钢铁ETF（515210）跌超3%，行业供需格局改善，把握回调布局机会。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的相 关上市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股涵盖普钢、特钢等主要子领域，具有 显著的周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济周期密切相关。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 银河证券指出，2025年前三季度钢铁行业效益显著改善，重点统计企业利润总额同比增长1.9倍，销售 利润率同比上升1.39个百分点至2.1%。供给端反内卷政策持续加码，《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026年）》提出实施产能产量精准调控，严禁新增产能，推动行业增加值年均增长4%。需求结 构持续优化，制造业用钢占比从2020年的42%升至2024年的50%，高端产品如硅钢产量较2020年增长 48%，其中高磁感取向硅钢占比提升至68%。普钢板块表现突出，利润总额占比达58.38%。行业供需格 局改善，粗钢产量同比下降2.9%，表观消费量下降5.7%，出口同比增长9.2%，净出口量显著上升。基 金持仓同比增加22.44%，显示市场对龙头企业的关注度提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates a shift in China's steel consumption structure from the construction industry to the manufacturing sector, suggesting a focus on undervalued, high-dividend plate stocks and high-end stainless steel pipe materials in the context of industry transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - The steel industry is expected to undergo a transformation with a focus on manufacturing, leading to stable demand for certain steel products [1] - Special steel consumption in sectors such as energy, new infrastructure, aerospace, and national defense is becoming increasingly significant [1] Group 2: Profitability Improvement Factors - Cost side: The decline in raw material prices and a more reasonable profit distribution within the industry are anticipated, with the West Mangu Iron Mine expected to start production in November 2025, leading to increased iron ore supply and a forecasted drop in iron ore prices [1] - Supply side: Policy-driven production limits and cash flow pressures on some companies are accelerating supply clearance, with a long-term focus on reducing steel production and improving industry concentration through mergers and acquisitions [1] - Demand side: Manufacturing demand remains resilient, supporting the profitability of plate and special steel sectors, while construction demand stabilizes [1]

Group 1 - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to three main factors: declining raw material prices, supply-side adjustments, and resilient demand from manufacturing [3][5][9] - The West Simandou iron ore project is set to commence production in November 2025, significantly increasing iron ore supply and contributing to a downward trend in iron ore prices [3][71] - Government policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting energy efficiency are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to a more optimized supply structure in the steel industry [3][16][10] Group 2 - Demand for steel is projected to stabilize in the construction sector, while manufacturing demand remains resilient, particularly for flat steel and special steel products [3][19][25] - The overall steel demand in China is forecasted to decline slightly, with total demand expected to be 9.05 billion tons in 2025, a decrease of 0.11% from 2024 [19][20] - The construction sector's share of steel demand is decreasing, while the manufacturing sector's share is increasing, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [3][19] Group 3 - The report highlights that the profitability of steel companies is recovering, with a stronger performance expected in flat steel compared to long steel products [3][85][82] - The average profit margin for steel companies is projected to improve as cost pressures ease, with a focus on companies with stable demand and low valuations [3][87][90] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from the shift towards manufacturing [3][95][94]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing fluctuations in production and demand, with a notable increase in capacity utilization rates, while prices and profits remain under pressure. The overall outlook suggests potential for recovery driven by government policies and market stabilization efforts. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces is 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points week-on-week [2][3] - The production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a decrease of 229,800 tons or 3.07% week-on-week [2][3] - Daily average pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week and 28,200 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, down by 63,300 tons or 0.73% week-on-week [2][3] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons or 3.87% week-on-week [2][3] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a decrease of 136,100 tons or 1.27% week-on-week, but an increase of 306,100 tons year-on-year [3] - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.16 million tons, down by 126,100 tons or 2.94% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35% [3] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47 yuan/ton or 0.07% week-on-week, but down by 6.85% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,581.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.59 yuan/ton or 0.16% week-on-week, and down by 3.37% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton or 25.64% week-on-week [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces is -155 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.0 yuan/ton or 4.32% week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port is 786 yuan/ton, up by 10.0 yuan/ton or 1.29% week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] Market Outlook - The initiation of the 2025 Central Safety Production Assessment is expected to stabilize market confidence and positively impact steel prices [5] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, supported by government "stability growth" policies, with potential improvements in demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors [6] - The industry is expected to see structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is showing signs of recovery with a slight increase in prices and production, despite facing supply-demand imbalances and overall profit declines. The report suggests that the implementation of "stability growth" policies will support demand in real estate and infrastructure, leading to a potential marginal improvement in steel demand [4][6]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply due to policy expectations and increasing industry concentration. This is anticipated to create structural investment opportunities, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [4][6]. