日度报告——综合晨报 A 股成交额破 3 万亿为历史次高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-26 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美联储官员 Logan：货币市场可能在季度末面临压力，但 昨天市场较为平淡，在周五大幅上涨后出现回调，其中受降息 预期推动的小盘股调整幅度更大，大盘成长跑赢。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股成交额破 3 万亿为历史次高 综 A 股继续演绎单边上涨行情，白酒板块补涨表明行情已充分被市 场认可。上海市发布的房地产新政力度较大，表明政策依旧重 视地产下行的问题，对于房地产市场释放明显托举信号。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2884 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 宽货币预期上升的背景下，债市的确可以对股市上涨脱敏，但 近期仍然建议保留一丝谨慎，不推荐追高。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 上海：调减住房限购政策 钢价震荡运行，市场整体风险偏好的提升以及煤焦价格的强势 对钢价形成明显带动，但近期现实压力仍有所增加，累库压力 犹存，预计钢价短期延续震荡格局。 有色金属（锌） SMM 七地锌锭库存总量增加 外宏观均偏多运行，对锌价形成支撑，海外库存持续去化带来 高风险和高弹 ...

策略周报——2025.08.26 | | | 研究所 0371-58620086 | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 逻辑 | 策略建议 | | 期权 | 本周 A 股延续上涨趋势，上证综指创一举突破 3800 点，创十 | 趋势投资者关注品种 | | | 年新高，市场成交额连续 8 个交易日超过 2 万亿。沪深 300 | 间的强弱套利机会。 | | | 指数均线多头排列，日三彩 K 线指标维持红色；周线三连阳 | 波动率投资者标的指 | | | ，周三彩 K 线指标维持红色。IF 期货当月合约转为升水标的 | 数上涨时做多波动率 | | | ，次月合约贴水当月合约基差缩小。IO 期权成交量放大，持 | ，下跌时做空波动率 | | | 仓量回升，期权成交量 PCR 下降，期权持仓量 PCR 上升，隐 | 。 | | | 含波动率上升，看涨、看跌期权最大持仓量行权价区间扩大 | | | | 。中证 1000 指数日线站上 7300 点，日三彩 K 线指标维持红 | | | | 色；周线三连阳，周三彩 K 线指标维持红色。IM 期货当月合 | | | | 约贴水标的基差缩小，次月合约贴水当 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年8月25日 | 全历史分位数 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | 94.00% | 16.00 | 96,70% | F期现价差 | 21.87 | H期期价差 | 13,39 | 10,16 | 95.0096 | 08 30% | 前现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 76.60% | 64.70% | -12.45 | 35.32 | IM湖砌价差 | -14.34 | -21.68 | 95.00% | 65.60% | 次月-当月 | 2.20 | 40.90% | 44.20% | -6.20 | | | 泰月-景月 | -19.20 | ...

财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2025-8-25 研究员 姓名：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 Z0012495 持续上攻，屡创新高 行情回顾: 上周四个股指期货品种继续大幅上行，其中沪深 300 与中证 500涨幅相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差部分仍为期货贴水模式， 贴水深度有所改善。期指主力合约期货-现货基差，IH 收于 13.39， IF 收于 16，IC 收于-12.45，IM 收于-14.34。 投资咨询号： 上周 A 股延续了此前的普涨态势。在日均成交额逼近 2.6 万亿 关口的环境下，沪指突破 2021 年牛市高点并站上 3800 点，向上进 攻态势明显。截至 8 月 22 日，板块已经出现了轮动，但是还是在 近期强势的板块，涨幅较大的板块已经滞涨，低位切换的并不明显。 整体看，强势运行是市场给出的态度，但放大周期看风险还是存在 的。 综合分析： 从各类资金情况来看，此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推 动者并非散户；事实上本轮行情从起步到加速，核心线索都是围绕 产业趋势和业绩。随着之前发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域，市 场会有个新旧资金接力的过程；未来行情的延续需要的是 ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-08-25 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 8 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。 8 月 27 日 09:30，中国国家统计局将公布 7 月及 1-7 月规模以上工业企业利润。 8 月 28 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 2025 年第二季度 GDP 修正值。 8 月 29 日 20:30，美国商务部将公布 7 月 PCE 物价指数。 8 月 31 日 09:30，国家统计局与中国物流与采购联合会将公布中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、8 月官方非制 ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 股指期货将震荡偏强 焦煤、燃料油、白银、铁矿石、玻璃 期货将震荡偏强 黄金、螺纹钢、纯碱期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡偏强：IF2509 阻力位 4500 和 4550 点，支撑位 4394 和 4360 点；IH2509 阻力位 3000 和 3030 点，支撑位 2942 和 2930 点；IC2509 阻力位 6950 和 7050 点，支撑位 6810 和 6750 点；IM2509 阻力位 755 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 25 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五芯片板块暴涨，带动科创 50 指数大涨 8.5%，两市主要指数震荡上涨。两市成 交额 2.54 万亿元，稍有放大。上证 50 指数收 2928 点，涨 66 点，涨幅 2.32%；沪 | | | | | 深 300 指数收 4378 点，涨 89 点，涨幅 2.10%；中证 500 指数收 6822 点，涨 118 | | | | | 点，涨幅 1.77%；中证 1000 指数收 7362 点，涨 109 点，涨幅 1.51%。行业与主题 | | | | | ETF 中涨幅居前的是科创 50ETF 富国、科创芯片设计 ETF、科创芯片 ETF、科创信息 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...