Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the steel industry, indicating manageable credit risk despite ongoing challenges [33]. Core Insights - In 2024, China's crude steel production is expected to decline slightly year-on-year, with weak downstream demand and an oversupply situation in the steel industry, leading to a continuous decline in overall profitability [2][5]. - The bond market for the steel industry showed stable issuance in the first half of 2025, with a decrease in short-term financing notes and an increase in general corporate bonds and medium-term notes [5][6]. - The credit ratings of steel companies remain high, with a significant proportion of issuers being central and local state-owned enterprises, indicating a low level of credit migration since the beginning of 2025 [15][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview - The steel industry is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with the real estate sector in deep adjustment and only moderate growth in demand from infrastructure and new energy sectors [5][6]. - The profitability of the steel industry continues to decline as the cost reduction of raw materials does not match the price drop of steel products [2][5]. 2. Bond Market Review for H1 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the steel industry issued 92 credit bonds totaling 1,096.20 billion yuan, maintaining a stable issuance level compared to the previous year [6]. - The majority of bond issuers are state-owned enterprises with high credit ratings, particularly AAA and AA+ [10][26]. 3. Bond Maturity and Credit Migration - The maturity of steel industry bonds in the first half of 2025 was at a historically low level, with no credit migration observed among issuing companies [15][16]. - The total amount of maturing bonds is expected to decrease significantly in the second half of 2025, reducing repayment pressure on steel companies [28][29]. 4. Risk Outlook for H2 2025 - The steel industry is projected to face ongoing operational pressures in the short term, but the reduction in maturing debt will alleviate repayment burdens [28][29]. - Long-term prospects indicate a shift towards high-quality development as inefficient capacity is gradually eliminated, improving the competitive landscape of the industry [3][28].

2024年，中国粗钢产量同比小幅下降，钢铁行业下游需求疲弱，供给端相对处于过剩态势，原燃料价格虽有下降，但成本端降幅不及钢材价格降幅，钢铁 行业整体盈利水平持续下行。受供需关系影响，铁矿石和焦炭价格均呈现波动下行态势；房地产投资持续下滑，但制造业和基建投资对用钢需求提供重要 支撑，钢铁产品结构持续调整。 2025年上半年，钢铁行业债券市场发行情况表现平稳，超短期融资券发行规模呈下降趋势，一般公司债和中期票据发行规模扩大；债券发行活跃的钢铁企 业仍以中央和地方国有企业为主，AA+及以上信用等级的融资主体占比非常高。从到期情况看，钢铁企业2025年上半年到期较历史同期相比处于较低水 平。2025年以来，发债钢铁企业无信用迁徙情况。钢铁行业存续债券信用等以AAA和AA+为主，2025年下半年钢企到期债务规模明显缩减，到期兑付压 力较小。长期看，钢铁行业景气度持续低迷，但考虑到钢铁发债企业主要为高信用等级的中央和地方国有企业，且融资渠道较为畅通，整体信用风险可 控。 在行业景气度下行阶段，钢铁企业信用分化或将加剧，需重点关注盈利能力持续恶化、债务负担重且债务结构不合理、短期流动性压力大的钢铁企业。展 望未来，短期内， ...