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace utilization stands at 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points [26]. - The total production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 229,800 tons, or 3.07% [26]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 63,300 tons, or 0.73% [34]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, which is an increase of 370 tons, or 3.87% week-on-week [34]. Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 136,100 tons, or 1.27%, but an increase of 30.61% year-on-year [42]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.160 million tons, down by 126,100 tons, or 2.94% week-on-week, and up by 6.35% year-on-year [42]. Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.47 yuan/ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.85% [48]. - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel is -155 yuan/ton, up by 7 yuan/ton week-on-week [54]. Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 786 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [71]. - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,935 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 55 yuan/ton [71]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel, as well as companies with excellent growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is facing challenges with profitability due to ineffective policies on crude steel volume control, and preventing internal competition while improving prices remains a key task for the upcoming year [1][3]. Pricing - Steel prices have been on a downward trend, with future movements dependent on production cuts. The core issues include supply-demand mismatches, weakened cost support, and delayed policy effects. The market is currently in a weak balance state characterized by low inventory, low prices, low demand, and high supply elasticity. The future price trajectory will hinge on the effectiveness of production cut policies [2][3]. Supply - The government is continuing to implement crude steel production controls and promote "dual control of carbon emissions." Policies are focused on preventing new steel production capacity under various guises and promoting high-performance special steel and recycling. The effectiveness of these policies has diminished compared to 2021, leading to increased internal competition and deteriorating profitability [3][4]. Demand - The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been increasing, surpassing 50%. Traditional manufacturing is stable, while high-end manufacturing and emerging industries are growing rapidly. However, real estate sales have not shown significant recovery, and it is expected that steel consumption in the real estate sector will decline. Overall, domestic steel consumption is projected to decrease by 1.9% in 2026 [4][5]. Costs - The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, which may improve profitability per ton of steel. The global iron ore market is anticipated to be oversupplied in 2026, with a forecasted equilibrium price of $90 per ton (CFR China), down approximately 12% from 2025, leading to an estimated profit improvement of about 130 yuan per ton of steel [5][6]. Profitability - Profit recovery in the steel industry is contingent upon strict enforcement of production cuts. If production is reduced by 4 million tons, the annual crude steel output would be 945 million tons, potentially restoring gross profit margins to around 300 yuan. Conversely, if production is cut by only 2.5 million tons, the output would be 960 million tons, with profit margins likely remaining at this year's average of 0-100 yuan [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector has shown a positive performance with a 4.57% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, driven by various sub-sectors including special steel and iron ore [1][2]. Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 4.57%, with special steel up 3.89%, long products up 1.39%, and flat products up 4.20%. The iron ore sector rose by 11.38%, while steel consumables and trade circulation sectors increased by 4.99% and 4.38%, respectively [1][2]. Supply Situation - As of November 7, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate for sample steel companies was 87.8%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 50.9%, down 2.12 percentage points week-on-week. The production of five major steel products was 7.491 million tons, a decrease of 18.53 thousand tons or 2.41% week-on-week [2][3]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.669 million tons, down 49.47 thousand tons or 5.40% week-on-week. The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 96 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.79 thousand tons or 7.60% week-on-week [2][3]. Inventory Situation - As of November 7, the social inventory of five major steel products was 10.75 million tons, down 2.10 thousand tons or 0.19% week-on-week, but up 31.11% year-on-year. Factory inventory was 4.286 million tons, down 8.09 thousand tons or 1.85% week-on-week, and up 7.45% year-on-year [3][6]. Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,419.8 yuan/ton, down 37.72 yuan/ton or 1.09% week-on-week, and down 8.28% year-on-year. The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,592.5 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan/ton or 0.11% week-on-week, and down 3.62% year-on-year. The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was -39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.0 yuan/ton or 31.58% week-on-week [3][4]. Raw Material Situation - As of November 7, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton or 3.72% week-on-week. The price for main coking coal was 1,800 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton week-on-week. The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,880 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite challenges in the steel industry, including supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand. The industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with opportunities for structural investments in