铜行业周报 2026/02/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日低开高走，尾盘拉涨。基本面来看，假期间上游冶炼负荷相对正常，后续 铜供应以高位稳定为主，SMM 数据显示，1 月产量较预期多 1.57 万吨，预计 2 月回归正 常。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜预计产量环比减少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。下游工厂尚未开启完全的复产复工，整体市场交投活跃度低，同时由于假期期间 下游需求端暂停，上游产量正常，故铜社会库存量大幅累积增加。临近金三银四预期， 但目前来看，现货市场交投情绪冷清，库存高位压制盘面价格，美伊谈判过后，市场暂 无释放情绪信号，美元承压，支撑有色金属走势。后续关注地缘局势冲突及下游的高价 接受度，短期偏强。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜高开高走，日内偏强。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-250 元/吨 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口关闭。宏观方面，昨晚美联储理事米 | | | | | | | | | | 兰重申尽管劳动力市场有所改善，但 2026 年仍需降息 100 个基点，并倾向于尽早行动。 | | | | | | | | | | 昨晚尽管英伟达报告超预期，但市场对 ai 担忧不减，拖累纳指下行，进一步影响市场情 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绪。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 3950 吨至 259600 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 9.98 吨至 | | | | | | | | | | | 545267 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 1413 吨至 289219 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 14218 吨。需求方 | | 铜 | | 面，关注节后开工情况。Ai 担忧下美股动荡拖累市场情绪，短期仍不排除宏观情绪退潮 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The raw material side disturbances support the copper price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 102,180 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 102,190 with a night - session increase of 0.01%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,239 with a daily increase of 1.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 193,391, a decrease of 14,245 from the previous day, and the open interest was 568,047, an increase of 2,458. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 26,491, an increase of 14,242, and the open interest was 326,000, an increase of 893 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 178,897, an increase of 12,958. The LME copper inventory was 192,100, an increase of 3,000, and the注销仓单比 was 11.69%, an increase of 1.39% [1] - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads such as LME copper basis, bonded - area bill premiums, etc., with different changes compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US January non - farm payroll report was overall strong, which dampened the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and traders postponed the expected time of the first interest - rate cut from June to July [1] - **Industry**: Glencore Canada was forced to suspend major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, and the investment in the Canadian copper refinery would be scaled back in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile. Harmony Gold said its newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two - year renovation. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promoted central enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] for the intensity value, indicating a certain degree of upward trend [3]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好回暖，主要资产普遍反弹 海外方面，日本执政党在 2 月众议院选举获压倒性胜利，首相称食品减税将通过非税收 入与补贴审查筹资、不发行赤字国债，日股涨近 4%，日元兑美元升值 0.85%。贝森特称即 便沃什执掌美联储，缩表亦难加速，在压低按揭利率目标下，美联储将以金融稳定优先，避 免激进收紧。市场风险偏好继续修复，美股全线收涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.19%，金银分 别修复至 5030、82 美元，铜价、油价延续收涨 1%+。本周关注美国 1 月非农、CPI 以及 12 月零售数据。 国内方面，上周处于经济数据与政策真空期，国内市场跟随海外进一步修复，A 股周一 延续修复，上证指数低开高走收于 4123 点，双创板块领涨，红利风格相对较弱，两市超 4700 只个股收涨、赚钱效应极好，成交额小幅升至 2.27 万亿元，两融余额边际下降，中证 500、 中证 1000ETF 显著净流入。市场正从月初的大跌中逐渐修复：一方面受海外科技股反弹 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, and a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown following a funding agreement [3][19] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China rose to a three-month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][19] - Copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, supporting a tight supply sentiment, while February's estimated electrolytic copper production is projected at 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][20] - The net imports of refined copper in December fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories increased by 29,000 tons to 1.123 million tons as of February 6, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - The market anticipates short-term price corrections due to demand disruptions around the Chinese New Year, but strong support is seen below 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating continued investor interest [5][21] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel ore premiums have increased, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising by $4.5/ton to $30/ton, while refined nickel production is expected to decline by 5% month-on-month to 35,800 tons [6][22] - The demand for new energy materials is projected to decrease, with February's production of ternary precursors expected to drop by 7% to 80,790 tons and ternary materials by 15% to 69,250 tons [6][22] - Stainless steel prices have generally declined, with total social inventory increasing by 1.29% week-on-week to 965,000 tons [6][22] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with nickel prices experiencing fluctuations, but cost support remains strong due to supply concerns from Indonesia [7][23] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching 2,824 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2%, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 