Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock" rating for the steel and ore sector in the black building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The support and pressure levels for different varieties are as follows: the support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; the support level for hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; the support level for iron ore is 750, and the pressure level is 840. For trading strategies, short-term operations are recommended for single positions. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held, and conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The strategy of going long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (going long on rebar and short on iron ore) is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short term, and exit at an appropriate time after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore closed higher, and they also closed higher during the night session [1] Important Information - From January to February, transportation fixed asset investment reached 355.8 billion yuan, with highway and waterway investments of 244.9 billion yuan and 28 billion yuan respectively [1] - The east - west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia is operating at a full - capacity of 7 million barrels per day [1] - On March 30, Rio Tinto announced that iron ore port operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia had fully resumed, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipping guidance remained at 323 - 338 million tons [1] - The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations in Iran. Trump threatened to "completely destroy all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island in Iran" if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. Iranian officials said they would cut off power to the entire region if power generation facilities were attacked [1] - The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rials, and banning US and Israeli ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On the 30th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3220 yuan, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, up 10 yuan [1] - On the 30th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port increased by 4 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 786 yuan (up 4 yuan), Super Special powder was 672 yuan (up 4 yuan), 61.6% PB lump was 894 yuan (up 4 yuan), Carajás fines was 949 yuan (up 4 yuan), and SPGF mixed powder was 756 yuan (up 4 yuan) [1] - On the 30th, the spot market for coke at ports remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The volume of trade collection at the two ports decreased slightly compared with the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports continued to increase compared with the previous working day. The inventory at Rizhao Port was 470,000 tons (unchanged), and at Qingdao Port it was 900,000 tons (up 70,000 tons), with a total inventory of 1.37 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last week [1] - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.436 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.547 million tons [1] - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total global iron ore shipping volume was 24.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.719 million tons. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.843 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 176.6683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4735 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9809 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at national steel mills was 89.7856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.555 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profit rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0294 million tons [1][2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.87 percentage points. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points [2] Trading Strategy - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its volatile trend. For single positions, short - term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held. Given that the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have been weaker than rebar recently, conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The current rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.86. The strategy of going long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (going long on rebar and short on iron ore) is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short term, and exit at an appropriate time after the holiday [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given star - rating description [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - sentiment, with cost support under inflation expectations, and the rhythm may be volatile. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile. Coke and coking coal prices may be prone to rise due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts. The silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also affected by various factors such as energy prices and demand [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand improved, production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil demand improvement slowed, production increased, and inventory gradually decreased but pressure remained. Blast furnaces continued seasonal resumption, and iron - water production increased, but poor steel mill profits restricted further increase. From January - February data, real - estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, and steel exports declined from high levels. The spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated today. Global shipments decreased significantly compared to the previous period and were weaker than the same period last year. Australian shipments declined due to a hurricane, while Brazilian and non - mainstream shipments increased. Domestic arrivals rebounded and were stronger than the same period last year. Terminal demand entered the peak season, iron - water production increased last week, and there is still room for resumption. Geopolitical conflicts bring uncertainty, and high oil prices provide cost support. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated during the day. Coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. Carbon element supply is abundant, downstream iron - water production increased slightly, and steel profits improved slightly. Coke futures are at a premium, and coking coal futures are at a large premium to Mongolian coal. High Mongolian coal customs - clearance data still drags down the market. Geopolitical conflicts may make coke prices prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated widely during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume was 1,230 vehicles. Coal mine production returned to a high level, weekly production decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions were good with rising prices mainly due to energy concerns. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and there was some restocking. Total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Carbon element supply is abundant, downstream iron - water production increased slightly, and steel profits improved slightly. Coke and coking coal futures premiums and high Mongolian coal customs - clearance data still drag down the market. Geopolitical conflicts may make coking coal prices prone to rise [6] Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese prices fluctuated during the day. With rising energy prices, there is an expectation of increased manganese ore mining and transportation costs. Spot manganese ore transaction prices continued to rise, and port inventory increased slightly. Under the influence of typhoons, the inventory accumulation rate at ports is expected to decline. Iron - water production increased significantly on the demand side. Silicon - manganese supply decreased slightly, factory inventory decreased, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly, with overall inventory decreasing [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices were strongly volatile during the day. Lanthanum - carbon prices increased significantly, eroding some smelting profits. As spot prices followed the futures prices, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and losses in other areas decreased. Iron - water production rebounded significantly on the demand side. Export demand remained at about 25,000 tons, with little marginal impact, and monthly export volume is expected to remain at about 35,000 tons in the medium - to - long term. Magnesium metal production remained at a high level, and secondary demand was relatively stable. Overall demand is still resilient. Ferrosilicon weekly supply decreased slightly, inventory decreased overall, and prices may be driven by silicon - manganese [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their volatile trends. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed, including short - term operations, arbitrage strategies such as long - spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and long - rebar and short - iron ore strategies [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Friday, rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore closed down. At night, hot - rolled coils closed down while rebar and iron ore closed up [1] Important Information - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% (calculated on a comparable basis) [1] - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February [1] - Some ships from three countries were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. On March 28, Iran agreed to let 20 more Pakistani ships pass through, allowed several Malaysian oil tankers stranded in the strait to pass, and Thailand reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its oil tankers [1] - On March 28, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched their first military operation in response to the escalating regional situation, using multiple ballistic missiles to strike "important military targets" in Israel [1] - On March 30, 2026, Tangshan, Handan, Cangzhou, Langfang, Baoding, Hengshui and other places lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [1] Market Logic - On the 27th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan, unchanged [1] - On the 27th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port decreased by 3 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 785 yuan, down 3 yuan [1] - On the 27th, the spot market of port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The total inventory of the two ports increased. The inventory at Rizhao Port was 470,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; at Qingdao Port was 830,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the total inventory was 1.3 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last week [1] - Last week, rebar production decreased by 54,600 tons, apparent demand increased by 172,800 tons, and the inventory decreased by 275,000 tons (47,600 tons the week before last). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 54,000 tons, apparent demand increased by 31,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 80,200 tons (103,000 tons the week before last). Overall, the fundamentals of rebar were stronger than those of hot - rolled coils last week [1] - Last week, the daily output of molten iron was 2.31 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons. The profitability rate was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 176.6683 million tons, a decrease of 1.4735 million tons from the previous week; at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a decrease of 0.9809 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 89.7856 million tons, a decrease of 0.555 million tons from the previous week [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profitability rate was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average output of molten iron was 2.3109 million tons, an increase of 29,400 tons [1][2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous week and 3.87 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating rate was 68.82%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 4.51 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Trading Strategies - It is expected that steel and ore will continue to fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar are 3000 and 3200 respectively; for hot - rolled coils are 3180 and 3350 respectively; for iron ore are 750 and 840 respectively [2] - For single - side trading, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For arbitrage, the strategy of long - spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can be held cautiously. The closing price difference on Friday was 175. Conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions due to the weaker fundamentals of hot - rolled coils than rebar recently [2] - The ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.85. The strategy of long - rebar and short - iron ore is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short - term, and exit after the holiday [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - sentiment, with cost support below, and attention should be paid to the Iran situation and peak - season demand [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with supply increasing and demand improving marginally, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts and market trends [3] - The coke and coking coal markets may be driven up by energy concerns due to geopolitical conflicts, with sufficient carbon element supply and improved downstream steel profits [4][6] - The silicomanganese market is affected by the typhoon's impact on manganese ore shipping, with iron - water production increasing and inventory slightly rising [7] - The ferrosilicon market has improved profitability in some regions, with overall demand remaining resilient and supply and inventory rising slightly [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. Thread demand improved, production decreased, and inventory declined. Hot - roll demand improvement slowed, production increased, and inventory pressure remained [2] - After the conference, blast - furnace production resumed rapidly, but poor steel - mill profits restricted further growth. Domestic demand improved marginally, and steel exports declined from the high level [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was strong today. Global shipments increased, and domestic port inventories entered the de - stocking stage. Terminal demand continued to improve, and steel - mill production resumed [3] - Geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices provided cost support, and the market was expected to be volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated downward during the day. Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory changed little. Traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly [4] - Carbon element supply was sufficient, downstream iron - water production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The futures price was at a premium, and prices may be pushed up by energy concerns [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated during the day. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1,516 vehicles yesterday. Coal - mine production resumed well, and spot auction prices increased [6] - Carbon element supply was sufficient, downstream iron - water production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The futures price was at a large premium to Mongolian coal, and prices may be pushed up by energy concerns [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices fluctuated during the day. The impact of the typhoon on manganese ore shipping was small and short - term. Spot manganese ore prices increased, and port inventories increased slightly [7] - Iron - water production increased significantly, silicomanganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated during the day. Some regions turned profitable, and the loss in other regions decreased. Iron - water production rebounded significantly [8] - Export demand was stable at around 25,000 tons, and metal - magnesium production remained high. Supply and inventory increased slightly, and prices may be driven by silicomanganese [8]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the black building materials - steel and ore sector [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - It is expected that the steel and ore markets will show a volatile trend, and neither has broken through the resistance levels. The trading strategy includes short - term operations for single - side trades, continuing to hold the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread with an adjusted stop - loss and take - profit, and seizing opportunities to go long on the rebar - to - iron ore ratio [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all rose and then fell. They all closed down at night [1] 2. Important News - By the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1] - In February 2026, China's stainless steel imports were 122,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,200 tons (15.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 37,400 tons (23.39%). From January to February 2026, the total stainless steel imports were 267,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54,600 tons (16.93%). In February 2026, the domestic stainless steel exports were 260,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,400 tons (11.78%) and a year - on - year decrease of 15,200 tons (5.53%). From January to February 2026, the total stainless steel exports were 492,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,700 tons (34.78%). In February 2026, the net export volume was 137,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49,600 tons (56.49%). From January to February 2026, the net export volume was 225,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 208,000 tons (48.00%) [1] - Iran refused to accept US President's special envoy Witkoff and Trump's son - in - law Kushner as US negotiators, accusing them of "perfidy" [1] - Since March 25, the atmospheric diffusion conditions in Handan City have deteriorated, and the heavy - pollution weather emergency command center decided to launch a level - II emergency response from 14:00 on March 25, 2026 [1] - Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations stated that non - belligerent countries' ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination [1] - Iran rejected the US - proposed cease - fire plan and put forward five conditions for a cease - fire [1] 3. Market Logic - On the 25th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3,300 yuan, unchanged [1] - On the 25th, the market prices of major imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port fell by 3 yuan per wet ton [1] - On the 25th, the spot market of port coke remained stable, the trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market improved, the total inventory of the two ports increased compared to the previous working day, with Rizhao Port's inventory increasing by 1 to 46, Qingdao Port's inventory increasing by 1.5 to 80, and the total inventory reaching 126, an increase of 11 compared to last week [1][2] 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trades, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For the spread trading, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread, with the stop - loss level of the spread raised to 140 and the take - profit level around 200 [2] - For the rebar - to - iron ore ratio, seize opportunities to go long on the rebar - to - iron ore ratio (go long on rebar and short on iron ore), with the target ratio above 4, while also paying attention to the impact of the later main contract roll - over [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows mixed trends with demand and supply changes, and cost support remains strong. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices may be affected by geopolitical conflicts and are prone to rise. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are influenced by various factors such as supply, demand, and external events [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. Thread demand improved, production increased, and inventory started to decline. Hot roll demand gradually improved, production increased, and inventory decreased from a high level. After the conference, blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and molten iron production increased significantly. Steel mill profits are still poor, restricting the future increase. From January to February data, real estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, domestic demand improved marginally, and steel exports declined from a high level. With the decline in oil prices, inflation expectations cooled, and the futures market declined, but cost support remains strong. Short - term fluctuations are expected, and attention should be paid to the Iran situation and peak - season demand [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. Global shipments increased compared to the previous period and were stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals increased, and port inventory entered the seasonal destocking stage. The problem of liquidity disturbance of some ore types is expected to be alleviated. Terminal demand continued to pick up in the peak season, and molten iron production increased significantly after the end of production reduction disturbances. There is still room for production resumption, and iron ore demand improved marginally. External geopolitical conflicts show signs of easing, and rising oil prices provide phased cost support. The iron ore futures market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - The coke price declined slightly during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory changed little, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. Overall, carbon element supply is sufficient, downstream molten iron production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The coke futures market is at a premium. Geopolitical conflicts may cause coking coal to drive up coke prices, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,516 vehicles. Coal mine resumption is good, weekly production continued to increase slightly, and spot auction transactions were good this week, with transaction prices rising. This is mainly due to market concerns about energy rather than abundant supply. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and restocking actions were few. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, carbon element supply is sufficient, downstream molten iron production increased significantly, and steel profits improved slightly. The coking coal futures market is at a large premium to Mongolian coal, and although Mongolian coal customs clearance data remains high, the suppression is weak. Geopolitical conflicts may cause coking coal prices to be prone to rise, and attention should be paid to geopolitical news [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The impact of the typhoon in northeastern Australia on the manganese ore shipments from Groote Eylandt is relatively small and short - term. The spot manganese ore transaction price continued to rise, and manganese ore port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory accumulation rate at ports will decrease under the influence of the typhoon. On the demand side, molten iron production increased significantly. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the drive of the black - series market [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. As the spot price followed the futures price increase, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and the loss in other areas decreased. On the demand side, molten iron production rebounded significantly. Export demand remained at about 25,000 tons, with little marginal impact, and the monthly export volume is expected to remain at about 35,000 tons in the medium - to - long term. The production of magnesium metal remained at a high level, and secondary demand was relatively stable. Overall, demand still has resilience. Ferrosilicon weekly supply increased slightly, inventory increased overall, and the price may be mainly driven by silicon manganese [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore closed higher, and they also closed higher during the night session [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The US government proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [1]. - US President Trump said the US is communicating with the "right people", and Iran "wants to reach an agreement", also claiming success in the Iran issue [1]. - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor emphasized that Iran will stop the war only after getting all compensations, having all economic sanctions lifted, and obtaining international legal guarantees of US non - interference [1]. - In February 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 2.91% year - on - year, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.66% year - on - year, the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel decreased by 1.43% year - on - year, and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.05% year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, the crude steel output of 69 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On the 24th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, up 10 yuan [1]. - On the 24th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port remained stable. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 794 yuan per wet ton, unchanged [1]. - On the 24th, the spot market of port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market improved, the quantity of coke collected at the two ports increased slightly compared with the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports continued to increase [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - It is expected that steel and ore will fluctuate with a bullish bias. The support level for rebar futures is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; for hot - rolled coil, the support level is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; for iron ore futures, the support level is 750, and the pressure level is 840 [1]. - For unilateral trading, short - term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, continue to hold the strategy of going long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. The closing spread on Tuesday night was 180, the stop - loss spread is recommended to be raised to 140, and the take - profit level is around 200 [1]. - The rebar - to - iron - ore ratio is 3.82. It is recommended to take the opportunity to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, that is, go long on rebar and short on iron ore, with the target ratio rising to 4 [1]. - Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the later main contract roll - over [1][2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The steel market shows mixed trends with demand improvement but limited profit and uncertain sustainability. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices may rise due to energy concerns. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and external events [2][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures prices declined slightly today. Thread demand and production increased, and inventory started to decrease. Hot roll demand improved, but inventory pressure remains. After the conference, blast furnace production recovered, but steel mill profits are poor, limiting further growth. Domestic demand improved marginally, and steel exports declined from the high level. Cost supports steel prices, and the short - term market may fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were slightly stronger today. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose but were still weaker than last year. Port inventory entered the seasonal destocking phase. Terminal demand continued to improve, and iron ore demand increased marginally. The external geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices provide cost support, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices declined slightly today. Coking profits are average, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory changed little, and traders' purchasing willingness improved. Carbon supply is abundant, and downstream iron production increased significantly. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the price may rise due to energy concerns [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined slightly today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1516 vehicles yesterday. Coal mine production recovered well, and the weekly production increased. Spot auction transactions were good, and prices rose due to energy concerns. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased. The futures price is at a large premium to Mongolian coal, and the price may rise due to energy concerns [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose and then fell today. The impact of the typhoon on manganese ore shipments was small and short - term. Spot manganese ore prices rose, and port inventory increased slightly. Iron production increased significantly, while silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory increased [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices were mainly volatile today. Some main production areas turned profitable, and the loss in other areas decreased. Iron production rebounded significantly, and export demand was stable. Metal magnesium production remained high, and overall demand was resilient. Supply increased slightly, and inventory rose. Prices may be driven by silicon manganese [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is showing signs of strength, with improving demand and inventory decline, but the recovery space is restricted by poor steel mill profits [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with increased supply and improving demand [3] - The coke market is likely to rise due to energy concerns and improved downstream demand [4] - The coking coal market may also rise due to energy concerns, despite ample supply [6] - The ferrosilicon manganese market is affected by the typhoon and black - series trends [7] - The ferrosilicon market has improving demand and is likely to be driven by ferrosilicon manganese [8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand and production increased, and inventory declined. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, but inventory pressure remains. After the conference, blast furnace production recovered, but steel mill profits limit further increase. Domestic demand improved marginally, and steel exports declined from the high level. Cost support is strong, and the short - term trend is strong but with fluctuations [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was volatile last week. Global shipments increased, with Australia's shipments rising significantly and Brazil's declining. Domestic arrivals increased but were weaker than last year. Steel mill production increased, and demand improved. Geopolitical conflicts bring cost support, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory changed little, and trader purchasing improved. With abundant carbon supply, increased downstream iron - making production, and improved steel profits, the coke price is likely to rise due to energy concerns [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices hit the daily limit. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 1329 vehicles. Coal mine production recovered well, and spot auction prices increased due to energy concerns. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and total coking coal inventory increased. The price is likely to rise due to energy concerns [6] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Ferrosilicon manganese prices were volatile at a high level. The typhoon had a small and short - term impact on manganese ore shipments. Spot prices rose, and port inventory increased slightly. Iron - making production increased, while ferrosilicon manganese production decreased slightly and inventory increased [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose during the day. Some main production areas turned profitable, and export demand was stable. Metal magnesium production remained high, and overall demand was resilient. Supply and inventory increased, and prices may be driven by ferrosilicon manganese [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand recovery, production increase, and cost support, with short - term fluctuations and attention to the Iranian situation and peak - season demand [1] - The iron ore market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but an overall loose supply pattern, and the disk is expected to be volatile [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have a tendency to be easy to rise and hard to fall [3][5] - The silicomanganese market is affected by factors such as mine shipments and iron - water production, and attention should be paid to weather impacts [6] - The ferrosilicon market has resilient demand and its price may be driven by silicomanganese [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production increased this week, and inventory started to decline. Hot - rolled coil demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased from a high level but the pressure remained [1] - After the conference, blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot - metal production increased significantly. However, poor steel - mill profits restricted the future increase space [1] - From January - February data, real - estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, domestic demand improved marginally but its sustainability needed to be observed, and steel exports declined from a high level [1] - Macroeconomic sentiment weakened, putting pressure on the disk, but cost support was still strong under inflation expectations, and there would be short - term fluctuations [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose today. On the supply side, global shipments fluctuated normally, domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory declined this week, entering the seasonal destocking stage [2] - On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak season, terminal demand continued to recover, steel - mill production was profitable, and hot - metal production resumed significantly after the end of phased production restrictions [2] - External geopolitical conflicts continued, and rising oil prices provided short - term cost support. The overall supply pattern remained loose, and the disk was expected to be volatile [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. Coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory changed little, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly [3] - Carbon supply was abundant, downstream hot - metal production increased significantly, and steel profit margins improved slightly. The coke disk was at a premium, and due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts, coke prices were likely to rise rather than fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,461 vehicles. Coal - mine resumption was good, weekly production continued to increase slightly, and spot auction transactions were good this week, with prices rising [5] - The increase was mainly due to market concerns about energy, terminal inventory increased slightly, and restocking actions were limited. Total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly [5] - Carbon supply was abundant, downstream hot - metal production increased significantly, and steel profit margins improved slightly. The coking - coal disk was at a large premium to Mongolian coal, but the suppression of high - level customs clearance data was weak. Due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts, coking - coal prices were likely to rise rather than fall [5] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices fluctuated upward during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of a typhoon in northeastern Australia on the manganese - ore shipments from Groote Eylandt [6] - Spot manganese - ore transaction prices continued to rise, port manganese - ore inventory decreased slightly, and mine shipments increased month - on - month, but mine costs were higher than in previous years, and the price - concession space might be limited [6] - On the demand side, hot - metal production increased significantly. Silicomanganese weekly production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to weather - related impacts [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated upward during the day. As spot prices followed the disk price increase, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and the loss in other areas decreased [7] - On the demand side, hot - metal production remained at a low - season level. Export demand remained above 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal - magnesium production remained high, and secondary demand was relatively stable, with overall demand remaining resilient [7] - Ferrosilicon weekly supply decreased slightly, inventory increased, and prices might be driven by silicomanganese [7]