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行业周报:有色金属周报:泰克资源铜矿超预期减产,稀土第三波有望启动-20251012
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 11:14
本周行情综述 铜:本周 LME 铜价-3.05%到 10374.00 美元/吨,沪铜+3.37%到 8.59 万元/吨。供应端,据 SMM,截至本周四,全国主 流地区铜库存周内环比增加 1.8 万吨至 16.63 万吨,主因国产货源到货增加叠加下游消费持续偏弱;展望后续,SMM 预期进口与国产货源到货将增加,且铜价高位抑制下游采购情绪,预计下周库存会有所增加。冶炼端,据 SMM,受节 前后铜价大幅上涨、再生铜原料供应增加影响,本周废产阳极板企业开工率为 53.04%,环比上升 1.41 个百分点; 预计下周开工率环比再升 5.09 个百分点,达 58.13%。消费端,据 SMM,本周黄铜棒行业表现偏弱,企业开工率 41.3%, 较节前回落 7.18 个百分点,主因国庆假期企业停工放假,生产节奏放缓;库存方面,样本企业原料库存 4.45 天、 成品库存 5.99 天,受铜价快速冲高影响,企业普遍控制备货,整体库存较前期收缩。 铝:本周 LME 铝价+1.63%到 2746.00 美元/吨,沪铝+1.45%到 2.10 万元/吨。供应端,据 SMM,本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 64.90 万吨,较 9 月 ...
和讯投顾吴青宇:铜、黄金、芯片等领涨,坚定看多但黄金需防回调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 07:44
固态电池和可控核聚变,其实都是能源方向的,主要是受技术突破的影响,一个是中国科研团队在固态 电池领域取得新的技术突破。第二个就是我国紧凑型聚变能实验装置best建设,现场传来好消息,就该 装置首个关键部位度把底座成功落安装,标志着这个项目进入新的阶段,那预计2030年可控核聚变开始 发电,其实这两个概念的话,今天领涨的主要是存储芯片,那主要是制售存储芯片涨价逻辑,另一方面 老美开始就是收紧半导体出口管制,那未来继续看好国产替代加速,那么接下来行情大概率是北美芯片 上涨会比不上国产替代的。所以我们接下来要注意去做好切换指数上今天是完成了对3900点的突破,那 么接下来一定是横有多长竖有多高,我们只要坚定看多耐心持仓,继续享受牛市就行了,那其实我也非 常希望我们能走从美股那种十几年的大牛市,让我每天都活在这种上涨的恐惧当中。 10月9日,和讯投顾吴青宇表示,早上主攻的方向主要有有色、黄金、固态电池、存储芯片和可控核聚 变,有色主要是铜价的上涨那受两方面的利好,一个是印尼国家的铜矿事故停产,导致整个铜的供应量 在两年内降低,那这里可以稍微展开一下,芯片制作其实也是需要用到铜的铜缆连接,可能在未来成为 主流的芯片传输 ...
永安期货有色早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:27
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/30 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 2025/09/29 -15 2077 98779 25603 -898.28 192.48 53.0 57.0 -29.22 143900 9875 变化 -1 ...
