Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the first half of the year, global iron ore shipments decreased by 0.96% year-on-year. Australian and Brazilian shipments were affected by weather in Q1 and increased in Q2. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments decreased significantly year-on-year, and non-mainstream shipments were more affected by ore prices compared to mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil [2]. - It is expected that the output and shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto and Vale's output/shipments in the first half of the year did not reach half of their guidance targets, while FMG and BHP raised their guidance targets for fiscal year 2026 [2]. - The main contradiction in the black sector lies in the terminal demand for steel, which depends on policy support. The bargaining power of imported iron ore is relatively strong. It is expected that the downside space for iron ore in the second half of the year is limited, and the upside space depends on the trend of steel prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron ore shipments in the first half of the year - In H1 2025, the cumulative global iron ore shipments were 778 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.96%. Affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil in Q1, the cumulative shipments were 362 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.39%. In Q2, shipments increased to make up for the previous shortfall and due to the end - of - quarter rush by Australian mines [3]. - From the source of shipments, the total shipments from Australia and Brazil in H1 were 648 million tons, accounting for 83% of global shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 0.84%. Non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments were only 130 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09%. Iron ore prices have a greater impact on non-Australian and non-Brazilian shipments, and Australian and Brazilian shipments show obvious seasonal patterns [5]. 2. Expected increase in shipments of the four major mines in the second half of the year 2.1 Supply summary in the first half of the year - According to SteelHome data, the cumulative shipments of the four major mines in H1 2025 were 529 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.29%. Structurally, Rio Tinto and BHP's shipments decreased, FMG's shipments increased significantly, and Vale's shipments increased steadily [6]. - Rio Tinto's 2025 production guidance target remained unchanged. Affected by cyclones and capacity replacement in Q1, its H1 shipments decreased by 5% year-on-year. The Pilbara mine achieved its highest Q2 output since 2018, and the first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was advanced to around November 2025. The品位 of PB mixed ore decreased [8][11]. - FMG's Q2 output and shipments increased significantly quarter-on-quarter. In fiscal year 2025, it shipped 198 million tons of iron ore, a year-on-year increase of 4%, achieving its fiscal year target. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 5 million tons to 195 - 205 million tons [12][13]. - BHP's Q2 2025 output was 77 million tons, and its fiscal year 2025 output was 290 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%. It raised its 2026 fiscal year guidance target by 2 million tons. It increased shipments in Q2 by optimizing operations [14][15]. - Vale's Q2 output was 83.6 million tons, a significant increase, mainly due to the strong performance of the Southeast and Northern systems. It adjusted its 2025 iron ore pellet target output downwards by 7 million tons due to weak demand [16][18]. 2.2 Supply outlook in the second half of the year - It is expected that the iron ore shipments of the four major mines will increase in the second half of the year. Rio Tinto is expected to speed up production and shipments, with the Xipo and Simandou projects as key sources of growth. FMG is expected to have some room for shipment growth. BHP's output and shipments are expected to remain sufficient. Vale's production is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year [19]. 3. Fundamental analysis 3.1 Domestic ore supply - In H1 2025, China's raw iron ore output was about 509 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. The cumulative output of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 138 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%. Domestically sourced iron accounted for about 19.0% of the total supply [20]. 3.2 Demand - More than half of the steel mills were profitable in H1. The total profit of规上 steel enterprises in H1 was 46.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7 times. However, the revenue of the steel industry decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative crude steel output was 515 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%. Steel mills' profits came from cost reduction. High steel mill profits supported high pig iron production and thus iron ore demand [21]. 3.3 Inventory - In H1, the inventory pressure on steel mills and ports was small. Steel mills' inventory was below 100 million tons after the Spring Festival, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was around 30. The inventory of imported iron ore decreased by about 3 million tons year-on-year. The inventory at 47 ports decreased from about 156 million tons at the beginning of the year to 144 million tons by July, 14 million tons lower than last year [24][26]. 4. Future outlook - In Q1, iron ore prices were relatively firm. In Q2, coking coal prices rebounded, but iron ore price increases were limited. In July, affected by policy expectations, funds flowed into coking coal. The main contradiction in the black sector lies in steel terminal demand, which depends on policy support. In the second half of the year, iron ore supply is expected to be strong, demand depends on policies, and inventory pressure is not large. The downside space for iron ore is limited, and the upside space depends on steel prices [27][30].