盈利预测与投资评级：预计公司2025、2026 年EPS 为2.06元和3.02 元，以8 月27 日收盘价33.06 元计 算，PE 分别为16.03 倍和10.95 倍。考虑到公司的行业地位和发展前景，维持公司 "增持"的投资评级。 受钾肥价格上涨的影响，公司盈利能力大幅提升，推动了上半年业绩的增长。上半年综合毛利率 57.50%，同比提升8.44 个百分点。其中钾肥业务毛利率58.20%，同比提升10.31 个百分点。净利率 33.82%，同比提升18.83 个百分点。 税收方面，根据公司公告，2024 至2028 年亚钾老挝公司的企业所得税率由35%下调至20%，出口关税 税率由7%下降至1.5%。在钾肥业务量价齐升、盈利提升以及税收优惠等因素推动下，上半年公司实现 净利润8.55 亿元，同比增长216.64%，扣非后的净利润8.56 亿元，同比增长219.48%。 钾肥价格景气有望延续，保障全年业绩增长。2024 年二季度以来，钾肥价格逐步回暖。截至2025 年8 月28 日，国内氯化钾市场价为3260 元/吨，2025 年以来涨幅27.18%，较2024 年3 月低点上涨50.58%。 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yara International, reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by a favorable market for potassium fertilizers and stable production and sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and a net profit of 856 million yuan, up 219.48% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.309 billion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 7.99% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 472 million yuan, reflecting a 152.08% year-on-year increase and a 23% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. Industry Outlook - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a small boom, with the average price of potassium chloride in H1 2025 at 2,943.20 yuan/ton, a 20.44% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average price of potassium chloride in Q2 2025 rebounded to 3,276 yuan/ton, a 30.21% increase from the year's low [2]. - The import volume of potassium chloride in H1 2025 was 6.28 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [2]. Shareholder Structure - The company underwent a change in its major shareholder, with Huineng Group becoming the largest shareholder after acquiring 5% of the shares from China Agricultural Production Materials Group [3]. Resource and Cost Management - The company holds potassium salt mining rights in Laos, with a resource reserve exceeding 1 billion tons of pure potassium chloride [4]. - A tax rate reduction from 35% to 20% for corporate income tax and from 7% to 1.5% for export duties is expected to lower overall costs from 2024 to 2028 [4]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company has a current production capacity of 3 million tons/year for potassium chloride, with ongoing projects to expand capacity further [4]. - The second and third 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer projects are in the later stages of construction, with significant progress reported [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.558 billion, 9.490 billion, and 12.232 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.930 billion, 3.475 billion, and 4.212 billion yuan [5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the potassium salt sector, with a favorable growth outlook supported by new capacity additions [5].