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亚钾国际(000893):25H1钾肥量价齐升,静待新产能放量
Huaan Securities· 2025-09-03 02:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 216.64% [6] - The company's potassium chloride revenue reached 2.460 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 58.20%, reflecting a significant enhancement in profitability [8] - The potassium fertilizer supply-demand situation remains tight, with expectations for continued industry prosperity due to limited domestic production capacity and increasing import reliance [10][11] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.00%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 149.17% [7] - The average price of potassium chloride in the first half of 2025 was 2,943.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.56% compared to the same period last year [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.58 billion, 2.14 billion, and 2.95 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20, 14, and 10 times respectively [12] Industry Outlook - The domestic potassium chloride price as of August 29, 2025, was 3,275 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30.17% increase since the beginning of the year [9] - China's potassium fertilizer consumption reached 9.7711 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, while production fell by 17.10% [10] - The company plans to expand its production capacity with ongoing projects, aiming to enhance its market position in the potassium fertilizer industry [9]