| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需有所回升，产量继续回落，库存延续上升态势。热卷需求继续好转，产量同步回升，库存继续累 积。铁水产量维持高位，市场面临负反馈压力，不过库存整体水平偏低，空间并不是太大，阅兵临近关注唐山等地限产力度。 从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基建、制造业增速逐步放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，关 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-25） | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ | 会议不及预期，鲍威尔释放降息信号， | 大宗商品受到支撑。国内高炉限产预期被阶段性证伪，铁矿需求影响不大， | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金层面博弈加剧。产业层面，铁矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比 | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉 | | | | | | | | | 铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。 | 8 | 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期，但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本 | | | | | | | | | | 面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | 煤焦：受福建大田煤矿事故影响，以及反内卷初见成效，煤焦夜盘大幅拉 | | | | | | | | | | | 涨。产地煤矿整体恢复 ...

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年08月22日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需有所回升，产量继续回落，库存延续上升态势。热卷需求继续好转，产量同步回升，库存继 续累积。铁水产量维持高位，市场面临负反馈压力，不过库存整体水平偏低，空间并不是太大，阅兵临近关注唐山等地限产力 度。从下游行业看，地产销售降幅扩大，投资端继续大幅下滑 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 22 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-22） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，到港量环比回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下亦 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处于 | | | | | 高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | | 煤焦 ...

| | | | 11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月21日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證時 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需有所回升，产量继续回落，库存延续上升态势。热卷需求继续好转，产量同步回升，库存继 续累积。铁水维持高位，市场面临负反馈压力，不过库存整体水平偏低，空间并不是太大，阅兵临近关注唐山等地限产力度。 从下游行业看，地产销售降幅扩大，投资端继续大幅下 ...

1 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 21 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-21） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，港口库存小幅回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处 | | | | | 于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing weak demand in the off - season, but with the rapid release of pressure, it is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the commodity market trend [2] - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have sufficient carbon element supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and their prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatility and relatively small downside space [4][6] - The silicomanganese market has good demand, and its price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal [7] - The ferrosilicon market has good overall demand, and its price follows the trend of silicomanganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly decreases, and inventory accumulation accelerates; the hot - rolled coil's apparent demand improves, production slightly increases, and inventory accumulation slows down [2] - The hot metal remains at a high level, and the market still faces negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low [2] - From the downstream industries, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global iron ore shipments are seasonally rising, and domestic arrivals are increasing, with port inventories continuing to rise [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel is declining, hot metal remains at a high level, and short - term iron ore demand is supported by high hot metal, but there is a production reduction expectation for hot metal in the future [3] Coke - Due to the approaching major event, there is a new expectation of production restrictions for coking plants in East China [4] - After the seventh round of price increases for coke, coking profits have improved, and daily production has slightly increased [4] - Coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4] Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot transaction market is at a good level, and the transaction price is mainly rising [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory at the production end has decreased less [6] Silicomanganese - Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines [7] - The weekly production of silicomanganese continues to increase, and the inventory has not increased yet, with good spot and futures demand [7] - Manganese ore prices have slightly decreased this week, and manufacturers have stocked up in advance due to the approaching major event [7] Ferrosilicon - Hot metal production has slightly decreased, remaining above 240 [8] - Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact [8] - Ferrosilicon supply has increased significantly, and the spot and futures demand in the market is good, with a slight reduction in on - balance - sheet inventory [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported significant performance recovery with a focus on optimizing product structure. In H1 2025, revenue was 63.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.748 billion yuan, an increase of 31.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a decline in steel sales but has seen a notable recovery in gross margin, which reached 10.28% in H1 2025, up 2.91 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the total steel sales volume was 11.1 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year. Major product categories saw declines, except for coated steel [2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.28%, with long products, flat products, and pipes showing respective margins of 5.45%, 13.65%, and 10.89%, all increasing year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company is releasing high-end production capacity, with projects like the cold-rolled silicon steel line and seamless steel pipe production line progressing steadily. The first phase of the non-oriented silicon steel is expected to be operational by August 2025 [3]. - The product structure is being optimized, with key product sales accounting for 68.5% of total sales, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company has developed 75 new products, achieving six domestic firsts or import substitutions [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is implementing cost reduction measures across its operations, with 32% of its economic and technical indicators entering the advanced category. Adjustments in structure have led to a reduction in procurement costs by approximately 250 million yuan [4]. - The self-generated electricity reached 4.922 billion kWh in the reporting period, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.465 billion yuan, 3.993 billion yuan, and 4.434 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [5][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rebar