【有色】自由港削减2025、2026年产量指引,10-12月国内空调排产环比改善——铜行业周报(0922-0926)(王招华等)
光大证券研究· 2025-09-29 23:06
点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明: 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结:供给紧张加剧,继续看好铜价上行 截至2025年9月26日,SHFE铜收盘价82470 元/吨,环比9月19日+3.20%;LME铜收盘价10205 美元/吨,环比9 月19日+2.09%。(1)宏观:市场预计美联储10月继续降息25bp,降息周期仍未结束,后续美元指数或继续走 弱。(2)供需:自由港因Grasburg矿难削减2025、2026年产量20/27万吨(占2024年全球铜矿产量的0.9%和 1.2%),矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张,10-12月空调排产环比持续改善,随着电网、空调等下游需求Q4环比回 升以及贸易冲突逐步消化,铜价后续有望上行。 库存:国内铜社库环比-5.9%,LME铜库存环比-0.7% (1)国 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 11:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The eight - department plan aims to increase resource exploration and reserve for non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, which will have a balanced impact on nickel prices. The overall consumption of non - ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with some sectors facing challenges and others having potential for improvement [43][45][55] - The copper market is affected by factors such as Grasberg's production decline, Congo - Kinshasa's smelter reduction, and domestic production issues, leading to a tight supply situation. The consumption is weak, but the bullish trend is strengthening [2][3][4] - The alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the price rebounds slightly before the holiday, it is expected to remain weak due to the open import window and fundamental oversupply [8][12][13] - The aluminum market shows short - term shock due to factors like US economic data, domestic inventory changes, and consumption uncertainty, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up after the holiday [14][17][18] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by factors such as tight waste aluminum resources and extended holidays of downstream enterprises, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [21][23][25] - The zinc market has potential production reduction in mines in October, with an expected increase in domestic refined zinc supply. The consumption is expected to remain weak, and the overseas de - stocking may support the price [30][31][33] - The lead market has a tight balance in the lead concentrate supply, with expected production increase in regenerated lead. The consumption in the peak season is under - performing, and the price may decline [37][40] - The nickel market has a surplus of refined nickel, but the price is affected by factors such as the plan and downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to import and inventory changes [43][45] - The stainless steel market has increased production in September, but the demand has not shown seasonal characteristics. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [47][48] - The tin market has a tight supply in the mining end, weak demand, and a high - level shock is expected [54][56][57] - The industrial silicon market may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered after the correction [63][64][65] - The polysilicon market may have a short - term decline, and long positions can be re - entered after sufficient correction during the holiday [66][67] - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and gradually narrowing supply growth. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The spot premium was stable, and the inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons [2] - **Important Information**: Policies encourage resource exploration and utilization, and Argentina approves a copper project. The supply is expected to increase during the holiday, while the demand will weaken [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Grasberg's production decline and other factors lead to tight supply, and the consumption is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - long strategy for long - positions, hold cross - market positive spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2,904 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased in various regions [7] - **Related Information**: Policies guide project layout, production capacity utilization rate changes, and raw material prices decline [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The policy has limited impact on production capacity expectations, and the price is restricted by import and oversupply [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [14] - **Related Information**: US economic data is released, inventory decreases, and the photovoltaic installation shows a downward trend [14] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term price is in shock due to economic data and inventory changes, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be shock - weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [18][19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [21] - **Related Information**: Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry, warehouse receipts increase, and downstream enterprises' holiday arrangements change [21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The price is restricted by tight raw materials and extended holidays of downstream enterprises [23][25] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell to 21,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased [29] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and a mining company obtains a new mining license [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The mine production may decrease in October, and the refined zinc supply may increase [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell to 16,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [36] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and the production and consumption of lead - related industries change [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate is in tight balance, and the consumption in the peak season is under - performing [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline [40] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 fell to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed [42] - **Related Information**: Policies and a mining right auction affect the market [43] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by policies and consumption trends, with a surplus of refined nickel [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [44] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell to 12,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price range is given [47] - **Important Information**: India approves steel certifications [48] - **Logic Analysis**: The production increases, but the demand has not shown seasonality, and it is expected to shock at a high level [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [49][50] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2511 contract closed at 272,410 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52] - **Related Information**: US policies and economic data, and industry development plans are announced [54][55] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and options should be on the sidelines [57][58] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 8,610 yuan/ton, and the spot price of some grades decreased [61][62] - **Related Information**: The export volume increases [63] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The inventory structure may cause feedback, and the price may correct in the short - term [64] - **Strategy**: The price may correct in the short - term, and long positions can be entered after the correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit, and no arbitrage opportunity [65] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [66] - **Related Information**: A research shows the feasibility of EU's solar component production [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot price is stable, but there is pressure on the contract due to warehouse receipt cancellation, and the demand is expected to weaken [67] - **Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term, exit long positions first, and re - enter after sufficient correction. Do reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose to 73,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Projects in Argentina and China are progressing, and policies are announced [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is strong, and the supply growth is narrowing, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [73] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and sell out - of - the - money put options [74] Second Part: Non - Ferrous Industry Prices and Related Data - Multiple tables and figures present daily data and price trends of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, premiums, spreads, inventory, and production profits, comparing data from different dates and showing changes compared to the previous weekend and the end of the previous month [77][88][104]
永安期货有色早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:02
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/09/29 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/22 70 1351 105814 29893 -157.47 153.75 58.0 59.0 -72.44 145375 12475 2025/09/23 55 1248 105814 27727 -118.34 228.24 58.0 59.0 -73.11 144975 11875 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 变化 - ...
