Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, steel and ore prices fluctuated weakly. Electric arc furnace steel continued to incur overall losses, blast furnace profits shrank, and the blast furnace profitability rate continued to decline. Steel mills had low production enthusiasm, with some mills undergoing maintenance and halting production, and environmental protection restrictions were imposed in areas such as Shanxi and Tangshan, Hebei. The daily hot metal output was 234,220 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,140 tons, basically the same as the same period last year, and it is likely to further decline to below 230,000 tons in the later stage. The demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the pressure for recovery has increased. The price of upstream coking coal is firm, and there has been a fourth round of price increases for coke, providing strong cost support. For iron ore, the continuous decline in hot metal output is negative for iron ore. The weakening of cost prices benefits steel mills, and a weak balance of supply and demand is maintained in the off - season. Overall, the supply and demand of steel and ore are both weak, and it is expected to continue to maintain the oscillation range. The resistance level of the main rebar contract is 3,230, and the support level is 3,000. The resistance level of hot - rolled coils is 3,450, and the support level is 3,200. The resistance level of the main iron ore 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [4]. - The steel price generally has a cycle of about 7 years: it declined from 2008 - 2015, rose from 2016 - 2021, and declined from 2021 - 2025. Currently, it is still in the decline cycle [7]. - This week, steel and ore prices fluctuated lower, and the rebar price at 3,000 and the iron ore price at 750 showed strong resilience [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1.50357 billion tons, a weekly decrease of 10,190 tons, a decline of 0.67% [15]. - The daily hot metal output was 234,220 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,140 tons, in line with expectations, and it is likely to further decline to 220,000 - 230,000 tons in the later stage. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19%. From October 27 to November 2, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.3141 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3.2184 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 490 million tons. From October 27 to November 2, the total global iron ore shipment volume monitored by Mysteel was 3.2138 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 174.5 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.7592 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 166.7 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.8951 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89.2 million tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.6058 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.6 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.5 million tons [22]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased week - on - week: the factory inventory decreased week - on - week, and the decline was mainly contributed by rebar. The social inventory also decreased week - on - week, and the decline was also mainly contributed by rebar [17]. Consumption - This week, the weekly consumption volume of the five major varieties was 866,930 tons, a decrease of 5.4%; among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 7.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. In the later stage, the supply side of steel is expected to shrink, the demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the pressure for recovery has increased [17]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the rebar price at 3,000 still has strong resilience. When it approaches 3,000, it is recommended to try to go long. If it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to stop the loss and exit. For iron ore, short - term operations are recommended, and stop - loss should be set [5]. Important Information - From January to September, among the newly - issued local special bonds nationwide, about 640 billion yuan of special bonds related to real estate such as affordable housing projects, affordable rental housing, and urban old community renovation were issued, a year - on - year increase of 89% [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange publicly solicited opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard [6]. - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the measures for imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States. The 24% additional tariff rate on US - made goods will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on US - made goods will be retained [6]. - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced a total of 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily output decrease of 9.8% month - on - month; the steel inventory was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons from the previous ten - day period, a decline of 11.8% [6]. - President Xi Jinping emphasized when listening to the report on the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port that the goals of building the Hainan Free Trade Port should be fully achieved. It is necessary to steadily expand institutional opening - up and further improve the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. It is necessary to further promote the opening - up of the flow of goods and factors and better promote the cross - border flow of production factors [6]. - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China exported 828,000 vehicles; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3% [6]. - According to data from the General Administration of Customs on November 7, 2025, in October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel, a decrease of 683,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 6.5%; from January to October, the cumulative export volume of steel was 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [6]. - According to data from the General Administration of Customs on November 7, 2025, in October 2025, China exported 351.907 million household appliances; from January to October, the cumulative export volume was 3.711632 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [6].