金德伯格陷阱
Search documents
章俊把脉2026:中国资产配置迎加减乘除新逻辑
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-26 13:33
Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that China is at a pivotal moment characterized by "two changes and one leap," highlighting the global transformation and domestic economic transition towards new productive forces, particularly driven by artificial intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Context - The "3D challenges" of aging population, debt crisis, and de-globalization are reshaping the global economic landscape, with significant implications for government and market relationships [2]. - The global economy is expected to experience a "divergence and convergence" trend, with a narrowing growth gap between developed and emerging markets, particularly as the U.S. and China show signs of economic structural convergence [4][5]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Outlook - For 2026, China's economic growth is projected at around 5%, driven by increased domestic demand and a series of supply-side reforms aimed at addressing imbalances in the economy [6]. - The "new stage supply-side structural reform" will focus on reducing excess capacity, increasing leverage through fiscal measures, and accelerating the development of artificial intelligence and the digital economy [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the capital market is entering a historic revaluation opportunity, moving away from traditional cyclical thinking towards a new financial cycle focused on new productive forces [8]. - The shift in asset allocation from real estate to financial assets is expected to provide liquidity to the A-share market, with a notable increase in residents' willingness to invest in stocks and financial products [8].