供给端扰动频发,铜价有望迎来上行周期:有色金属大宗商品周报(2025/9/22-2025/9/26)-20250928
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-09-28 13:57
证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 28 日 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现: 证券分析师 田源 SAC:S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC:S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC:S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC:S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 供给端扰动频发,铜价有望迎来上行周期 投资评级: 看好(维持) ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(2025/9/22-2025/9/26) 投资要点: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜:供给端扰动频发,铜矿或由紧平衡转向短缺,铜价有望迎来上行周期。本周伦铜/沪 铜/美铜涨跌幅为+2.08%/+3.20%/+2.89%。供给端,全球第二大铜矿 Grasberg 遭遇矿难 停产,Freeport 预计最早要到 2027 ...
有色及贵金属周报合集-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 10:51
国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 (联系人)从业资格号:F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 01 02 03 05 06 04 铜:原料供应扰动增强,具备长期多配价值 铝:小幅反弹后再回调,依然在磨盘,节前可轻仓;氧化铝:重心继续下移,关注下方 空间 铸造铝合金:短期磨盘,关注四季度汽车冲量 铅:假期前企业补库,社会库存下降支撑价格 锡:矛盾并不突出,关注内外反套策略 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 日期:2025年09月28日 2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all ...
港股金属有色行业:成长性与防御性兼具的优质赛道 (1)
2025-09-26 02:29
港股金属有色行业:成长性与防御性兼具的优质赛道 20250924 摘要 预期降息增强,资金涌入具金融属性的有色金属,港股中小型有色金属 公司估值低、弹性高,配置价值凸显。 钴行业预计 2026 年后出现约 3 万吨短缺,钴价或持续上涨至接近 40 万元/吨。力群资源受益于印尼湿法冶炼产能,利润弹性大,预计 2026 年镍部分利润超 40 亿元。 黄金价格受降息周期和去美元化驱动,预计将向 4,000 美元/盎司迈进。 紫金黄金国际估值偏低,上市后有望炒至 3,000 亿港币以上。 铜矿供应紧张,多家公司下调产量预期,预计 2025 年至 2026 年上半 年为全球铜矿最紧张时期,铜价易创新高,明年上半年或达 12,000 美 元/吨以上。 钨矿供应受配额下降、超采减少和政策限制,需求端稳健,预计 2025 年至 2027 年供需缺口持续,支撑钨价高位运行。嘉欣国际受益于钨价 上涨,利润空间大,目前市值被低估。 Q&A 港股有色金属板块的投资价值如何? 港股有色金属板块具有较高的投资价值,主要原因包括基本面的供需格局改善、 价格支撑以及相关行业净利润增长超预期。此外,内资和外资对该板块的关注 度持续提升,尤其是 ...
港股金属有色行业:成长性与防御性兼具的优质赛道
2025-09-26 02:29
港股金属有色行业:成长性与防御性兼具的优质赛道 20250924 摘要 预期降息增强,资金涌入具金融属性的有色金属,港股中小型有色金属 公司估值低、弹性高,配置价值凸显。 钴行业预计 2026 年后出现约 3 万吨短缺,钴价或持续上涨至接近 40 万元/吨。力群资源受益于印尼湿法冶炼产能,利润弹性大,预计 2026 年镍部分利润超 40 亿元。 黄金价格受降息周期和去美元化驱动,预计将向 4,000 美元/盎司迈进。 紫金黄金国际估值偏低,上市后有望炒至 3,000 亿港币以上。 铜矿供应紧张,多家公司下调产量预期,预计 2025 年至 2026 年上半 年为全球铜矿最紧张时期,铜价易创新高,明年上半年或达 12,000 美 元/吨以上。 钨矿供应受配额下降、超采减少和政策限制,需求端稳健,预计 2025 年至 2027 年供需缺口持续,支撑钨价高位运行。嘉欣国际受益于钨价 上涨,利润空间大,目前市值被低估。 Q&A 港股有色金属板块的投资价值如何? 港股有色金属板块具有较高的投资价值,主要原因包括基本面的供需格局改善、 价格支撑以及相关行业净利润增长超预期。此外,内资和外资对该板块的关注 度持续提升,尤其是 ...