行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 美联储降息预期反复，金属价格持续震荡 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。截至2025年11月27日，申万有色金属行业近两周下跌6.87%，跑输 沪深300指数2.90个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第28名。截至2025年11 月27日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，贵金属板块下跌2.11%，小金属板块 下跌4.65%，金属新材料板块下跌6.03%，工业金属板块下跌8.07%，能源金属 板块下跌8.20%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 | ਮ | | --- | 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 申万有色金属行业指数走势 工业金属。宏观层面，美联储12月降息预期反复，使得工业金 ...

11月28日，有色大放异彩。截至13时50分，矿业ETF(159690)涨1.46%，一度涨1.99%，成分股盛新锂 能、中矿资源、厦门钨业、兴业银锡涨幅居前。 银河证券发布研报表示：2024年行业触底企稳后，2025年中美达成日内瓦协议宏观预期的修复，美国加 征关税、中国反制措施及其他资源国矿产资源管制等政策下的供应链扰动、美联储降息周期中的流动性 宽松，使有色金属价格与行业业绩增速持续提升，确立了有色金属行业进入新一轮上行周期。2026年上 述逻辑有望继续推动有色金属商品价格上涨与提升有色金属企业的盈利能力，延续有色金属行业的景气 上行行情。 贵金属：黄金牛市有望延续。美联储继续降息与可能开启扩表，流动性边际宽松将带动全球黄金ETF基 金持续购金，推升金价。美国债务的加速增长与美联储"独立性"或将动摇使美国信用问题加剧，全 球"去美元"开始实质化启动，全球央行与全球私人投资机构或将增加黄金购买量以提升资产组合中黄金 的配置比例，将成为黄金中期上涨逻辑。 工业金属：铜矿供给叙事延续，长周期景气向上不改。铜矿生产扰动常态化对有效供给形成约束，且未 来全球铜矿新投建项目有限，而冶炼产能集中释放，矿端紧缺难以改变 ...

自然资源部近日表示，我国低品位、共伴生矿产资源大幅增长。钴、铼新增资源量超100%增幅，镍、 铟新增资源量超30%增幅，将一批"呆矿"变"活矿"、"小矿"变"大矿"，有效延长矿山服务年限。 这位负责人表示，新修订的《矿产资源法》已于今年7月起正式实施，这次矿法修订是一次整体性、系 统性、重构性的修改，对保障国家能源资源安全、促进矿业高质量发展具有重大意义。新矿法贯彻新发 展理念特别是绿色发展的要求，将推进生态文明建设贯穿矿产资源管理各环节，明确提出国家鼓励、支 持矿业绿色低碳转型发展，加强绿色矿山建设，既彰显了绿色矿 山建设对推动矿业绿色低碳转型的重 要意义，也为绿色矿山建设提供了法律依据。 据了解，自然资源部等六部门联合印发了《关于进一步加强绿色矿山建设的通知》，全面推进绿色矿山 建设。各地积极创新机制、细化要求，"政府引导、部门协作、企业主建、社会监督"的工作体系基本形 成。 自然资源部有关负责人表示，当前，我国经济社会已进入绿色化、低碳化的高质量发展阶段，未来五年 是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。推动矿产资源勘查开发利用绿色化、高效 化、低碳化是矿业领域生态文明建设、矿业全面绿色转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance, with significant increases in stock prices and ETF inflows, driven by rising demand expectations and supply constraints in key materials like lithium and cobalt [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major A-share indices opened lower but rebounded, with rare metal concept stocks experiencing substantial gains, including Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tianhua New Energy rising over 8% [1]. - The rare metals ETF (562800) has seen a substantial increase in shares, with a rise of 2.736 billion shares and a net inflow of over 2.1 billion yuan in the past six months, bringing its total scale to over 3.7 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged, previously exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton, as the supply-demand balance is expected to improve significantly next year [1]. - Following the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, cobalt prices have risen sharply, with supply constraints anticipated to maintain a tight market and bullish price expectations for the coming year [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts highlight that strategic metals have limited reserves, high extraction difficulty, and insufficient supply elasticity, while demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military applications is rapidly increasing [1]. - The ongoing scarcity of resources, coupled with an upgrade in demand structure and policy adjustments, suggests that rare metal prices are likely to continue their upward trend, benefiting companies with resource advantages, technical barriers, and compliant export channels [1].

