行业 有色金属周报 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | ウ 铜 . | C | | --- | --- | | ウ碳酸锂 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… - 8 - | | | → 知 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

智通财经APP获悉，湘财证券发布研报称，在铜铝铂钯四大重点跟踪金属中，看多铜、铝价格，谨慎看 多铂价，对钯价格中性偏看空。在投资标的方面，铜板块建议关注具有铜矿，持续并购铜矿的上游龙头 企业，即使股价有所上涨的背景下，该行认为铜金属的定价仍未结束。铝板块关注电解铝环节。铂板块 关注国内铂金属回收龙头。维持有色金属行业"增持"评级。 湘财证券主要观点如下： 铜 本月铜价延续上行态势但伴随阶段性现货贴水，这一现象在铜价快速上行背景下更可能是短期调整(类 似2024年年中情况)，当前判断铜价转向为时尚早;供给端维持增长但累计增速环比回落，需求端受国补 退坡影响白电需求持续回落，但空调及冰箱对铜的需求整体保持稳定，阶段性核心矛盾集中于关税担 忧、大国博弈、数据中心资本开支等因素，白电行业更多是铜价的接受方而非决定方，对铜价影响有 限;库存方面，北美"囤铜"行为加剧，全球铜库存延续紧张格局，行业供需矛盾尚未得到根本解决，整 体呈现供需偏紧态势，因此维持铜价看多判断。 铝 本月铝价延续上行态势但伴随阶段性贴水，电解铝与氧化铝价差持续走阔，二者走势分化的格局暂未扭 转。供给端，氧化铝市场供需挤压下，除精细/化学品氧化铝制造 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜铜价高位下调，跨年涨势快，外盘多头减仓锁盈。国内铜市关注基本面变动，上海铜贴水50 元、精废价差扩至6000元，等待本周社库。伦铜关注实值期权仓量变动。前期2602期权组合策略仍 可持有。 【铝】 隔夜有色整体回落。开年资金助推沪铝冲击历史高点后回落，未能创造历史新高，短期走势和基本 面背离，有色整体波动率高，投机保持谨慎。吨铝利润飙升至8000元附近，铝厂卖出保值考虑参 与。 综合晨报 2026年01月08日 (原油) 当前原油市场处于供应过剩的累库格局，从EIA、 IEA、OPEC三大机构平衡表预估情况来看, 2026Q1全球原油市场面临较大累库压力。美委局势难为油价反弹提供持续性的基本面支撑，反而美 国对委内打击目标在于快速实现政权更迭后接管委内石油资源，若后续制裁放松、外资重新进入委 内石油基础设施,则委内石油产量及出口面临增加可能。综上,油价主基调仍为供需宽松主导的中 枢下行趋势。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业 PM154.4好于预期和前值，上期所调整白银期货交易 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic copper market is experiencing a significant price increase, with expectations of a new upward trend in copper prices for 2026 due to supply concerns and strong demand forecasts [1][4][6] - As of January 7, 2025, the domestic electrolytic copper price reached 103,535 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.17%, breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark by the end of December 2025 [2][3] - The long-term contract negotiations for 2026 are characterized by heightened pricing enthusiasm, reflecting market concerns about supply tightness and demand resilience [2][3] Group 2 - The copper concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) negotiations are currently at a stalemate, with expected prices for 2026 ranging from -11 to 0 USD/ton, indicating a significant drop compared to previous years [2][3] - The long-term contract prices for copper in various regions show substantial increases, with some areas reporting price hikes of at least 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous year [3] - The external trade long-term contracts for 2026 show a price increase of 100 USD/ton compared to the previous year, indicating optimism about overseas demand, particularly in Southeast Asia [3] Group 3 - Supply-side concerns are supported by predictions of marginal growth in global copper mine production of only 300,000 to 450,000 metric tons for 2026, influenced by various systemic risks [4] - Despite traditional consumption shrinking, global copper consumption is expected to grow by 3.4% year-on-year in 2026, driven by rapid growth in AI and energy storage consumption [5] - The macroeconomic environment and industry trends are expected to support a long-term upward trend in copper prices, with projections for the LME three-month copper price to range between 10,800 USD/ton and 15,000 USD/ton in 2026 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Aluminum - The market surplus pressure of alumina remains severe, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. The key to a trend - like rebound lies in subsequent capacity control policies or large - scale substantial production cuts [1]. - The strong macro and policy expectations provide a solid bottom for aluminum prices, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will significantly limit the upside space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum operating in the range of 23200 - 24400 yuan/ton [1]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. However, there is limited new driving force in essence. After the holiday, the news has significantly boosted the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough around 130,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22400 - 23400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply, import window changes, and the actual stocking rhythm of downstream enterprises before the Spring Festival [3]. Tin - The market sentiment has fluctuated greatly recently, causing tin prices to fluctuate sharply. It is advisable to operate with caution, and subsequent attention should be paid to the macro situation and the recovery of the supply side [5]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. It is still expected that the price of industrial silicon will fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the futures price has risen and then fallen. In January, the demand is weak, and there is pressure for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the production cut situation and price adjustment acceptance [9]. Nickel - The recent expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals still restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side operation, with the main reference range of 130,000 - 138,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a callback after the impact of the news is digested [10]. Stainless Steel - The supply pressure of stainless steel has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has been strengthened, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 12800 - 13500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the ore - end news and downstream stocking [11]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, zinc prices rose sharply. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates is tight, and the supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. The demand side is performing well. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - environment, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [12]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, but in the short term, the previous sharp rise in prices has suppressed real demand. Although the current price is over - valued to some extent, it may still maintain a strong trend in a high - risk - preference environment, with the main contract paying attention to the 95500 - 96000 support [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze River A00 aluminum prices rose by 3.78% to 23310 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 47.7 yuan/ton to - 1931 yuan/ton [1]. - The monthly spreads of AL contracts showed different degrees of change [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina, domestic electrolytic aluminum, and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, while the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased and the export volume increased [1]. - The operating rates of some aluminum - related industries changed slightly, with the operating rate of alumina rising by 0.68% to 80.39% [1]. - The social inventories of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [1]. Carbonate Lithium Price and Spread - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. all increased to varying degrees [2]. - The monthly spreads of contracts showed different degrees of change [2]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of carbonate lithium increased, while the demand decreased. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased significantly [2]. - The production capacity of carbonate lithium increased in January, and the operating rate in December rose by 3.57% to 58% [2]. - The total inventory of carbonate lithium decreased in December [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in various regions rose, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum also increased [3]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and scrap aluminum increased, while the import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots changed slightly [3]. - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly [3]. - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [3]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin rose by 1.58%, and the import loss decreased by 15.50% [5]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the import of tin ore increased significantly, and in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly [5]. - The export volume of refined tin in November increased significantly, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin decreased to zero [5]. - The operating rates of SMM refined tin and SMM solder showed different degrees of change [5]. - The SHEF and social inventories of tin decreased [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis increased [7]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with production in Xinjiang increasing and production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The national operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang increasing and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreasing [7]. - The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased slightly [7]. - The export volume of industrial silicon increased [7]. - The inventories of Xinjiang factories and social inventories increased slightly [7]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type poly - feedstock and N - type granular silicon increased, and the basis of N - type material decreased [9]. - The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed slightly [9]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract of futures rose by 1.25%, and the monthly spreads of contracts changed [9]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon showed different trends, and the import volume decreased while the export volume increased significantly [9]. - The production and demand of silicon wafers decreased, and the import and export volumes also decreased [9]. - The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various types of nickel increased, and the import loss of futures decreased significantly [10]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [10]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while the import volume increased [10]. - The SHFE and social inventories of nickel increased, while the LME inventory increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the futures - spot price difference increased [11]. - The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore, ferrochrome, and high - nickel pig iron changed slightly [11]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [11]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while the production in Indonesia increased slightly [11]. - The import volume of stainless steel decreased, and the export volume increased [11]. - The social inventories of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse inventory decreased slightly [11]. Zinc Price and Spread - The prices of SMM 0 zinc ingots in various regions rose, and the import loss decreased slightly [12]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - The operating rates of galvanizing, zinc die - casting alloy, and zinc oxide showed different degrees of change [12]. - The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased, while the LME inventory decreased slightly [12]. Copper Price and Basis - The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. rose, and the import loss increased [13]. - The monthly spreads of contracts changed [13]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, and the import volume decreased slightly [13]. - The import copper concentrate index decreased slightly, and the inventory of copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports decreased [13]. - The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased [13]. - The domestic social inventory, SHFE inventory, and COMEX inventory of copper increased, while the LME inventory decreased [13].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 截至2025年12月31日，SHFE铜收盘价98240 元/吨，环比12月26日+2.23%；截至2026年1月2日，LME铜收 盘价12461 美元/吨，环比12月24日+3.36%。（1）宏观：美国铜关税预期仍导致全球铜库存持续流向美 国，COMEX铜库存持续新高。（2）供需：国家发改委12月26日强调对铜冶炼等产业强化管理和优化布 局，中国铜冶炼产能增长或受限。12月线缆企业开工率创近6年新低，铜价大涨对需求有压制；但展望 2026年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+23%，LME铜库存环比-7% （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年12月31日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存64.6 万吨，环比上周-16.7%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至2025年12月31日，全球三大交易所库存合计78.9 万吨，环比12月21日 +10.2%。截至2025年12月31日，LME铜全球库存14.5 万吨，环比-7.4%；SMM铜社会库存23.9 万吨，环 比12月25日+23.4%。截至1月2日，COMEX铜库存50.0 万吨，环比12月24日+4.2%。 ...

