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申银万国期货早间策略-20250515
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that for stock index futures, the overall attitude is to be mainly bullish. For stock index options, the wide - straddle buying option strategy can be used to capture the trend - following market after the direction is chosen. The short - term situation is favorable for the stock market due to the release of favorable policies at the May 7th press conference and the May 12th phased results of China - US tariff negotiations. Currently, the valuation levels of China's major indices are still relatively low, and it is still cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market for allocation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - In the IF series, the previous day's closing prices of IF for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 3943.00, 3907.40, 3841.40, and 3803.40 respectively, with increases of 50.80, 56.00, 58.80, and 58.80. The trading volumes were 33690.00, 81957.00, 18781.00, and 4996.00, and the changes in open interest were - 2859.00, 20634.00, 5162.00, and 2132.00 [1]. - In the IH series, the previous day's closing prices of IH for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2756.00, 2737.60, 2707.00, and 2704.00 respectively, with increases of 47.40, 49.60, 53.00, and 53.40. The trading volumes were 15043.00, 48329.00, 10349.00, and 2516.00, and the changes in open interest were 1153.00, 13041.00, 3349.00, and 1237.00 [1]. - In the IC series, the previous day's closing prices of IC for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 5800.00, 5697.80, 5533.00, and 5420.40 respectively, with increases of 32.80, 43.40, 42.60, and 40.80. The trading volumes were 34192.00, 72621.00, 16925.00, and 6675.00, and the changes in open interest were - 4771.00, 14940.00, 3068.00, and 2598.00 [1]. - In the IM series, the previous day's closing prices of IM for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 6156.60, 6043.00, 5847.00, and 5702.00 respectively, with increases of 30.20, 46.00, 43.00, and 41.40. The trading volumes were 49231.00, 189515.00, 39828.00, and 12916.00, and the changes in open interest were - 7334.00, 26417.00, 6509.00, and 2476.00 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - The previous day's value of the CSI 300 index was 3943.21, with a trading volume of 172.03 billion lots and a total trading amount of 3194.65 billion yuan, and the increase was 1.21%. The previous day's value of the SSE 50 index was 2753.79, with a trading volume of 46.49 billion lots and a total trading amount of 947.24 billion yuan, and the increase was 1.69%. The previous day's value of the CSI 500 index was 5799.12, with a trading volume of 156.28 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1881.45 billion yuan, and the increase was 0.30%. The previous day's value of the CSI 1000 index was 6160.37, with a trading volume of 211.56 billion lots and a total trading amount of 2525.14 billion yuan, and the increase was 0.15% [1]. - Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications services, and public utilities sectors had different increases and decreases, with the major consumption and real - estate finance sectors having relatively high increases of 2.12% and 2.21% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - For the CSI 300, the previous day's bases of IF for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were - 0.21, - 35.81, - 101.81, and - 139.81 respectively. For the SSE 50, the previous day's bases of IH for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2.22, - 16.19, - 46.79, and - 49.79 respectively. For the CSI 500, the previous day's bases of IC for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 0.88, - 101.32, - 266.12, and - 378.72 respectively. For the CSI 1000, the previous day's bases of IM for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were - 3.77, - 117.37, - 313.37, and - 458.37 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic Main Indices and Overseas Indices - Among domestic main indices, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous day values of 3403.95, 10354.22, 6407.77, and 2083.14 respectively, with increases of 0.86%, 0.64%, 0.58%, and 1.01% respectively. Among overseas indices, the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index had previous day values of 23640.65, 38128.13, 5892.58, and 23527.01 respectively, with increases of 2.30%, - 0.14%, 0.10%, and - 0.47% respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs remain in effect. The US revoked 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and adjusted to implement a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and the remaining 10% retained. The US also lowered the ad - valorem tax rate on small Chinese parcels' international mail from 120% to 54% and revoked the measure to increase the specific tax from $100 per piece to $200 [2]. - As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month. From January to April, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than the previous month, remaining at a historically low level [2]. - On May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points (excluding those already implementing a 5% deposit reserve ratio) and lowered the deposit reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies by 5 percentage points, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - More than 20 institutions are ready to apply for the issuance of floating - rate new products, and products with "low fees + absolute returns + performance rewards" and "long - term stock investment + regular dividends" are the most concerned [2]. - As of the end of April, the total scale of 14 bank wealth - management companies reached 23.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.89 trillion yuan from the end of March and 1.16 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year [2]. - The construction of the railway from Ganqimaodu in China to Gashuun Sukhait in Mongolia officially started. China Telecom Quantum Group launched the world's first distributed cryptographic system integrating QKD and PQC, indicating a systematic technological breakthrough in China's new - generation quantum - secure infrastructure [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indices showed mixed trends. The previous trading day, the stock index rose, with the non - banking financial sector rising significantly and the national defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The whole - market trading volume was 1.35 trillion yuan. Among them, IH2505 rose 1.75%, IF2505 rose 1.31%, IC2505 rose 0.57%, and IM2505 rose 0.49%. On May 13, the margin trading balance increased by 1.344 billion yuan to 1798.404 billion yuan [2].