Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand for lead in the current market is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery sector. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up for production should theoretically strengthen, but the actual spot trading volume is average when prices rise, and the market is still in a wait-and-see state. The overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage, and the consumption increment in August is expected to be weak due to factors such as tariffs and front-loaded consumption. However, as the peak season progresses, there is a possibility of demand improvement. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the demand has not effectively driven inventory depletion, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan; the 3-month LME lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 US dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead was -20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The SHFE lead open interest was 98,794 lots, an increase of 3,302 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead was -2,542 lots, an increase of 1,231 lots. The SHFE lead warehouse receipts were 61,784 tons, a decrease of 751 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,334 tons, a decrease of 949 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was -70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was -42.01 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.28 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,154 yuan, an increase of 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The WBMS lead supply - demand balance was -18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was -60 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the waste battery market was 10,112.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.86 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,901.83 points, an increase of 30.7 points. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 730,000, an increase of 166,600; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, an increase of 166,600 [3] Industry News - The Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Fed Chair, and Trump said the number of candidates is down to three or four and will appoint a new Fed Chair soon. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting is a live meeting; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut, which is positive for the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump said Russia will face consequences if it doesn't stop the conflict and hopes to have a second meeting with Putin. European leaders urged Trump to pressure Putin to agree to a cease - fire and meet with Zelensky. If a cease - fire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies may consider relaxing sanctions on Russia [3]

Core Viewpoint - The imposition of varying tariffs on China's lead-acid battery exports by Middle Eastern countries is expected to have a limited impact on the overall lead market demand, despite creating negative sentiment that may drive lead prices down [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Lead Market - Middle Eastern countries will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 70% on Chinese lead-acid batteries, which is an increase from previous rates of 5% to 30% [2][3]. - In 2023, China's exports of lead-acid batteries to Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia accounted for 7.67% of total exports, indicating that the overall impact on lead consumption is relatively small [2][3]. - The expected reduction in exports to the Middle East due to tariffs is estimated to affect lead market demand by only 0.2-0.3 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Current State of Recycled Lead Production - Recycled lead enterprises are currently facing losses due to high costs of raw materials, with the latest price at 10,250 yuan per ton [5][6]. - The operating rate for recycled lead was only 38.81% in June, indicating a slow recovery in production [5][6]. - The supply of waste batteries is tightening, leading to a continued loss for many recycled lead producers, with expectations of limited production increases [5][6]. Group 3: Seasonal Demand and Inventory Levels - The current consumption season for lead does not show significant characteristics of a peak, with downstream companies remaining cautious in their purchasing [7][8]. - The seasonal peak for lead-acid battery consumption is expected to begin in late July, but demand recovery appears limited so far [7][8]. - Lead ingot inventory levels remain high, but there are signs of a gradual reduction in inventory accumulation as downstream demand begins to improve [8]. Group 4: Price Support and Market Dynamics - The downward pressure on lead prices is being countered by significant losses in recycled lead production, which may provide some support for prices around the 16,500 yuan level [9]. - The overall supply-demand balance remains weak, with external factors limiting price increases despite strong cost support from raw materials [9][10]. - The potential for a recovery in lead prices hinges on the performance of downstream demand and the ability of producers to manage inventory levels effectively [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]