宏和科技 20260302 摘要 普通电子布价格持续修复，预计 2026 年全年仍处于上行趋势。2024 年全年均价 3.74 元，2025 年一季度至三季度分别为 4.5 元、4.8 元、 4.97 元，预计全年超过 5 元。2026 年受高性能电子布需求拉动，普通 布供给收缩，价格有望回升至历史高点。 高性能电子布价格坚挺并上调，AI 需求强劲支撑。一代产品价格维持 25 元/米，CT/C1 产品 2026 年已提价约 20%，价格区间为 80~240 元/米。二代产品 2026 年随订单导入，价格存在上行可能。公司不倾向 主动提价，但若终端客户愿支付更高价格以优先交付，则可能接单。 CT/C1 产品结构中，厚布与薄布占比相对较高，超薄极薄布占比逐步提 升。AI 服务器应用主要聚焦 50~100 微米规格，消费电子载板应用则以 35 微米以下规格为主。2026 年涨价后综合均价水平大致在 100 元左右。 公司拥有 1,000 多台织布机，高性能电子布扩量不会挤压普通产品。通 过优化产品结构，减少低毛利品类供应，增加超薄极薄布供给，以匹配 当前订单机会。与丰田存在战略合作，预计设备采购速度相对同行更快。 ...

但逻辑没有发生任何变化，电子纱供给偏紧+织布环节硬缺口， 普通电子布涨价逻辑硬、真实涨价正在发生，硬约束在，空间就在。 【中泰建材】普通电子布：涨价逻辑硬，回调是机会 今日电子布板块调整，主要随NV链普调。 电子布现已进入月度调价节奏，#3月初或再次提价。 主流企业26年销量：#中国巨石 （11-12亿米）、 （折布4-5亿米）、 （折布6亿米）。 业绩 【中泰建材】普通电子布：涨价逻辑硬，回调是机会 今日电子布板块调整，主要随NV链普调。 但逻辑没有发生任何变化，电子纱供给偏紧+织布环节硬缺口， 普通电子布涨价逻辑硬、真实涨价正在发生，硬约束在，空间就在。 电子布现已进入月度调价节奏，#3月初或再次提价。 主流企业26年销量：#中国巨石 （11-12亿米）、 （折布4-5亿米）、 （折布6亿米）。 业绩可算、估值可锚，跌下来反而是性价比。 #我们前期测算了各家电子布企业业绩弹性，欢迎详聊。 ...

会议助理: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 孙颖 中泰证券分析师: 好的。那个各位投资者大家晚上好那个我和我的团队的这个同事，然后一起来给大家，就 是再拆一下，细化的拆一下，就是各个公司的这个模型，那个这个网络参会的可以看到我 们那个列磊投的这个 PPT 然后我这边。列磊，我们先把 PPT 翻到那个巨石的那个拆分那 一页。在讲各家公司的这个具体的业绩拆分之前，我先做一下这个简单的这个说明。就是 为了让大家更清楚去看到各个产品，然后以及后续的这个价格的这个变化，然后包括盈利 的这个贡献，我们把就是所有跟这个玻纤相关的东西，我们分成三类。 一类就是传统的玻纤粗纱，这个粗纱它的需求，就是我们是把就是跟电子相关的，不管是 普通的这个消费电子、汽车电子，还是跟 AI 相关的，我们全部都踢到、踢掉。那它就是 普通的这个粗纱，普通的这个粗纱的这个需求正常来讲是跟全球，GDP 的这个 1.5 倍，基 本上是全球 GDP 的这个 1.5~2 倍。然后是跟经济相关的，当然它的这个成长性会更强， 因为它跟国内地产的敞口大概只有 15%，然后跟海外大概这个地产的场口大概是 15%， 然后剩下来的就是包括像这个风电。 然后包 ...