high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.57%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and iron ore seeing significant gains [2][10] - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][34] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-end steel products benefiting from macro trends [3] Supply Situation - As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sampled steel companies is 87.8%, down 0.80 percentage points week-on-week [24] - Electric furnace capacity utilization is at 50.9%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points week-on-week [24] - The total production of five major steel products is 749.1 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.53 million tons [24] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 866.9 million tons as of November 7, down 49.47 million tons week-on-week [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 0.79 million tons week-on-week [34] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.75 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.10 million tons [42] - Factory inventory stands at 4.286 million tons, down 8.09 million tons week-on-week [42] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,419.8 yuan/ton, down 37.72 yuan/ton week-on-week [48] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,592.5 yuan/ton, down 7.02 yuan/ton week-on-week [48] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -39 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [51] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 776 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,800 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises is -22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [66] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies with strong growth potential and those benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights significant volatility in global risk assets due to concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and discussions surrounding an "AI bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Global risk assets have experienced substantial fluctuations this week, influenced by a lack of economic data, frequent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and rising liquidity pressures in the money market due to government shutdown and fiscal constraints [1] - The strong dollar has suppressed global stock markets and commodity prices, with technology-heavy indices like Nikkei 225, Korean stock index, and Nasdaq leading the decline [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The probability of overseas liquidity tightening evolving into systemic risk is low, as solutions from the Federal Reserve and bipartisan negotiations to reopen the government are progressing, which may gradually alleviate external disturbances on risk appetite [2] - If the U.S. government shutdown ends as expected in mid-November and more economic data is released, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts will be recalibrated, potentially creating a window for global recovery [3] Group 3: AI Industry Analysis - The current discussions around the "AI bubble" have caused some disturbances in the domestic AI industry chain, but Industrial Securities believes that AI's empowerment of traditional industries is still in its early stages, making it incomparable to the internet bubble of 1999-2000 [4] - The development logic of the AI industry is clear, with major global tech companies continuously defining their AI strategies, and the fundamentals of leading companies in the U.S. stock market remain strong due to ongoing R&D investments and capital expenditures [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes AI as a key driver for national competition and technological innovation, indicating that the AI industry chain will be a focus area with favorable prospects next year [5] - The year-end market is seen as an important window for positioning in sectors expected to perform well in the coming year, with a focus on cyclical sectors such as steel, chemicals, construction materials, and new consumption [6][7] - High-growth sectors expected to see net profit growth of over 30% next year include AI hardware, new energy, and military industries, while sectors with expected growth of 10%-30% include pharmaceuticals and AI downstream applications [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a steady increase in profit and sales volume, with a significant rise in net profit for the third quarter of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for continued growth in profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88% [1]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit reached about 1.53 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 37.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.32% [1]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 15.46%, marking the highest quarterly gross margin since mid-2022 [1]. Group 2: Market Demand and Product Optimization - The demand for special steel products, particularly those that are heat-resistant and corrosion-resistant, aligns with the upgrading needs of high-end equipment manufacturing and energy sectors, indicating a broad application space [2]. - As of September 2025, domestic automobile production and sales increased by 13.23% and 12.78% year-on-year, respectively, which is expected to boost the company's sales of steel rods and wires for automotive use [2]. - The wind energy sector is projected to see sustained demand for special steel, supported by initiatives aimed at increasing installed capacity significantly by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Cost Dynamics - Recent policy changes in the steel industry, particularly regarding capacity replacement, are expected to tighten supply and promote a trend towards reduced production [3]. - As of September 2025, national crude steel production has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, which may help restore supply-demand balance and stabilize overall steel prices [3]. - The successful launch of a new iron ore project is anticipated to lower steel production costs, further enhancing the company's profit margins [3]. - The company has slightly adjusted its product sales forecasts and projects earnings per share for 2025-2027 to be 1.16, 1.22, and 1.30 yuan, respectively [3].