融券方面，洛阳钼业11月27日融券偿还1.47万股，融券卖出6.99万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 111.49万元；融券余量128.57万股，融券余额2050.69万元，超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司位于河南省洛阳市栾川县城东新区画眉山路伊河以北，成立 日期1999年12月22日，上市日期2012年10月9日，公司主营业务涉及主要从事钼、钨及黄金等稀贵金属 的开采、选冶、深加工、贸易、科研等。生产所需原辅材料、机械设备、仪器仪表、零配件的进口(上 述进出口项目凭资格证书经营)。金属贸易。主营业务收入构成为：精炼金属产品贸易48.56%，精矿产 品贸易38.31%，铜27.14%，钴6.04%，钼3.12%，磷2.23%，铌1.88%，钨1.17%，其他(补充)0.11%。 11月27日，洛阳钼业跌0.19%，成交额26.86亿元。两融数据显示，当日洛阳钼业获融资买入额2.10亿 元，融资偿还2.32亿元，融资净买入-2169.29万元。截至11月27日，洛阳钼业融资融券余额合计31.91亿 元。 融资方面，洛阳钼业当日融资买入2.10亿元。当前融资余额31.7 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report from China Galaxy highlights a positive outlook for cobalt prices due to the implementation of annual export quota management in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which dominates global cobalt supply [1][2] - The report anticipates a recovery in the non-ferrous metals industry starting in 2025, driven by macroeconomic improvements and supply chain disruptions, leading to a new upward cycle in metal prices and industry performance [1][2] - The gold market is expected to continue its bullish trend, supported by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The industry is projected to stabilize in 2024, with a recovery in macroeconomic expectations following the Geneva Agreement between the US and China, leading to improved performance in 2025 [1][2] - The combination of US tariffs, China's countermeasures, and resource control policies from other countries will continue to disrupt supply chains, contributing to rising prices and profitability in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2] Precious Metals - The report suggests that the gold bull market is likely to persist, driven by continued liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and increasing purchases of gold by global central banks and private investors [1][2] - The acceleration of US debt growth and potential challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence may exacerbate credit issues, prompting a shift towards gold in asset allocation [1][2] Industrial Metals - The narrative surrounding copper supply remains positive, with ongoing production disruptions and limited new projects expected to maintain upward pressure on copper prices [2][3] - Demand for copper is expected to benefit from macroeconomic improvements and structural demand from sectors like renewable energy and data centers [2][3] Energy Metals - The DRC's new export quota management is anticipated to create upward price elasticity for cobalt, as global supply shortages become more apparent [2][3] - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow due to the high-end electric vehicle market and increased military and strategic reserve needs [2][3] Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earth metals is increasing, with stable long-term demand and new applications emerging in robotics and low-altitude economies [3] - Domestic supply controls are expected to enhance the global monopoly position of China's rare earth industry, leading to improved profitability for rare earth enterprises [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Northern Rare Earth, based on the anticipated upward trends in gold, copper, cobalt, and rare earth prices [3]

人民财讯11月28日电，银河证券有色行业2026年度策略报告称，2024年行业触底企稳后，2025年中美达 成日内瓦协议宏观预期的修复，美国加征关税、中国反制措施及其他资源国矿产资源管制等政策下的供 应链扰动、美联储降息周期中的流动性宽松，使有色金属价格与行业业绩增速持续提升，确立了有色金 属行业进入新一轮上行周期。2026年上述逻辑有望继续推动有色金属商品价格上涨与提升有色金属企业 的盈利能力，延续有色金属行业的景气上行行情。投资建议：1.美联储继续降息推动全球黄金ETF基金 购金，美国债务信用问题加剧将使全球央行与投资者提升黄金在资产组合中的配置比例，利于金价中期 上涨；2.铜矿紧缺无法缓解，中美贸易摩擦缓和下宏观预期改善、美联储降息流动性充裕、与AI数据中 心大规模建设带来新需求增量，铜价有望持续上涨；3.刚果(金)施行出口配额政策限制全球钴资源供 应，国内钴库存消耗殆尽面临实质性，钴价上涨弹性释放；4.国内政策收紧供应与出口改变行业格局， 需求稳步增长，稀土价格企稳回升，企业盈利能力大幅改善，反制措施提升战略地位与行业估值的稀土 永磁板块。 ...

