the end of September, the plastic operating rate is expected to rise slightly [39] Plastic Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of North Huajin HDPE and Shenyang Chemical's full - density units, new units in 2025 like those of Lianyungang Petrochemical HDPE and Zhonghan Petrochemical LLDPE are still under maintenance [41] Plastic Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - According to Longzhong Information, there are not many PE units planned for maintenance in Q4 2025, involving a total capacity of 3.18 million tons. Some units will be under maintenance for more than 30 days [44] Plastic New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, multiple new capacities were commissioned, with a total of 3.43 million tons/year. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 2.7 million tons. Some new capacities are expected to be commissioned in October, while others at the end of the year, having little impact on the 2025 output. There is also a possibility of delay in the commissioning of new capacities in Q4 [48] PP Production - In August 2025, the PP maintenance volume decreased by 8.76% month - on - month to 657,900 tons, an increase of 8.89% year - on - year. The cumulative PP maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 5.13% year - on - year to 5.0087 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PP output increased by 2.32% month - on - month to 3.5045 million tons, an increase of 18.00% year - on - year. The cumulative PP output from January to August 2025 increased by 16.92% year - on - year to 26.3476 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history [52] PP Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 1.65 percentage points month - on - month to 78.80%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level. Recently, the operating rate has dropped to around 79% due to new maintenance units, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has risen to around 30%. It is expected that the operating rate will recover in early October [57] PP Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of Dalian Petrochemical and Wuhan Petrochemical, new units in 2025 like those of Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical are still under maintenance [60] PP Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - In Q4, multiple PP units are planned for maintenance, and the maintenance is expected to be concentrated from October to November [63] PP New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, 4.155 million tons of new PP capacities were commissioned. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 950,000 tons, with some units planned to be commissioned in December [66] Plastic Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PE imports were 950,200 tons, a decrease of 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.9816 million tons, a decrease of 0.84% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PE exports were 116,000 tons, an increase of 61.83% year - on - year and 14.12% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE exports from January to August 2025 were 729,700 tons, an increase of 25.91% year - on - year. In August 2025, the net PE imports were 834,200 tons, a decrease of 27.36% year - on - year. The cumulative net PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 2.66% year - on - year. The LLDPE import profit is currently negative, and with the release of domestic capacities, the net PE imports are expected to remain low [72] PP Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PP imports were 247,000 tons, a decrease of 21.39% year - on - year and 12.54% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cumulative PP imports from January to August 2025 were 2.1676 million tons, a decrease of 9.77% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PP exports were 275,900 tons, an increase of 29.83% year - on - year and 4.76% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PP exports from January to August 2025 were 2.1035 million tons, an increase of 29.03% year - on - year. The PP drawstring import window is closed, and the import volume is expected to be low [78] Polyolefin Downstream - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 52.1815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, but the cumulative year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly. In August, the year - on - year growth rate was - 4.1%. The cumulative export value of plastic products from January to August 2025 was 500.396 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, with a slightly rising growth rate but still negative. In August, the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 0.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the domestic total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, slower than the 3.7% from January to July. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods has been slowing down since May, indicating increasing pressure on domestic demand. As of the week of September 26, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week to 44.13%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week to 51.85%, both at relatively low levels in the same period in previous years [83][89][94] Polyolefin Inventories - After the Spring Festival in 2025, petrochemical inventories were at an average level compared to the same period in recent years. As of September 26, petrochemical inventories decreased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 585,000 tons, 105,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [102] Polyolefin Profits - In September, the coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased slightly due to a slight decline in PE prices. In September, the profits of all PP production processes declined to varying degrees. The coal - based PP production process remained profitable, while the other processes were still in the red, with the MTO process having a relatively large loss [108]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 主要逻辑：成本需求，国内宏观政策推动 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 • PP概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导人通话同意平等磋 商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑编等需求均出现增长，长假 临近，建议谨慎操作为主。当前PP交割品现货价6780（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7130（+10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-39，升贴水比例-0.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/09/23 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/09/1 6 801 2290 2288 2580 2555 2570 2735 266 326 0 -105 -1255 2025/09/1 7 801 2282 2283 2590 2555 2570 2715 266 326 -9 -100 -1255 2025/09/1 8 801 2267 2270 2585 2545 2570 2690 262 326 -10 -110 -1255 2025/09/1 9 801 2260 2268 2580 2545 2570 2685 262 326 6 -105 -1255 2025/09/2 2 801 2257 2258 2563 2545 2570 2685 262 326 6 -110 -1255 日度变化 0 -3 -10 -17 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性备货需求+联泓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - PE data shows various trends over time, including production, price, and inventory changes. For example, PE production increased from 610,000 tons last week to 630,000 tons this week, a rise of 2.97%. HDPE production increased from 260,000 tons to 270,000 tons, a 2.62% increase. PE开工率 increased from 78.04% to 80.36%, a 2.97% increase [5]. - Different types of PE (LLDPE, LDPE, HDPE) have different price and production change rates. LLDPE had a 4.65% increase in production, LDPE had a 16.97% increase, and HDPE had a 25.08% increase [2]. PP Fundamental Changes - PP data also shows trends in price, production, and inventory. PP production increased by 12.59% this week compared to last week. PP开工率 increased from 33.2% to 34.0%, a 2.44% increase [5]. - PP has different production methods (MTO, PDH), and their profit margins and price differentials are presented. For example, MTO -875, PDH -489 [3].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/22 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/09/1 5 801 2293 2290 2580 2520 2565 2713 266 326 12 -100 -1322 2025/09/1 6 801 2290 2288 2580 2555 2570 2735 266 326 0 -105 -1255 2025/09/1 7 801 2282 2283 2590 2555 2570 2715 266 326 -9 -100 -1255 2025/09/1 8 801 2267 2270 2585 2545 2570 2690 262 326 -10 -110 -1255 2025/09/1 9 801 2260 2268 2580 2545 2570 2690 262 326 6 -105 -1255 日度变化 0 -7 -2 -5 0 0 0 0 0 16 5 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. There is seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from the new Lianhong device in the inland, but the port will cause continuous reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the semi - coke cost is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货,江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面,CFR中国,CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差,盘面MTO利润 are 0, - 8, - 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850 on September 12 - 17. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 had certain fluctuations. The import profit was - 76 on September 15 - 17. The主力期货 price and基差 also changed. The two - oil inventory was 66 throughout, and the仓单 increased from 11993 on September 11 to 12736 on September 15 - 17. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚,PP美金,PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存,仓单 had different changes. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 0, 10, - 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价 (CFR中国),出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润,基差 (高端交割品) had certain changes. The daily change of西北电石 on September 17 compared to the previous day was 50, and other items had no change [3].