and Coil: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-Year Treasury Bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Palm Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Oscillating and correcting [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The short-term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily disproven, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market corrections. The fundamentals of various commodities show different characteristics, with some facing supply and demand imbalances, while others are affected by policy, market sentiment, and cost factors [2][4][6][8][10]. - The fiscal revenue has shown positive growth, and the central bank has increased support for disaster-stricken areas. The market sentiment for stock index futures is bullish, while the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. Gold is affected by multiple factors and is expected to maintain high-level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron Ore: Global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly risen, but there is no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory under high port clearance. Terminal demand is weak, and steel mills have limited motivation to cut production actively. In late August, there are expectations of production cuts in northern regions, but the intensity is lower than expected. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure is weak, and coking coal is undergoing high-level adjustments. The overall recovery of coal mines in the production areas is still slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines last week reached the lowest level since March 2024. The downstream coking and steel enterprises maintain high operating rates, and some coal mines have saturated pre-sales orders. In the short term, coal prices are still supported. Overall, the long-term coking production restrictions in Hebei and Shandong have positive factors on the supply side, and the short-term adjustment range is limited. To break through the previous high, continuous reduction in supply is required [2]. - Rebar and Coil: The production restriction policy for Tangshan steel mills is clear, and the reduction is lower than expected. The demand for building materials has declined month-on-month, external demand exports have been overdrawn in advance, real estate investment continues to decline, and the total demand is difficult to show counter-seasonal performance. With no increase in total demand throughout the year, a pattern of high in the front and low in the back will be formed. The profits of the five major steel products are acceptable, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has declined, and steel mill inventories have accelerated to accumulate. The increase in social inventories has expanded. In mid-August, there are expectations of supply contraction due to military parade production restrictions, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market is not large. During the traditional peak season, the spot demand for rebar is still weak, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts. In the short term, rebar futures will undergo significant adjustments to find support [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and the middle and lower reaches are in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with a significant weakening of restocking demand. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly. There is no water release or ignition of glass production lines, the operating rate is basically stable, weekly production remains unchanged month-on-month, and manufacturer inventories continue to accumulate. During the military parade, it is unlikely for glass factories in Shahe to stop production. The market is subject to many sentiment disturbances, and there is room for restocking in the middle and lower reaches of the glass industry, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle, and the demand for glass is difficult to rebound significantly. In the short term, the spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. - Soda Ash: The short-term spot is weak, the futures price has broken through the support level, and attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2] Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures/Options: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index closed down 0.93%, the CSI 500 Index closed down 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index closed up 0.07%. Funds flowed into the soft drink and forestry sectors, while funds flowed out of the insurance and aerospace and defense sectors. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, the highest monthly growth rate this year. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, and the growth rate turned positive. Since April, national tax revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, driving the continuous recovery of fiscal revenues. In July, tax revenues increased by 5%, reaching a new high this year, and the decline in tax revenues from January to July narrowed significantly by 0.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The People's Bank of China has increased the quota of re-lending for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. Market sentiment is bullish, and liquidity is increasing. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yield to maturity of the 10-year China Bond has decreased by 1bp, FR007 has increased by 7bps, and SHIBOR3M has remained flat. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on August 19, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of treasury bonds is weakening. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The actions of central banks are crucial, reflecting the demand for "decentralization" and risk aversion. In terms of currency attributes, Trump's "Make America Great Again" bill has been passed, which may exacerbate the US debt problem and lead to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. In the process of de-dollarization, the non-fiat currency attribute of gold is prominent. In terms of financial attributes, in a global high-interest rate environment, the substitution effect of gold as a zero-yield bond for bonds has weakened, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds has decreased. In terms of risk aversion, geopolitical risks have marginally weakened, but Trump's tariff policies have intensified global trade tensions, and market risk aversion remains, which is an important factor driving up the gold price. In terms of commodity attributes, the demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, and the central bank has restarted gold purchases since November last year and has increased its holdings for eight consecutive months. Currently, the logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policies may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest rate policy will be more cautious, and the evolution of tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. According to the latest US data, non-farm payrolls show that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, non-farm employment is lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%. The PCE data in June shows that inflation has slowed down, with core PCE rising by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and PCE rising by 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding market expectations. In July, CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, the same as the previous month. In the short term, the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine may increase, which will suppress the risk aversion demand for gold. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reaches about 85%, and the rate cut expectation has been fully priced in. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech this week, and it is expected that the gold price will remain in high-level oscillation [4]. Light Industry and Agriculture - Pulp: The spot market price was stable on the previous trading day. The latest FOB price for softwood pulp remained at $720/ton, and for hardwood pulp at $500/ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The profitability of the paper industry is at a low level, paper mills have high inventory pressure, and their acceptance of high-priced pulp is low. Demand is in the off-season, and raw materials are purchased on a rigid basis, which is negative for pulp prices. The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is at a critical point. It is expected that pulp prices will mainly consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, the willingness of processing plants to stock up has increased, and the average daily outbound volume has remained relatively stable at over 60,000 cubic meters. In July, the volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China was 1.476 million cubic meters, a 5% increase from the previous month. The shipment volume in July was low, and it is expected that the arrival volume in August will remain low. The expected arrival volume this week is 323,000 cubic meters, a month-on-month increase. The recent arrival of ships has decreased, and the supply pressure is not large. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters, approaching the critical threshold of 3 million cubic meters. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline. The spot market price is stable, with the price of 6-meter Class A logs in the Shandong spot market stable at 790 yuan/cubic meter and in the Jiangsu market at 800 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price in August is $116/cubic meter, a $2 increase from the previous month, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, the expected arrival of logs this week will increase month-on-month, the overall supply pressure is not large, and as the processing plants' willingness to stock up increases as September approaches, the average daily outbound volume remains at 63,000 cubic meters. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and it is expected that log prices will mainly range-bound [6]. - Oils and Fats: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued the trend of increasing production and inventory accumulation, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. Although the production increase was lower than expected, it was still at a relatively high level. Shipping agency data shows that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil has been strong since August. Although the implementation time of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain, the demand growth still provides long-term support for palm oil prices. The import volume of soybeans to China in August remains high, oil mills have a high operating rate, and the export volume of soybean oil to India has increased, but it has not stopped the inventory accumulation trend of soybean oil in oil mills. Palm oil inventory may rebound, and rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory. The double festival stocking may gradually start, and demand will pick up. However, international crude oil futures have declined, and Chicago soybean oil futures have also fallen, dragging down the price of oils and fats. After a significant increase in the early stage, oils and fats may oscillate and correct in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Grains and Oilseeds: The USDA has significantly reduced the planted area of soybeans. Although the yield per unit has increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there is some rain in the central and western regions, but the temperature is high. The crop inspection data from ProFarmer shows that the number of pods per plant is higher than last year and the three-year average, and there are still expectations of a bumper harvest for US soybeans. The Ministry of Commerce has imposed anti-dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed, increasing the import cost, and the market is worried about a supply shortage. Before the export of US soybeans shows substantial improvement, the high premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is difficult to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, the operating rhythm of oil mills is generally high, and the inventory of soybean meal is at a high level, with a very abundant supply. After the downstream has completed centralized restocking, the purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. It is expected that soybean meal will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [6]. - Live Pigs: On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs in China continues to decline. The average trading weight of live pigs has dropped to 124.03 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01%. The average trading weights of live pigs in various provinces have fluctuated, but overall, they are still decreasing. The recent increase in temperature has slowed down the weight gain of live pigs, and after the premium of fat pigs over standard pigs turned positive, the price of large pigs is relatively high. Slaughtering enterprises have increased their procurement of low-priced standard pigs to relieve the procurement pressure, resulting in a decline in the overall procurement weight. As the breeding side may continue to adopt a weight reduction strategy and slaughtering enterprises will still focus on purchasing standard pigs, it is expected that the average trading weight of live pigs in most regions will continue to decline. On the demand side, the average