Core Viewpoint - The Chinese potassium fertilizer import negotiation group has reached an agreement with a Dubai-based company on the 2025 annual import contract price, set at $346 per ton CFR, which reflects a significant increase from last year's price of $273 per ton CFR [1][2]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The agreed contract price of $346 per ton CFR is $73 higher than last year's price and is $3 lower than the recent contract price signed by India [1]. - The current market price for potassium fertilizer in China is significantly higher than the agreed contract price, with domestic prices for 60% potassium chloride ranging from 3200 to 3250 yuan per ton [1]. - Recent trends show a general decline in potassium chloride prices in China, with a decrease of 50 yuan per ton this week [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The negotiation group, consisting of companies like Sinochem and China National Agricultural Development Group, has been active since 2005, with the highest historical price recorded in 2022 at $590 per ton [2]. - China is a major importer of potassium fertilizer, with a projected increase in import volume for 2024, reaching 1263 million tons, up from 1157 million tons in 2023 [2]. - In contrast, India is entirely reliant on imports for its potassium fertilizer needs, having imported 3 million tons last year [2]. Group 3: Import Statistics - According to Chinese customs data, the total import volume of potassium fertilizer in April 2025 is approximately 1.22 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% for potassium chloride [2]. - The import of sulfate potassium has also seen a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth of 211.1% [2].

Group 1 - The price for India's potash fertilizer import contract has been set at $349 per ton, marking a $70 increase from the previous year, which is a 25% rise [1] - The contract was signed between Russian potash company BPC and Indian fertilizer importer IPL, with a total volume of 650,000 tons to be delivered by December 2025 [1] - The price aligns with market expectations, as industry insiders had anticipated a price around $350 per ton [1] Group 2 - India is the world's fourth-largest importer of potash fertilizer, with imports of 3.25 million tons in 2021 and an estimated 3 million tons in 2023 [2] - The domestic price of potash in China has seen significant increases, with local 60% potash prices ranging from 3,200 to 3,250 yuan per ton [2] - Recent production cuts from Belarus and Russia, which account for 39% of global potash exports, have intensified supply-demand tensions in the market [2]