Group 1 - The supply of fiberglass is tightening further, with manufacturers expected to initiate a second round of price increases of 10% to 15% due to rising costs and ongoing supply constraints [1] - Since 2025, the cumulative annual increase in fiberglass prices has exceeded 50%, indicating that the upcoming price hike is on top of previous significant increases [1] - The price increase signals have been prevalent since the beginning of the year, with multiple price hikes for ordinary electronic cloth recorded in late 2025 and early 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nitto Denko dominates over 90% of the low thermal expansion electronic cloth supply globally, and due to quality considerations, it cannot rapidly expand production, with new capacity expected to come online only in 2027 [2] - Some manufacturers are shifting their production focus from traditional E-glass to low dielectric glass cloth, exacerbating the supply gap for ordinary fiberglass cloth [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][12]. Core Insights - Domestic cement prices are expected to show a trend of high prices followed by a decline, with an average price of 372.8 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 12.6 RMB/ton year-on-year. Cement production is projected to decline by 7.2% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability anticipated in 2026 due to supply-side improvements [4]. - The glass sector continues to face pressure, with the average price of flat glass expected to drop to 1323.3 RMB/ton in 2025, a significant decrease of 383.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. The industry is entering a period of accelerated cold repairs, which may enhance profitability in the future [4]. - The fiberglass yarn market remains relatively stable, with an expected average price of 3866 RMB/ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 174 RMB/ton. The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is anticipated to grow rapidly, contributing positively to the sector's performance [4]. - Consumer building materials are expected to show strong performance, with companies like Sanke Tree and Han Gao Group maintaining excellent revenue and profit due to strong channel development and brand advantages [4]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The average cement price in 2025 is projected at 372.8 RMB/ton, down 12.6 RMB/ton from the previous year. The first quarter's average price is expected to be 400.8 RMB/ton, declining to 358.0 RMB/ton by the fourth quarter. Cement production is expected to decrease by 7.2% in 2025, with a recovery in profitability anticipated in 2026 due to supply-side improvements [4]. Glass Industry - The average price of flat glass is expected to be 1323.3 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 383.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. The industry is entering a cold repair cycle, with daily melting capacity dropping below 150,000 tons. This may lead to improved profitability in the future [4]. Fiberglass Sector - The average price of fiberglass yarn is projected to be 3866 RMB/ton in 2025, an increase of 174 RMB/ton year-on-year. The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is expected to accelerate, contributing positively to the sector's performance [4]. Consumer Building Materials - Companies such as Sanke Tree and Han Gao Group are expected to perform strongly due to their robust channel development and brand advantages. Other companies in the sector are also expected to maintain good operational quality, with potential for significant performance recovery in 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving quarterly reports and those benefiting from supply-side adjustments. Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Shares in the cement sector, as well as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology in the fiberglass sector. In consumer building materials, companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Kezhong Shares are highlighted for their strong performance [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the price of ordinary electronic cloth has exceeded expectations, with significant price increases observed in recent months, suggesting a sustained high demand in the market [12][13] - Shanghai's initiative to purchase second-hand homes for rental purposes is expected to boost the supply of rental housing and stimulate the construction materials market [13][14] - The construction materials industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with potential for recovery as demand stabilizes and supply-side improvements take effect [23][25] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of ordinary electronic cloth has seen cumulative increases of 1-1.2 RMB/m due to supply-demand imbalances and rising copper prices, indicating a long-term bullish trend [12] - The Shanghai government has launched a program to acquire second-hand homes for rental purposes, focusing on small-sized units, which is anticipated to enhance the supply of rental properties and invigorate the construction materials sector [13] - Recent data shows a recovery in second-hand home transactions, with significant year-on-year increases, suggesting a potential rebound in the real estate market [14][15] Group 2: Industry Fundamentals and Company Performance - The construction materials sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with various sub-sectors like cement and fiberglass showing signs of recovery, supported by supply-side adjustments and improved market conditions [23][25] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials segment are demonstrating resilience, with improved revenue growth rates compared to the overall market, indicating strong operational capabilities [29] - Cement prices have recently decreased by 1%, but the overall market is expected to stabilize as companies implement price control measures and benefit from lower coal costs [25][26] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as Three Trees, Rabbit Baby, and Oriental Yuhong, which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market recovery [23][25] - In the cement industry, companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and historical performance [25][26] - The fiberglass sector is also noted for its growth potential, with leading firms like China Jushi and Zhongtai Technology expected to capitalize on increasing demand for high-end electronic cloth [26][28]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: Electronic Fabrics - The electronic fabric industry is experiencing dual prosperity with both AI electronic fabrics and conventional electronic fabrics showing positive changes recently [1] - A supply gap for conventional electronic fabrics is expected to begin in the second half of 2025, which will widen in 2026-2027, leading to anticipated price increases [1] - Low CTE electronic fabrics are also seeing price increases due to supply shortages, with a 20% price hike by domestic leaders in January, and further increases are expected [1] Key Companies and Market Valuation International Composite Materials - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the prosperity of second-generation fabrics and the certification of Low CTE electronic fabrics [1] - Target market valuation for 2026 is projected at 460 billion yuan, calculated as follows: 160 billion from main business + 200 billion from Low Dk + 100 billion from Low CTE [1] China Jushi - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous price increases in conventional electronic fabrics [1] - Target market valuation is projected at 1,150 billion yuan, derived from 1,000 billion from main business + 150 billion from AI business [1] China National Materials Technology - Target market valuation for 2026 is projected at 850 billion yuan, calculated as 400 billion from main business + 450 billion from AI business [2] - If considering 2027, with orthogonal backplane confirmation, the target valuation could reach 1,000 billion yuan, calculated as 400 billion from main business + 30 billion from AI business multiplied by 20 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the fiberglass industry [13]. Core Insights - The fiberglass industry is currently at a relative bottom of the cycle, with price elasticity for 2026 projected as follows: AI specialty electronic cloth > ordinary electronic cloth > ordinary coarse yarn. The report is optimistic about the performance elasticity brought by price increases in electronic cloth [3][46]. - The demand for AI specialty electronic cloth remains high, driven by the AI boom, leading to a tight supply situation and price increases. The Low CTE and Low-Dk second-generation cloths are expected to face even larger supply gaps [8][20]. - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to continue to see price increases due to capacity constraints in weaving machines, with a supply gap anticipated to persist into 2026 and widen in 2027 [10][43]. Summary by Sections AI Electronic Cloth - The demand for Low CTE electronic cloth is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 6.7 million meters in 2025, 18 million meters in 2026, and 33.6 million meters in 2027, driven by AI computing chip packaging and high-end consumer electronics [32]. - The report highlights that the Low CTE electronic cloth is critical for advanced packaging in AI applications, with current supply being scarce and domestic companies beginning to fill the gap [8][36]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for the application of quartz cloth and the second-generation Low-Dk cloth, with demand expected to exceed 50 million meters [26]. Ordinary Electronic Cloth - Ordinary electronic cloth prices are expected to rise due to a recovery in demand and limited new capacity, with prices increasing from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m by January 2026 [10][38]. - The supply of weaving machines is a critical constraint, with a projected gap in machine availability starting in 2025 and expected to widen in subsequent years [10][50]. - The report notes that the price of ordinary electronic cloth is likely to continue its upward trend due to these supply constraints [10][46]. Platinum Price Impact - The significant increase in platinum prices, from 230 CNY/g in January 2025 to 672 CNY/g in January 2026, is expected to raise investment costs in the fiberglass sector by over 40%, potentially constraining supply [11][36]. - The report emphasizes that the rising costs associated with platinum will particularly impact smaller electronic cloth manufacturers [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview Coatings and Waterproofing Materials - There are opportunities for price increases in the coatings and waterproofing materials sectors, with coatings showing signs of growth in 2025 and waterproofing expected to follow in 2026. Key companies to focus on include Yuhong, Keshun, and Sankeshu [1][2] Pipe Manufacturing - Companies targeting the C-end market are performing steadily with good cash flow and dividends, making them suitable for conservative investors. Recommended companies include Tubao and Weixing [1][2] Glass Fiber Sector - The demand outlook for the glass fiber sector is positive, with significant price