2026年首个交易日，有色金属板块在地缘冲突与供应扰动的双重刺激下全线冲高，但内部强弱分化显 著。一边是铜、铝及贵金属在避险情绪与供需偏紧格局下强势领涨，另一边铅价虽被动跟涨，据长江有 色金属网获悉，今日长江现货市场1#铅跟风突发反弹，均价涨125元/吨至17425元/吨，但现货成交寡 淡、贴水扩大的细节暴露反弹"虚火"，在累库压力与需求疲软的基本面制约下，震荡偏弱格局难改。 铅价虽实现125元/吨的日度反弹，但其驱动力主要来自板块情绪传导与期货盘面拉动，而非自身基本面 改善。现货市场成交清淡、贴水扩大，反映出下游接受度有限。更为关键的是，节后累库压力显著，原 生铅库存周增幅超100%，而铅蓄电池等行业仍处淡季，新能源领域需求尚未形成有效替代，供需结构 对价格构成持续压制。 总结： 一、板块普涨背后的双引擎：地缘风险与供应约束 2026年有色金属市场开局即呈现"整体有热度，内部有冷热"的特征。在把握铜铝等强势品种机会的同 时，也需理性辨别如铅等品种基本面与价格走势的背离，避免盲目跟风。后续应重点关注地缘局势演 进、主要产区供应恢复情况以及国内节后需求复苏节奏。 美国在委内瑞拉等地的地缘动作推升了全球资源供应的 ...

