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铜:国内库存增加,价格承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The price of copper is under pressure due to the increase in domestic inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85,800 with a daily increase of 1.65%, and the night - session closing price was 85,260 with a decline of 0.69%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 10,576 with a decline of 0.08% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 115,060, a decrease of 53,254 from the previous day, and the open interest was 208,930, an increase of 13,663. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 16,201, a decrease of 12,872, and the open interest was 320,000, an increase of 2,953 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 44,531, an increase of 8,236, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,350, a decrease of 450. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 6.18%, a decrease of 1.55% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 26.93 to 27.94. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread increased by 40 to 90 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In September in China, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low for the year. The year - on - year decline of CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.3%. In the US, economic activity has changed little since early September, and tariffs have pushed up prices, affecting consumers [1]. - **Industry News**: The investigation of the accident at Chile's El Teniente copper mine will take months. Codelco's copper production in August was 93,400 tons, a 25% year - on - year decline. In September, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 258.7 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 2.2634 billion tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 485,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. Germany's Aurubis has had preliminary consultations with the US on support policies for a new copper smelter [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].