increases in ordinary electronic cloth since the beginning of the year. China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology have considerable growth potential in the high-end electronic cloth market [1][2] Construction Sector - Large companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Tunnel Co. and China State Construction, are worth attention. A recovery in traditional construction demand will benefit upstream material suppliers like Honglu Steel Structure and Jinggong Steel Structure [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently at a high PB valuation, around the 75th percentile over the last 20 years, but still has upward potential based on PE valuation at approximately the 35th percentile. Gold stocks are valued at 12-13 times earnings, with a potential increase of 50%-70% during a bull market. Energy metals like copper and aluminum also show around 40% upside potential. The gold sector has risen 30% since the beginning of the year and is in the middle of a quarterly uptrend [3][4] Coal Industry Current Fundamentals - The coking coal sector shows strong fundamentals, with a recent increase in the coal index by 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Supply-side data is low, with significant inventory reductions. As of January 23, coal inventory was 168 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year, with coking coal inventory down 12% [5][6] Future Expectations - The coal sector is expected to see significant price increases following policy changes that will affect inventory and production levels. High-quality coking coal companies and high-dividend thermal coal companies are recommended for investment [6] Real Estate Sector Market Trends - The real estate sector is nearing the end of its bottoming phase, with recommendations to accumulate stocks that have improved fundamentals but have not yet realized performance. Jianfa Co. is highlighted, with expected losses of 5.2 to 10 billion yuan in 2025 but a commitment to maintain dividends of at least 0.7 yuan per share [7][8] Company Performance - Jianfa Co. has a stable supply chain business with significant growth in overseas operations, achieving sales of 14 billion USD, a 37% year-on-year increase. Major losses are attributed to its home furnishing business and real estate operations [9][10] Future Performance Expectations - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for Jianfa Co., with a projected rebound in 2026, estimating profits between 3 to 3.5 billion yuan. The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend strategy, supported by strong cash flow [11]

Summary of Conference Call for International Composite Materials Industry Overview - The second-generation fabric supply is tight, with only a few companies like International Composite Materials able to break through bottlenecks, leading to expected price increases depending on future order volumes [2][4] - Ordinary electronic fabric is experiencing increased demand from downstream sectors, particularly for ultra-fine yarn and ultra-thin fabric, with equipment shortages causing price hikes in the coming months [2][5] - The demand for lightweight fabrics is rising, prompting companies to adjust production to meet this trend [9] Company Insights - International Composite Materials has recently launched a new project with a capacity of 85,000 tons, focusing on the 7,628 product line, primarily using G75 yarn to replace outdated production lines, although the new line is not fully operational due to a yarn shortage [2][7] - The company has ordered over 5 million Toyota weaving machines, with deliveries starting in June 2026 and an expected 400 machines delivered by the end of the year [3][14] - The company has performed excellently in the LDK electronic fabric sector, with significant initial improvements in the second-generation fabric, and plans to adjust operational strategies based on market conditions [12] Equipment and Production Capacity - Toyota weaving machines are preferred for electronic fabric production due to their stability, especially for thin fabric, which has higher value and stability requirements [6] - The production capacity of Toyota is relatively stable, with recent increases in equipment production being a temporary phenomenon [11] - The transition to finer yarn and lighter fabrics will increase the consumption of weaving machines [10] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for AI electronic fabric has significantly increased since Q4 2025, with expectations for this trend to continue into 2026, although supply remains tight [4] - Companies in the industry, such as Jushi and Jiantao, have new project launches planned for 2026, with Jiantao expected to start production between June and July [8] - There is a notable gap in production capacity between thick and thin fabric, primarily due to technical adjustments and efficiency differences [17] Challenges and Considerations - The current shortage of ordinary electronic fabric is attributed to rising demand in the electronic sector and capacity constraints, with prices expected to continue rising in the short term [5] - Domestic equipment attempts to enter the market face challenges with low yield rates, requiring further validation of feasibility [8] - The company currently sells most of its first-generation yarn externally due to supply constraints, with potential plans to shift towards self-use in the future [15] Production Performance - The monthly shipment volume for the second-generation department was approximately 400,000 meters in December, with plans to increase production through capacity conversion and improved yield rates [19]