Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 4.80%, long products by 1.27%, and flat products by 1.94% [1][2] - Iron ore segment surged by 10.15%, steel consumables by 2.94%, and trade circulation by 4.33% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 84.9%, up by 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, down by 1.12 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The output of five major steel products was 6.92 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons week-on-week [2] - Daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, up by 0.03 million tons week-on-week, but down by 28,300 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - Consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, down by 16,700 tons week-on-week [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 95,000 tons, down by 4.3% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.726 million tons, down by 339,100 tons week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 3.854 million tons, down by 28,800 tons week-on-week [3] Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,439.2 yuan/ton, down by 9.57 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,571.8 yuan/ton, up by 1.81 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 50 yuan/ton, up by 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -4 yuan/ton, up by 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 800 yuan/ton, up by 2.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal remained stable at 1,700 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Investment Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation despite current challenges [6][7] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to government "stability growth" policies supporting real estate and infrastructure [6][7] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [7] - Recommended companies include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the steel industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese government is committed to controlling crude steel production, which is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to curb low-quality competition and regulate production capacity [2]. - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's crude steel production was 892 million tons, a decrease of 4.0% year-on-year, while steel product output increased by 4.0% to 1.333 billion tons. This suggests a shift in production focus and an anticipated improvement in the supply side of the market [2]. - The report notes that the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore mine is expected to contribute significantly to iron ore supply, which may lead to a decline in iron ore prices and reduce cost pressures on steel companies [2]. - Demand is expected to show structural differentiation, with resilient demand in the manufacturing sector supporting the profitability of plate and special steel segments, while the construction sector remains weak [2]. - The report suggests that as the steel consumption structure shifts from construction to manufacturing, investors should focus on undervalued, high-dividend stocks in the plate sector, such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, as well as high-end stainless steel and special steel companies like Jiuli Special Materials and CITIC Special Steel [2]. Summary by Sections Production Control - The government has announced ongoing measures to control crude steel production and prevent the addition of new capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side of the steel market [2]. Raw Material Supply - The Simandou iron ore mine has commenced production, with an expected annual capacity of 12 million tons, contributing to a more favorable pricing environment for iron ore [2]. Demand Dynamics - The report anticipates a divergence in demand, with manufacturing-related sectors showing resilience, while construction demand remains weak [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks in the manufacturing-oriented steel sector and highlights the importance of special steel in emerging sectors like energy and defense [2].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a 3.42% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and iron ore have seen even higher gains [2][10] - Supply constraints and seasonal demand weakness are expected to lead to a gradual increase in steel prices [2][3] - The overall demand for steel is projected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3] Supply Summary - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 84.9%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 6.92 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.02% [2][25] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2658 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.03 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 28,300 tons [2][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.67 million tons [2][35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, down 0.43 tons week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products is 8.726 million tons, down 339,100 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 3.74% [2][42] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.854 million tons, down 28,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 0.74% [2][41] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,439.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9.57 yuan/ton [2][48] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] - The profit for electric arc furnace rebar is -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [2][55] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 800 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [2][72] - The price for primary metallurgical coke is 1,770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [2][72] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential for growth [2][73]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Steel has been recognized for its strong competitiveness and ESG performance, achieving the highest ratings in both categories for the 2025 assessment, showcasing its ability to balance economic and social value in the steel industry [1][2]. Group 1: Competitiveness and ESG Ratings - Nanjing Steel has received an A+ rating for competitiveness (development quality) for nine consecutive years and an AAA rating for ESG for three years [1][2]. - The 2025 competitiveness rating evaluated 109 companies, with 16 achieving A+ and 10 receiving AAA ratings, positioning Nanjing Steel in the "first tier" of domestic steel enterprises [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Product Development - Nanjing Steel has completed 215 products and technologies that meet international advanced standards, demonstrating its capability in high-end materials and green manufacturing [3]. - The company focuses on advanced steel materials, providing essential high-performance materials for major national projects and advanced manufacturing needs [3]. Group 3: Environmental and Social Responsibility - Nanjing Steel has achieved ultra-low emissions across all processes, becoming the first long-process steel enterprise in Jiangsu Province to receive an A-level environmental performance rating [4]. - The company has established a three-tier ESG governance structure and has been recognized as a national industrial tourism demonstration base, reflecting its commitment to sustainable development [4]. Group 4: Future Development Strategy - Nanjing Steel aims to enhance its competitiveness through smart manufacturing and deep collaboration across the supply chain, positioning itself for high-quality development [5]. - The company is expanding globally, establishing a global procurement and marketing network, and integrating overseas resources to enhance its value chain [5][6]. Group 5: Business Ecosystem Development - Nanjing Steel is building three business ecosystems: industrial chain, smart manufacturing services, and green low-carbon initiatives, focusing on resource security and cost advantages [6]. - The company is enhancing its digital transformation and modern industrial service platform to support manufacturing enterprises in their digital upgrades [6].

冬储行情渐行渐近，提示布局钢铁板块机会 【】【】[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [冬储行情渐行渐近， Table_Title] 提示布局钢铁板块机会 本期内容提要： ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 1.93%，表现优于大盘；其中，特 钢板块上涨 2.56%， ...