铝：需求预期或上调，铝价突破创新高。1）氧化铝：产能高位运行叠加库存上升，氧化铝现货价格延 续弱势。本周氧化铝价格持平为2685元/吨，本周冶金级氧化铝运行产能达8868.9万吨/年，周度开工率 上升0.55pct为80.39%。短期内，氧化铝供需基本面仍维持过剩格局，氧化铝库存持续累积，现货价格 延续弱势。后续需持续关注氧化铝成本利润与运行产能情况。2）电解铝：需求预期或上调，铝价突破 创新高。本周沪铝涨1.59%至2.27万元/吨，伦铝价格上涨1.79%至3010美元/吨，电解铝毛利6862元/吨， 环比增加7.18%。在铜价创历史新高背景下，空调等家电领域"铝代铜"进程或加速推进，另一方面消费 品以旧换新政策有望在2026年延续，电解铝需求有望上调。库存方面，国内库存小幅累积，伦铝库存 50.93万吨，环比减少2.26%，沪铝库存12.98万吨，环比增加1.02%，国内现货库存为59.7万吨，环比持 平。供给端，国内电解铝运行产能接近天花板，海外在建项目进度缓慢，而需求端维持稳定增长甚至存 超预期可能，电解铝今年或出现短缺格局，铝价有望迎来上行周期。建议关注：中孚实业、宏创控股、 云铝股份、电投能源、天 ...

专题：2025年国际财经新闻大盘点 2025年以来，铜价累计上涨42%，创下2009年以来的最大年度涨幅。推动铜价走高的因素包括供需担 忧、人工智能热潮以及关税相关顾虑。 这一素有"黄金琥珀色近亲"之称的金属，正悄然跻身强势品种行列。 铜作为人工智能数据中心建设的核心原材料，其年度表现即将刷新自大萧条以来的最佳纪录。 周二，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价格徘徊在每吨12222美元附近，较周一创下的每吨12960美元历史高 点小幅回落。这一价格较年初水平累计上涨42%，成为2009年以来的最佳年度涨幅。 顶级经济学家戴维・罗森伯格的分析显示，截至周二，铜价已实现连续第八个交易日上涨，创下八年来 最长连涨纪录。 近年来，铜作为工业金属一直"藏身"于贵金属光环之下，而此番铜价的暴涨，背后有三大核心推手： 人工智能热潮：铜是数据中心的关键组成部分，被视为人工智能投资热潮的关联投资标的。 高盛集团则预测，未来十年铜价将突破每吨15000美元，较当前价格仍有22%的上涨空间。 供需失衡压力：铜行业正面临供应端的多重挑战，与此同时，电气化转型带来的需求却在持续增长。美 国为应对潜在关税冲击，也在大举囤积铜库存，这进一步助推了铜 ...

铜价高位背景下，劳资利益分配博弈或成供应端隐性风险点 尽管此次面临罢工威胁的智利曼托维德铜金矿25年预计产量为2.9-3.2万吨，贡献供给端产量占比较小， 但该行认为，在铜价持续上行的背景下，企业与员工之间的利益分配博弈或导致此类以薪资纠纷为核心 原因的铜矿罢工事件发生概率提升。例如位于智利的全球第一大铜矿Escondida铜矿，在铜价上行情况 下其分别在2017年2月与2024年8月因工资待遇不公、安全生产风险高等原因进行罢工。17年的罢工导致 该矿减少21万吨的产出，占比17年铜矿总产量超过1%，直接推动铜价创下15年5月以来的最高价，而24 年的罢工在全球铜精矿供应紧张之时也引发恐慌情绪推动铜价短期上行。该行认为，在当前铜价处于历 史高位的背景下，矿企劳资利益分配博弈或加剧，成为脆弱的矿端供应链上隐性风险点，或加剧矿端扰 动情况，进而持续推升铜价。 供给紧缺趋势是铜价上行的基本动力，继续看好铜板块的中期投资价值 自9月Grasberg矿难以来，市场对矿难导致的供给缩减已在逐步形成共识，但对铜价高位可能导致罢工 风险的概率提升、加剧矿端供应链的脆弱性尚未形成认知。回顾推动铜价上行的原因，该行认为供给紧 缺 ...