配置建议：考虑到经济逐步改善，流动性宽松，中美会谈落地后市场风险偏好有望进一步回升，11月继 续积极推荐成长等相关方向，包括： 中信建投主要观点如下： 宏观综述：经济修复动能分化，四季度增量政策可能较弱。三季度GDP放缓，经济延续放缓趋势。9月 制造业PMI虽仍处收缩区间，，非制造业PMI增速整体放缓，当前经济修复过程中面临的结构性压力仍 存。PPI同比明显回升，有低位企稳态势，反内卷和低基数效应的效果逐渐显现，但需求偏弱的格局对 CPI和PPI后续走势仍然严重拖累，年内PPI难以转正。M2同比增速创年内增速新高，同时M2-M1剪刀差 收窄，反映资金活力略有激活。但社会消费品零售总额增速继续回落，预计需求偏弱是接下来四季度的 重要主线。 政策层面，国内方面，"反内卷"略有降温，四中全会对"十五五"规划定调，目前市场反应不大，后续具 体政策存在超预期可能;流动性方面，央行呵护态度明确，在央行重启14天期逆回购、MLF增量续作、 重启买债等操作下，资金面整体有所改善。 配置上：如上所述，伴随着三季报披露完毕，美联储如期降息，11月月初中美谈判也有望落地，整体宏 观环境、流动性环境以及市场风险偏好有望进一步回暖，预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional economic cycle is facing unprecedented challenges due to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), which is rapidly expanding its application and complexity, leading to a shift from a "producer society" to a "consumer society" [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Paradigm Shift - The classic economic model of "labor creates value → value exchanges for currency → currency drives consumption → consumption stimulates production" is breaking down as AI takes over programmed production [2][3] - The transition from "labor value theory" to "existential value theory" signifies a fundamental change in how human value is perceived, with individuals increasingly seen as consumers rather than producers [2][3] Group 2: Value Redefinition - In the AI era, value should encompass more dimensions beyond labor, including human creativity, emotional experiences, social interactions, and ethical oversight of AI systems [4] - There is a need to explore new distribution mechanisms to ensure that those displaced by AI can secure basic living standards and development opportunities, promoting social equity and sustainable development [4] Group 3: Economic Sustainability Challenges - The challenge arises when AI replaces human labor, leading to questions about how individuals can derive value and income, and how consumption can be sustained in an AI-driven economy [3] - The intersection of technological singularity and economic cycle logic raises critical questions about the sustainability and effectiveness of the economic system [3]