Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of Luoyang Molybdenum will rise in the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario [1] - The firm maintains an "overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] Group 2 - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, potential sales volume could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027 [1] - The expected cobalt supply will be significantly impacted, as the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for 70% of global supply [1]