多项核心指标领 跑粤北！韶关交 出"十四五"生态 与经济双优答卷 _南方+_南方 plus 12月19日，广东 省人民政府新闻 办公室召开"'十 四五'广东成 就"韶关专场新 闻发布会，介绍 韶关市"十四 五"经济社会发 展总体情况。 韶关市委副书 记、市长吴庆华 表示，"十四 五"期间，韶关 锚定"建设具有 区域影响力的新 韶关"总定位， 以"不能说不 行，要说怎么 办"的精神破解 改革难题，不仅 实现了经济总量 从1500亿元到 1600亿元的连续 跨越，也以 74.59%的森林覆 盖率为广东守住 了一片绿水青 山。 "'十四五'广东成就"韶关专场新闻发布会现场 多项核心指标领 跑粤北 区域影响力持续 跃升 吴庆华介 绍，"十四五"期 间，韶关在建 设"具有区域影 响力的新韶 关"上迈出坚实 有力的步伐。将 历史的底蕴、自 然的禀赋转化为 奋进的动力，全 力建设具有区域 影响力的新韶 关，不断开创韶 关现代化建设新 局面。 一是以"建设具 有区域影响力的 新韶关"为发展 总纲，做大经济 总量、做强城市 能级，区域影响 力不断增强。五 年来，韶关经济 总量先后跨过 1500亿、1600亿 两个台阶，人均 G ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that certain cyclical and consumer sectors have underperformed the market for three consecutive years, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1][6]. Industry Analysis - The sectors with the highest expected net profit growth for next year include: - Agriculture (planting, breeding, feed) - Internet e-commerce - Leisure food - Beauty care (personal care products, cosmetics) - Light manufacturing (household goods, entertainment products) - Automotive services - Social services (hotel catering, tourist attractions) - Cement [1][6]. - Historical data since 2010 shows that industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years and then outperformed in the fourth year include: - Food and beverage (leisure food, food processing, seasoning and fermentation products, non-brewed beverages) - Agriculture (breeding, feed, planting) - Beauty care (cosmetics, personal care products) - Infrastructure - Tourist attractions [1][6]. Financial Metrics - Expected net profit growth rates for various sectors by 2026 are as follows: - Planting: 41% - Breeding: 32% - Chemical fiber: 42% - Chemical raw materials: 24% - Automotive services: 24% - Internet e-commerce: 44% - Cement: 22% [2][7]. - The PE (Price to Earnings) ratios over the past three years indicate reasonable valuation levels for several sectors, with notable figures such as: - Planting at 75% - Chemical fiber at 94% - Internet e-commerce at 69% [2][7].

银河证券认为，在供给侧"反内卷"持续推进的背景下，钢铁行业产能持续向优质龙头集中；从需求侧 看，特钢有望受益于制造业升级和AI转型。中长期来看，普钢龙头企业有望受益于行业供需格局的改 善。 国家综合整治钢铁行业"内卷式"竞争的一系列举措，加快落地。随着钢铁产品出口许可证管理即将实 施，国内钢铁市场结构性变化会进一步加快。过去5年，随着地产退潮，建筑用钢需求下滑，而以新能 源汽车为代表的制造业需求抬升，钢铁高质量发展的新叙事已经展开。 信达证券认为，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增 长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、钢铁 出口高位等支撑下保持平稳甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下钢铁供给总量趋紧且产业集中度持续趋 强，钢铁行业供需总体形势有望维持平稳。与此同时，经济高质量发展和新质生产力宏观趋势下，特别 是受益于能源周期、国产替代、高端装备制造的高壁垒高附加值的高端钢材有望充分受益。总体上，未 来钢铁行业产业格局有望稳中趋好，叠加当前部分公司已经处于价值低估区域，现阶段仍具结构性投资 机遇，尤其是拥有较高毛利率水平的优 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of various "stabilization growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, supported by real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and continued manufacturing development [3] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply under the expectation of price control policies and increasing industry concentration [3] - The report suggests that there are structural investment opportunities in the steel sector, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale effects [3] Supply Situation - As of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The average daily pig iron output is 2.292 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 thousand tons week-on-week [26] - The total output of five major steel products is 6.957 million tons, down 3.20% week-on-week [26] Demand Situation - As of December 12, the consumption of five major steel products is 8.397 million tons, a decrease of 2.83% week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 98,000 tons, down 0.79% week-on-week [36] Inventory Situation - As of December 12, the social inventory of five major steel products is 9.417 million tons, down 3.76% week-on-week [44] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 3.904 million tons, up 0.86% week-on-week [44] Steel Prices & Profits - As of December 12, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,434.0 yuan/ton, down 1.14% week-on-week [50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 21 yuan/ton, down 38.24% week-on-week [56] - The profit for electric arc furnace steel for construction is -25 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [56] Raw Material Situation - As of December 12, the spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 785 yuan/ton, down 0.63% week-on-week [74] - The price of first-grade metallurgical coke is 1,825 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton week-on-week [74] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel [3] - It also suggests paying attention to companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring capabilities, such as Nanjing Steel and Maanshan Steel [3]

中信特钢12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量47.65万股，成交金额718.09万元，大宗交易成交 价为15.07元。该笔交易的买卖双方均为机构专用席位。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，中信特钢今日收盘价为15.07元，下跌1.57%，日换手率为0.76%，成交额为 5.79亿元，全天主力资金净流出2447.31万元，近5日该股累计下跌5.52%，近5日资金合计净流出8479.21 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为1.57亿元，近5日增加1439.40万元，增幅为10.09%。（数据宝） 12月12日中信特钢大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 47.65 | 718.09 | 15.07 | 0.00 | 机构专用 | 机构专用 | （文章来源：证券时报网） ...