再推【钼】：海外军备或大幅扩张，22 年行情有望复现 20260112 摘要 钼价受供需关系影响显著，近期虽因南美进口矿超预期增加及钢厂盈利 走弱而下跌，但 11 月出口恢复理性，库存仍处低位，价格已回升至 4,200 元/吨。 2026 年前 11 个月，国内钼产量小幅增长，进口量大幅增加 93%，表 观消费增长 6%，需求旺盛与钢招量增长一致，验证了去库逻辑，支撑 钼均价持续上涨。 高端不锈钢是钼需求的主要构成，占比 50%，其次是品种钢和军用特钢。 油气领域资本开支减少对高端不锈钢消费有影响，但整体钢产量仍增长， 品种钢和军用特钢订单旺盛。 全球钼供应增速预计在 26-27 年较低（2-3%），而需求增速更强（4- 5%），叠加当前低库存，未来两到三年内钼价具备较强的上涨确定性。 钨与钼在军用领域存在替代或孪生关系，钨价创新高后，部分需求可能 转向成本相对较低的钼。美国国防开支增加也将拉动对钼的需求。 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点推荐木板块？ 目前木价已经回到了应有的位置，且美国总统特朗普宣布 2027 年国防开支将 达到 1.5 万亿美元，这一消息预示着海外军费预期大幅提升。钼本身的供需缺 口在 202 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Molybdenum Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the molybdenum industry, discussing price trends, supply-demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in related companies such as Jinchuan Group and Guocheng Mining [1][18]. Key Points and Arguments Molybdenum Price Trends - Molybdenum prices have recently increased from 32,000 RMB per ton in early April 2025 to over 38,000 RMB per ton, marking an approximate 20% rise [2][16]. - The price drop earlier in 2025 was attributed to inventory accumulation and increased production guidance from companies like Antofagasta and Freeport, leading to a supply expectation adjustment [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global molybdenum supply is expected to rise from 278,000 tons in 2024 to 290,000 tons in 2025, with a demand increase from 320,000 tons to 330,000 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of about 40,000 tons [3][13]. - Current inventory levels are at historical lows, down over 30% year-on-year, indicating no large-scale accumulation, which supports future price increases [1][5][6]. Steel Industry Impact - The steel industry accounts for 85%-90% of molybdenum demand, with steel mill procurement increasing by approximately 6% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025 [8][9]. - Special steel and military sectors have shown strong performance, with growth rates exceeding 20%-30%, while stainless steel production has declined by about 30% [9][12]. Special Applications and Future Demand - The wind power and shipbuilding industries are contributing approximately 2% to molybdenum demand growth, with structural steel usage adding another 1-2% [10][11]. - Military demand for molybdenum is expected to rise due to increased stockpiling, especially during significant conflicts [12][14]. Price Forecast and Investment Opportunities - Molybdenum prices are projected to reach 45,000 RMB to 50,000 RMB per ton in 2025, driven by improved steel mill profitability and ongoing supply constraints [3][16]. - Companies like Jinchuan Group and Guocheng Mining are expected to see significant stock price increases, with potential growth of over 50% if market conditions remain favorable [18][20]. Conclusion - The molybdenum market is characterized by tight supply conditions, strong demand from the steel and military sectors, and favorable pricing trends, making it an attractive area for investment in related companies [1][19].