5.1% to 23,315 yuan/ton [8][24] - The operating rate of alumina plants increased by 0.53% to 77.8%, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 343,200 tons [8][24] - Social inventories of alumina increased by 5,020 tons to 176,000 tons, while aluminum ingots saw a weekly increase of 5,400 tons to 836,000 tons [9][25] - The market anticipates a potential rebound in aluminum prices post-holiday, with attention on inventory levels and external market influences during the holiday period [9][26] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping to 8,500 yuan/ton, while polysilicon prices increased to 49,285 yuan/ton [11][27] - The production of industrial silicon decreased by 10,340 tons to 63,300 tons, with a notable reduction in operational furnaces [11][27] - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant price adjustments and a slowdown in new orders due to seasonal factors [12][28] - The market is expected to face challenges as supply tightens, with a focus on the upcoming demand recovery in the traditional peak season [12][29] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with a projected decline of 16.3% in February [14][30] - The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is also expected to decline, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium battery supply chain [14][31] - Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [14][33] - Market sentiment remains volatile, with price fluctuations influenced by downstream demand and strategic stocking behaviors ahead of the holiday [14][33]

产业补库托底铜价，春季旺季补库叠加供应偏紧或进一步推升铜价。 一是下游在库存低位背景下对于低价铜补库意愿强。二是考虑到春季旺季到来，在 海外铜矿供应扰动频发且TC/RC处于低位的背景下，我们认为铜供需或持续偏紧，有望进一步推升铜价。 行业近况 2月 3日 [1] ， 中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上表示，完善铜资源储备体系建设。2月2日 [2] ，美 国 宣布正启动一项120亿美元的关键矿产储备计划（"Project Vault"），包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产，以对冲供应链风险。 据Mysteel，2月2日国内铜价短暂回落，下游补库需求环比大幅增长，当日电解铜、铜杆成交量达3.8、4.3万吨，环比+108%、+198%，分别创近三月、 2025年3月来新高。 评论 中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长。 一是国内提出完善铜储备体系建设，国储与商储模式结合，精炼铜与铜精矿均纳入考量范围。二 是美国启动关键矿产储备计划，其两大交易所铜库存持续增长。据iFinD，1月19日起CME-LME铜溢价转负，LME美国铜库存仅在11个交 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that the domestic initiative to build a copper resource reserve system aims to enhance the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain. The ongoing global geopolitical shifts and major power competition will lead to an expanded global copper deficit, resulting in an upward trend in copper prices due to a "security premium" [1] Group 1: Copper Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The construction of a copper resource reserve system in China is intended to improve the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain [1] - Global geopolitical changes are prompting countries to secure key minerals for resource supply safety and to build independent supply chains, which will exacerbate the global copper deficit [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Investment Opportunities - Short-term copper prices are influenced by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, but there is potential for recovery due to improving downstream demand, which supports the fundamental outlook [1] - Current valuations of certain core copper mining stocks in the A-share market show a high margin of safety for 2026, highlighting their investment value [1] - The outlook for copper prices is positive, with expectations for continued increases in the future [1]

中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长 一是国内提出完善铜储备体系建设，国储与商储模式结合，精炼铜与铜精矿均纳入考量范围。二是美国 启动关键矿产储备计划，其两大交易所铜库存持续增长。据iFinD，1月19日起CME-LME铜溢价转负， LME美国铜库存仅在11个交易日内快速攀升至1.5万吨；COMEX铜库存仍在累增，截至2月2日， COMEX铜库存达53万吨，周环比+2%，累库速度在C-L溢价转负后略放缓。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，美国宣布正启动关键矿产储备计划，包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地 质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产，以对冲供应链风险。国内同步跟进提出完善铜储备体系建设，国储与 商储模式结合，精炼铜与铜精矿均纳入考量范围。库存上看，下游在库存低位背景下对于低价铜补库意 愿强。同时，考虑到春季旺季到来，在海外铜矿供应扰动频发且TC/RC处于低位的背景下，铜供需或持 续偏紧，有望进一步推升铜价。 中金主要观点如下： 行业近况 2月3日，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上表 示，完善铜资源储备体系建设。2月2日，美国宣布正启动一项120亿美元的关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Copper - Short - term: Supply - side issues like low port copper ore inventory and low TC, and demand - side improvement in terminal orders after price retracement. Global visible inventory is accumulating. In the context of narrowing CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing with increased price volatility. - Medium - to - long - term: The logic remains unchanged. Supply - side capital expenditure is constrained, and AI - driven grid upgrade demand is expected. The bottom center of copper prices is expected to gradually rise. Pay attention to the support level between 101500 - 103000 [1]. 2.2 Zinc - Spot trading improvement is limited. Fundamentally, the tightness of the zinc mine supports prices, but the high zinc price suppresses demand. The smelting profit is under pressure, and the finished product inventory is accumulating. The global visible zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The price has support below but is pressured by demand feedback above. Pay attention to the support level around 24000 [5]. 