智通财经APP讯，金川国际(02362)发布公告，于截至2025年9月30日止9个月，本集团的采矿业务生产铜 44,024吨(于电解铜及铜精矿的铜含量)，较2024年同期的47,183吨同比减少约67%。该减少乃因刚果民主 共和国(刚果(金))国家电网供至Ruashi矿场的电力供应不稳定，故于2025年1月暂时停止溶剂萃取-电解冶 鍊法系统(SX-EW系统)。因此，电解铜产量下跌，而本集团则利用浮选工厂生产更多铜含量的铜精矿， 进而维持整体产量水平。为解决电力供应问题，本集团已积极加装额外柴油发电机，且SX-EW系统于 2025年5月中旬恢复运作。 由于暂时停止SX-EW系统，本集团于本期间生产钴71吨(于氢氧化钴的钴含量)，较截至2024年同期的 735吨同比减少约90.3%。 于本期间，本集团的采矿业务出售铜41,971吨(于直运矿石、电解铜及铜精矿的铜含量)，较截至2024年 同期的41,368吨同比微增1.5%。 由于钴的低产量，且自2025年2月起实施出口禁令，于本期间，本集团并无出售任何钴，而2024年同期 出售钴1,318吨。 本集团的Musonoi项目近期开始投产，成为于刚果(金)的第三座营运 ...

由于钴的低产量，且自2025年2月起实施出口禁令，于本期间，本集团并无出售任何钴，而2024年同期 出售钴1,318吨。 本集团的Musonoi项目近期开始投产，成为于刚果(金)的第三座营运矿场。根据2023年报所载的于2023 年12月31日的资源与储量报表，Musonoi项目拥有606,000吨铜储量，174,000吨钴储量。其矿产规模已 超过现有Ruashi和Kinsenda两座在产矿场的总和。 此外，公司股份继续停牌。 金川国际(02362)发布公告，于截至2025年9月30日止9个月，本集团的采矿业务生产铜44,024吨(于电解 铜及铜精矿的铜含量)，较2024年同期的47,183吨同比减少约67%。该减少乃因刚果民主共和国(刚果 (金))国家电网供至Ruashi矿场的电力供应不稳定，故于2025年1月暂时停止溶剂萃取-电解冶鍊法系统 (SX-EW系统)。因此，电解铜产量下跌，而本集团则利用浮选工厂生产更多铜含量的铜精矿，进而维持 整体产量水平。为解决电力供应问题，本集团已积极加装额外柴油发电机，且SX-EW系统于2025年5月 中旬恢复运作。 由于暂时停止SX-EW系统，本集团于本期间生产钴71吨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to stabilize after hitting bottom in 2024, with a new upward cycle anticipated in 2025 due to macroeconomic improvements, supply chain disruptions, and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The bull market for gold is likely to continue, driven by the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts and potential balance sheet expansion, which will increase global gold ETF purchases and push up gold prices [1] - The acceleration of U.S. debt growth and potential challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence may exacerbate U.S. credit issues, prompting global central banks and private investors to increase gold holdings [1] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The narrative around copper supply constraints continues, with limited new copper mining projects and concentrated smelting capacity, leading to persistent supply tightness [2] - Demand for copper is expected to improve due to reduced pressure from traditional sectors and structural demand growth from the energy transition and data centers, resulting in a favorable supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a key supplier of cobalt, is implementing annual export quotas, which will create a supply gap as new projects in Indonesia cannot fully compensate [3] - The demand for cobalt is anticipated to rise due to the high-end electric vehicle market and recovery in consumer electronics, with a widening supply-demand gap expected by 2025-2026 [3] Group 4: Rare Metals - The strategic value of rare earths is increasing, with stable long-term demand from traditional sectors and emerging needs from robotics and low-altitude economies [4] - Domestic supply controls are tightening, enhancing industry concentration and strengthening the global monopoly position of China's rare earth industry, leading to a steady increase in rare earth prices [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold prices are expected to rise due to increased purchases by global central banks and investors, with a recommendation for China National Gold Group (600489) [4] - Copper prices are projected to continue rising due to supply constraints and new demand from AI data centers, recommending Zijin Mining (601899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) [4] - Cobalt prices are set to increase due to supply restrictions from the DRC, recommending Huayou Cobalt (603799) [4] - Rare earth prices are expected to stabilize and improve profitability for companies in the sector, recommending Northern Rare Earth (600111) [4]