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申万宏源:反内卷叠加西芒杜投产 钢铁产业链利润格局重塑
智通财经网· 2025-11-20 06:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a shift in China's steel consumption structure from the construction industry to the manufacturing sector, suggesting a focus on undervalued, high-dividend plate stocks and high-end stainless steel pipe materials in the context of industry transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - The steel industry is expected to undergo a transformation with a focus on manufacturing, leading to stable demand for certain steel products [1] - Special steel consumption in sectors such as energy, new infrastructure, aerospace, and national defense is becoming increasingly significant [1] Group 2: Profitability Improvement Factors - Cost side: The decline in raw material prices and a more reasonable profit distribution within the industry are anticipated, with the West Mangu Iron Mine expected to start production in November 2025, leading to increased iron ore supply and a forecasted drop in iron ore prices [1] - Supply side: Policy-driven production limits and cash flow pressures on some companies are accelerating supply clearance, with a long-term focus on reducing steel production and improving industry concentration through mergers and acquisitions [1] - Demand side: Manufacturing demand remains resilient, supporting the profitability of plate and special steel sectors, while construction demand stabilizes [1]