2.3 Nickel - Macro sentiment and ore - end expectations affect price fluctuations. Currently, the macro situation is stable, and there is support for prices before the ore - end disturbances are clarified. Refined nickel production is stimulated by high prices, but demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 130000 - 140000 [8]. 2.4 Aluminum - Alumina: Affected by events like strikes and production cuts, the market is bullish, but high - inventory pressure in the spot market suppresses prices. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro, geopolitical, and financial factors. However, it has deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to make long - term layouts after price stabilization and volatility reduction. Pay attention to the support level between 23000 - 23500 [10]. 2.5 Stainless Steel - The cost support exists, and there is an expectation of supply reduction due to steel mill production cuts. However, the demand boost in the off - season is insufficient, and inventory digestion is slow. It is expected to have a short - term shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 13500 - 14500 [12]. 2.6 Lithium Carbonate - The futures price rebounds slightly. The supply is expected to decline due to pre - holiday maintenance, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory shows a certain de - stocking trend in the off - season. The price is expected to have a shock adjustment, with the main reference range of 145000 - 155000 yuan/ton [15]. 2.7 Tin - Short - term: Affected by the stock market sell - off, there is a risk of price correction. - Medium - to - long - term: Considering supply - side low elasticity and long - term AI demand, a low - buying strategy can be adopted [17]. 2.8 Industrial Silicon - The price stabilizes. In February, the supply and demand are expected to be weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production reduction and demand changes [19]. 2.9 Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand are weak. The production is expected to decrease, and the demand reduction is limited. The price may stabilize and fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see during the cooling - down period and pay attention to production reduction and demand recovery [20]. 2.10 Aluminum Alloy - The price is highly volatile. The cost is the main driving factor. The supply and demand are seasonally weak. The ADC12 price is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum circulation, import window, and downstream inventory - building [22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 3.04% to 104405 yuan/ton, and the price of related products also changed to varying degrees. The CL premium affects price trends [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price fell 0.60% to 24900 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.83% to 141600 yuan/ton, and the cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose 2.02% to 23760 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related products remained stable [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Wuxi and Foshan changed slightly, and the price of raw materials remained stable [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 0.33% to 153000 yuan/ton, and the prices of related products also decreased [15]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price rose 3.44% to 395050 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose 0.63 - 0.85% in different regions, and the refined - scrap price difference and monthly spread changed [22]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased slightly by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The inventory of copper - related products changed to varying degrees [1]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons. In December, the import volume decreased by 51.94% to 0.88 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 36.32% to 2.73 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [5]. - **Nickel**: In January, China's refined nickel production increased by 20.06% to 37700 tons, and the import volume increased by 84.63% to 23394 tons. The inventory of related products changed [8]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 0.47% to 379.86 million tons. The operating rates of related industries and inventory changed [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In January, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 26.72% to 65.737 million tons, and the production in Indonesia increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In January, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 97900 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.18% to 130118 tons. The inventory increased [15]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore import remained unchanged at 17637 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% to 15950 tons. The import and export volumes and inventory changed [17]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 5.44% to 37.55 million tons, and the operating rates of related regions and industries decreased. The inventory changed slightly [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In January, polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons, and the import and export volumes and inventory changed [20]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.69% to 61.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly by 0.26% to 30.33 million tons. The operating rates and inventory changed [22].