2025 年 08 月 27 日 中信特钢 (000708) —— 2025 年半年报点评：高端产品持续放量，业绩同比 增长 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元）109,203 | | 54,715 | 107,648 | 108,832 | 109,051 | | 同比增长率（%） | -4.2 | -4.0 | -1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,126 | 2,798 | 5,463 | 5,993 | 6,286 | | 同比增长率（%） | -10.4 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.02 | 0.55 | 1.08 | 1.19 | 1.25 | | 毛利率（%） | 12.8 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.7 | | ROE（%） | 12.5 | 6. ...

中信特钢 000708.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 特钢需求有望增长，业绩提升前景可期 ——中信特钢 2025 年半年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2025 年半年报，我们做出小幅下调产品毛利率、上调营业所得税等调整， 预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.10、1.17、1.24 元（2025-2027 年原预测值为 1.12、1.20、1.28 元）。根据可比公司 2025 年 14X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 15.4 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司产品结构转型升级进度低于预期风险、原材料价格上涨风险、公司降本幅度未及预 期风险、特钢下游行业发展速度低于预期风险、宏观经济波动风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 114,019 | 109,203 | 104,795 | 104,011 | 104,157 | | 同比增长 (%) | 15.9% | -4.2% | -4.0% | -0. ...

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2025 年半年报，我们做出小幅下调产品毛利率、上调营业所得税等调整， 预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.10、1.17、1.24 元（2025-2027 年原预测值为 1.12、1.20、1.28 元）。根据可比公司 2025 年 14X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 15.4 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司产品结构转型升级进度低于预期风险、原材料价格上涨风险、公司降本幅度未及预 期风险、特钢下游行业发展速度低于预期风险、宏观经济波动风险 中信特钢 000708.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 特钢需求有望增长，业绩提升前景可期 ——中信特钢 2025 年半年报点评 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 114,019 | 109,203 | 104,795 | 104,011 | 104,157 | | 同比增长 (%) | 15.9% | -4.2% | -4.0% | -0. ...

中信特钢 000708.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 特钢需求有望增长，业绩提升前景可期 ——中信特钢 2025 年半年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2025 年半年报，我们做出小幅下调产品毛利率、上调营业所得税等调整， 预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.10、1.17、1.24 元（2025-2027 年原预测值为 1.12、1.20、1.28 元）。根据可比公司 2025 年 14X 的 PE 估值，对应目标价 15.4 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司产品结构转型升级进度低于预期风险、原材料价格上涨风险、公司降本幅度未及预 期风险、特钢下游行业发展速度低于预期风险、宏观经济波动风险 | | | 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 114,019 | 109,203 | 104,795 | 104,011 | 104,157 | | 同比增长 (%) | 15.9% | -4.2% | -4.0% ...

普钢公司业绩大幅改善，后续修复空间或依然显著 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [普钢公司业绩大幅改善，后续修复空间或依然显著 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 高 升 煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, but with the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase [5][12] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to benefit from structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [5][12] Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 2.00% this week, underperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 2.37% [12] - Among the steel sub-sectors, special steel fell by 0.92%, long products by 1.44%, and flat products by 3.15% [12] Supply Data - As of August 15, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, up by 0.13 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.601 million tons, an increase of 0.27% week-on-week [25] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.31 million tons, a decrease of 1.74% week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders was 102,000 tons, down by 1.08% week-on-week [36] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.908 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 2.94% [44] - Factory inventory of five major steel products reached 4.251 million tons, up by 2.97% week-on-week [44] Price Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,566.4 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.10% [50] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,638.7 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.01% [50] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 121 yuan, down by 23.42% week-on-week [59] - The profit per ton for electric arc furnace construction steel was -68 yuan, a significant decrease of 58.14% week-on-week [59] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 774 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [72] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1,770 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [72]

2025 年 8 月 13 日 海外供给侧改革回顾——日本篇 | 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | | | 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 日本从上世纪 70 年代开始，由于"两次石油危机—日元升值—贸易摩擦"等多重压力，经济增速放 缓。日本粗钢产量在 1973 年创下历史最高峰 1.19 亿吨后，面临需求回落、成本骤升，设备开工率走低， 企业亏损的局面，日本钢铁工业步入停滞期。日本政府在 1978 年将钢铁行业认定为萧条行业，开始进行 "供给侧改革"。政策先后经历了行政性主导，市场化调控力度加深，以及企业主导推进的方式进行落 地。通过设备淘汰、兼并重组和产业升级，日本钢铁行业从规模扩张最终转向高附加值经营，实现转型成 功。 感谢实习生姜宝灵对本文的贡献。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 宏 观 总 量 ◼ 摘要： | 1. 日本"供给侧改革"改革背景 3 | | --- | | 1.1 日本钢铁行业面临内忧外患 3 ...

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a significant rise on the 5th, with major companies like Maanshan Iron & Steel reaching the daily limit, and others such as Hualing Steel, Fangda Special Steel, New Steel, and Baotou Steel increasing by over 3% [1] - Institutions indicate that the ongoing supply-side reform is leading to a concentration of production capacity among quality leading companies. The recent commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Project is expected to boost demand for basic steel and special steel [1] - The State Council's announcement of the "Rural Road Regulations" signals a push for rural infrastructure renovation, which is likely to benefit the steel industry through the release of demand from infrastructure projects and accelerated capacity regulation [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" focus is on improving quality and efficiency, with accelerated capacity regulation in the steel supply side. The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the need to eliminate low-price disorderly competition [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission's report proposed revisions to the capacity replacement implementation methods in the steel industry, promoting the orderly exit of outdated and inefficient capacity, and continuing to implement crude steel production controls [2] - The steel industry's anti-involution will concentrate on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," aiming to transition manufacturing from "low-price homogeneous competition" to "high-end differentiated competition" through technological upgrades and innovation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain strong overall due to ongoing production cuts and favorable demand conditions, despite recent price declines and inventory increases [3][4] - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is likely to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a more concentrated supply structure, which may stabilize the overall supply-demand situation [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 2.26% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: special steel down 1.28%, long products down 4.00%, and flat products down 1.80% [10][12] - Iron ore and steel raw materials also saw declines, with iron ore down 5.96% and steel consumables down 3.74% [12] Supply Data - As of August 1, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 1.10 tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 1.56 percentage points to 57.1% [25] Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.52 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 161,000 tons, reflecting a 1.85% decline [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, down 2.07 tons week-on-week, marking an 18.00% decrease [35] Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased to 9.424 million tons, up 152,900 tons week-on-week, but down 25.37% year-on-year [43] - Factory inventory remained stable at 4.095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons [43] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,563.9 yuan/ton, down 42.25 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel index increased slightly to 6,629.6 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar production was 200 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 770 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [3][4]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.55%, outperforming the broader market [10] - The report highlights the impact of government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry, which is expected to improve the profitability of steel companies [3] - Despite facing supply-demand challenges, the overall demand for steel is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate and infrastructure [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was strong, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 8.04% and 9.04% respectively [10] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4223 million tons, showing a slight week-on-week decrease but a year-on-year increase of 2.58 million tons [3][25] 2. Supply Data - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% [25] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.681 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% [31] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased by 22.38% week-on-week, reaching 115,000 tons [36] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.271 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 0.54% [44] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.094 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.48% [43] 5. Price Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,606.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week rise of 4.16% [50] - The comprehensive index for special steel reached 6,625.5 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76% [50] 6. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 282 yuan, an increase of 64.91% week-on-week [59] - The average profit margin for 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5 percentage points [59] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]