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基于织布机和铂金视角:如何看待玻纤电子布的提价弹性及持续性
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-27 08:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the fiberglass industry [13]. Core Insights - The fiberglass industry is currently at a relative bottom of the cycle, with price elasticity for 2026 projected as follows: AI specialty electronic cloth > ordinary electronic cloth > ordinary coarse yarn. The report is optimistic about the performance elasticity brought by price increases in electronic cloth [3][46]. - The demand for AI specialty electronic cloth remains high, driven by the AI boom, leading to a tight supply situation and price increases. The Low CTE and Low-Dk second-generation cloths are expected to face even larger supply gaps [8][20]. - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to continue to see price increases due to capacity constraints in weaving machines, with a supply gap anticipated to persist into 2026 and widen in 2027 [10][43]. Summary by Sections AI Electronic Cloth - The demand for Low CTE electronic cloth is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 6.7 million meters in 2025, 18 million meters in 2026, and 33.6 million meters in 2027, driven by AI computing chip packaging and high-end consumer electronics [32]. - The report highlights that the Low CTE electronic cloth is critical for advanced packaging in AI applications, with current supply being scarce and domestic companies beginning to fill the gap [8][36]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for the application of quartz cloth and the second-generation Low-Dk cloth, with demand expected to exceed 50 million meters [26]. Ordinary Electronic Cloth - Ordinary electronic cloth prices are expected to rise due to a recovery in demand and limited new capacity, with prices increasing from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m by January 2026 [10][38]. - The supply of weaving machines is a critical constraint, with a projected gap in machine availability starting in 2025 and expected to widen in subsequent years [10][50]. - The report notes that the price of ordinary electronic cloth is likely to continue its upward trend due to these supply constraints [10][46]. Platinum Price Impact - The significant increase in platinum prices, from 230 CNY/g in January 2025 to 672 CNY/g in January 2026, is expected to raise investment costs in the fiberglass sector by over 40%, potentially constraining supply [11][36]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs associated with platinum will particularly impact smaller electronic cloth manufacturers [11].