Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract first rose and then declined. In August, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, spot trading was average, and inventories continued to rise. Overall, the steel market was intertwined with multiple and short factors, and the increase in short positions of mainstream positions was greater, putting pressure on futures prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA crossed at a low level, and the red bar shrank. The operation strategy is to be oscillating and bearish, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,106 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 1,754,813 lots, up 79,569 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net positions: -204,228 lots, down 8,017 lots [2] - RB10 - 1 contract spread: -72 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] - RB SHFE warehouse receipt: 222,253 tons, up 7,032 tons [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 193 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,250 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,333 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis: 144 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 777 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 13,763.02 million tons, down 82.18 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.71 million tons, up 0.33 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 610.12 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 128.36 million tons, up 12.27 million tons [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 220.56 million tons, up 5.91 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 169.62 million tons, down 4.91 million tons [2] - 35-city rebar social inventory: 453.77 million tons, up 21.26 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 70.83%, unchanged [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons [2] - Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 939 million tons, up 18 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 93.34, down 0.25 [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment: 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment: -12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points [2] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters [2] - Commercial housing unsold area: 40,536 million square meters, up 285 million square meters [2] - From August 27 to September 2, the capacity utilization rate of 506 domestic concrete mixing stations was 6.64%, basically unchanged week-on-week and down 0.73 percentage points year-on-year. The shipment volume was 1.329 million cubic meters, down 0.1% week-on-week and 10% year-on-year [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 2, the ISM data showed that the US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to output decline, indicating that the manufacturing industry was still in trouble [2] 3.7 Key Focus - Thursday's rebar weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2]