铅市需求

Search documents
基本面新变化是否将令沪铅加速下跌?【机构会诊】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 10:02
Core Viewpoint - The imposition of varying tariffs on China's lead-acid battery exports by Middle Eastern countries is expected to have a limited impact on the overall lead market demand, despite creating negative sentiment that may drive lead prices down [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Lead Market - Middle Eastern countries will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 70% on Chinese lead-acid batteries, which is an increase from previous rates of 5% to 30% [2][3]. - In 2023, China's exports of lead-acid batteries to Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 7.67% of total exports, indicating that the overall impact on lead consumption is relatively small [2][3]. - The expected reduction in exports to the Middle East due to tariffs is estimated to affect lead market demand by only 0.2-0.3 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Current State of Recycled Lead Production - Recycled lead enterprises are currently facing losses due to high costs of raw materials, with the latest price at 10,250 yuan per ton [5][6]. - The operating rate for recycled lead was only 38.81% in June, indicating a slow recovery in production [5][6]. - The supply of waste batteries is tightening, leading to a continued loss for many recycled lead producers, with expectations of limited production increases [5][6]. Group 3: Seasonal Demand and Inventory Levels - The current consumption season for lead does not show significant characteristics of a peak, with downstream companies remaining cautious in their purchasing [7][8]. - The seasonal peak for lead-acid battery consumption is expected to begin in late July, but demand recovery appears limited so far [7][8]. - Lead ingot inventory levels remain high, but there are signs of a gradual reduction in inventory accumulation as downstream demand begins to improve [8]. Group 4: Price Support and Market Dynamics - The downward pressure on lead prices is being countered by significant losses in recycled lead production, which may provide some support for prices around the 16,500 yuan level [9]. - The overall supply-demand balance remains weak, with external factors limiting price increases despite strong cost support from raw materials [9][10]. - The potential for a recovery in lead prices hinges on the performance of downstream demand and the ability of producers to manage inventory levels effectively [9][10].