settlement price of live pigs for key slaughtering enterprises in China last week was 14.17 yuan/kg. The settlement price has shown a downward trend. Affected by the accelerated slaughtering rhythm of the breeding side and the impact of high temperatures on terminal consumption, slaughtering enterprises have pressured prices for procurement, causing the price to fall from a high level. The average operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises is 33.25%, a month-on-month increase of 0.76 percentage points. The price difference between fat and standard pigs in China has shown an oscillating and fluctuating trend, and the overall average has remained stable. At the beginning of the week, due to the tight supply of large pigs in some regions, the price of fat pigs was supported, driving the price difference to widen. As the supply of large pigs in some regions increased and demand was flat, the price difference narrowed. Near the weekend, due to the increased enthusiasm of the breeding side for slaughtering, the concentrated release of standard pig supply led to a rapid decline in prices, causing the price difference to widen again. Against the background of a continuous increase in live pig supply and high temperatures continuing to restrict consumption demand, the weekly average price of live pigs in the next week may remain oscillating [8]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Natural Rubber: The impact of weather factors in the main natural rubber producing areas has weakened, but the geopolitical conflict has not been effectively resolved, slightly interfering with rubber tapping work. The profit from rubber tapping in the Yunnan production area has increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials has supported the purchase price at a high level. The weather in the Hainan production area is currently good, but the overall latex production is lower than the same period last year and lower than expectations. Driven by the futures market, the procurement enthusiasm of local processing plants has increased, and the raw material purchase price has also increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber has continued to rise, but the profit has continued to narrow, and the rubber tapping progress in some areas is restricted by geopolitical factors. The weather in the Vietnam production area is good, and the raw material price has also shown an upward trend. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.7%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full-steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80 percentage points. In terms of production, the overall capacity of semi-steel tire enterprises has been dragged down by the shutdown and production reduction of individual factories, while the utilization rate of full-steel tire enterprises has increased due to the resumption of work of some maintenance enterprises and the moderate increase in production of enterprises with shortages. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tires may show a differentiated trend. On the one hand, the resumption of work of

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Not clearly defined [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not clearly defined [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, with an unclear specific meaning in the context provided [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with the real - estate sector showing a decline in sales and investment, and the growth of infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down. However, steel exports remain at a relatively high level. The short - term trading floor of steel is suppressed by weak demand, but the decline may slow down after continuous adjustments [2] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions. The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled due to weak real - world demand, and the trading floor is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The short - term volatility of coke and coking coal prices is large, and the downward space is relatively small. Their prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal. The price bottom is gradually rising [7] - The price of silicon iron is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The trading floor continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production slightly declined, and inventory accumulation accelerated significantly. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil improved, production slightly increased, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The pig iron output remained high, and the negative feedback expectation increased. Considering the approaching parade, attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] Iron Ore - The trading floor fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased seasonally, stronger than the same period last year, the domestic arrival volume increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel decreased, pig iron output slightly increased, and steel mills had high profit ratios and lacked the motivation to actively reduce production. In the short term, iron ore demand was still supported by high pig iron output, but there was an expectation of pig iron production reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price fluctuated mainly within the day. Due to the approaching major event, there was an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China. After the seventh round of price increase, the coking profit improved, and the daily coking output slightly increased. The overall coke inventory continued to decline, and traders had a good purchasing intention [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated mainly within the day. The output of coking coal mines decreased, the spot trading market remained at a good level, and the transaction price mainly increased. The terminal inventory remained flat, and the total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month. There was a high probability of continuous inventory reduction in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - The price declined within the day. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The pig iron output remained at a high level, the weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase, and the inventory did not accumulate. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Silicon Iron - The price declined within the day. The pig iron output slightly decreased but remained above 240. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium output decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand decreased marginally. The supply of silicon iron continued to increase significantly, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly [8]