1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Views - Currently, downstream consumption is affected by holidays and shows a downward trend. In the short term, the operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still significantly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the continuous strengthening of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for the copper variety, it is still recommended to mainly conduct buy hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The night session of the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 79,050 yuan/ton and closed at 79,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% compared with the afternoon closing of the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, holders began to lower the premium quotes. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in the Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, and then were traded at a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton after being pressured. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton, with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton, mainly Jinchuan, and CCC - P was still in short supply. In the second trading session, some sources such as those from Japan, South Korea, Dajiang PC, and Dajiang HS were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the market procurement sentiment index increased to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index increased to 3.29. Shanghai copper spot merchants were worried that the premium would continue to fall in the future and actively sold goods to take profits [2] 3.3 Important Information - **Macro and Geopolitical**: India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon. In China, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day [3] - **Mine End**: Talon Metals plans to raise about C$24 million (US$17.6 million) for the development of its Tamarack nickel - copper - cobalt project in Minnesota, but its stock price plunged after investors digested the pricing. The financing will be carried out through two independent financings. Tamarack is a joint - venture project with Rio Tinto, which holds 51% of the equity as the project operator. Rio Tinto has approved the adjustment of the underground development plan of its Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold mine in Mongolia. Due to the continuous delay in the license transfer, the company has suspended the development work in the joint - venture area with Entrée Resources. Rio Tinto said that the capacity ramp - up of Oyu Tolgoi is still progressing as planned, and the target of an average annual copper production of about 500,000 tons from 2028 to 2036 remains unchanged. Depending on the license transfer schedule of Entrée, the company may prioritize the production of Panel 1 or Panel 2 South. Despite the adjustment of the development strategy, Rio Tinto still maintains its 2025 copper production guidance between 780,000 and 850,000 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Zhongkuang Resources Group announced on June 6 that due to the global shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. The smelter has an annual copper concentrate processing capacity of 240,000 tons and is one of the few facilities in the world capable of processing complex copper ores containing arsenic and lead. It became a Chinese - funded enterprise after being acquired from Dundee Precious Metals in Canada in 2024. Currently, the plant is planning to upgrade its equipment to commercially extract key minerals such as germanium (with a reserve of 746 tons) and evaluate the feasibility of adding a zinc smelting line. In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, compared with 438,000 tons in April; from January to May, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The year - on - year increase narrowed to 8.16 percentage points. The industry showed typical off - season characteristics. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and combined with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday factor, some enterprises cut production and reduced inventory more than expected. During the same period, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was reported at 76.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59 percentage points. Although it still increased by 2.09 percentage points year - on - year, the phenomenon of weak new order acceptance was prominent. Research showed that as the previous orders were gradually delivered, the new order volume of some enterprises decreased by about 10% month - on - month. Under the dual pressures of high raw material prices and seasonal weakening of demand, the short - term operating rate is expected to remain under pressure [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 120,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons to 33,746 tons. On June 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons compared with the previous week [6]