降息+基本面反转，重视铜、铝买入机会！20250825 摘要 美联储鸽派信号增强降息预期，叠加经济软着陆预期，流动性释放利好 以美元计价的有色金属，预计铜、铝等工业金属价格将受益于金融和商 品属性共振。 稀土总量调控管理办法正式稿发布，冶炼企业由两大集团变为指定企业， 供给收紧预期推动氧化钕镨等稀土价格上涨，需求旺季备货和出口订单 修复亦构成支撑。 铝市场基本面出现反转，LME、COMEX 库存处于历史低位，铝棒社会 库存和国内电解铝库存均连续去库，下游开工率回升，电网施工周期重 启加速提货，供需结构改善。 长期来看，全球铝供应增速因印尼项目延期和非洲减产而下降，电力和 基建需求增长，当前是长期买入机会，建议关注盈利能力与铝价同频共 振的云铝股份，预计今年盈利 70 亿元。 建筑行业季节性反转叠加电缆提货周期和下游铝板带需求回暖，将提振 铝市场，9-10 月开工率回暖和极低库存将放大铝价波动，下半年铝价或 创新高。 Q&A 美联储 9 月份降息的预期对工业金属市场有何影响？ 我们推荐了三只值得关注的股票： 1. 中国有色矿业：2024 年矿产总产量为 16 万吨，未来五年内自有矿产量 有望翻倍。今年上半年利润 ...

钴行业 - 继续看好钴板块投资机会 20250824 摘要 全球钴需求持续增长，预计 2025 年将达 24-25 万吨，美国收储计划虽 占比不高，但对市场需求拉动明显，尤其是在金属钴领域。 钴行业供需格局转变，刚果（金）出口禁令导致供应减少，叠加美国收 储及大圆柱电池对三元材料的需求拉动，预计 9 月起钴价将上涨。 受益于战略属性提升及收储计划，钢股行业有望迎来发展机遇，类似于 稀土和钨市场，行业供需格局正从商品属性向战略属性过渡。 美联储鸽派言论提振有色金属板块，钴、钨等战略金属投资机会显现， 市场对钴板块高度敏感，相关公司股票价格已大幅上涨。 预计未来几个月钴价将显著上涨，从目前的 26 万元/吨有望涨至 35 万 元以上，涨幅超过三分之一，华友钴业等公司有望受益。 有色金属板块整体估值不高，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等公司市盈率仍维持 在较低水平，钴等小商品性价比突出，投资吸引力强。 铜市场淡季累库不明显，三季度需求有望恢复，四季度需求持续增长， 全球铜供应无明显增量，铜价上涨窗口期，看好金诚信、紫金矿业和铜 陵有色。 Q&A 钢股行业未来发展前景如何？ 由于战略属性提升及美国等国家收储计划实施，全行业公司均 ...

7 月家用空调产量同比持平，好于此前排产预计数 ——铜行业周报（20250818-20250822） 要点 本周小结：宏观情绪好转，铜价有望自 9 月开始走强。截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日， SHFE 铜收盘价 78690 元/吨，环比 8 月 15 日-0.47%；LME 铜收盘价 9797 美 元/吨，环比 8 月 15 日+0.37%。（1）宏观：美联储主席鲍威尔 8 月 22 日讲话 偏鸽，市场预计 9 月降息概率较大。（2）供需：因此前美国铜关税导致的库存 搬运已进入尾声，LME 和 COMEX 累库有望逐步结束；国内淡季即将结束，看好 9 月以后国内需求好转。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求 Q4 回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+4.9%，LME 铜库存环比+0.2%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 22 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 56.2 万吨，环比上周 -1.1%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 18 日，全球三大交易所库存 合计 50.9 万吨，环比+1.5%。截至 2025 年 8 月 21 ...

每经AI快讯，中国银河（601881）证券指出，全球铜矿供应端扰动不断，智利El Teniente铜矿因事故导 致未来几年产能增量受损；智利下调今年的铜产量预期，预计将达到558万吨，同比增长1.5%，而此前 5月预测产量增幅为3%；此外，非洲赞比亚二季度铜产量出现下滑，主因酸性物质泄漏事故、矿山品位 下降等。尽管当前仍处铜需求淡季，但电网及新能源领域需求韧性较强，且国内社会库存仍处同期低 位，现货维持升水格局，继续支撑铜价。我们认为在矿端供给约束、美联储9月大概率重启降息以及"金 九银十"的需求旺季下，铜价有望继续平稳上涨。此外，国内下游多家大厂密集招标，叠加我国加强稀 土磁材出口管制后海外增加磁材订单以补库存，国内永磁行业需求旺盛，部分磁材企业排产已延至十月 中旬。我国进一步加严对稀土供应端的管控，下游需求端的景气，推动稀土价格持续上涨。稀土磁材在 上半年的业绩反转后，2025Q3有望在量价齐升的推动下进一步释放业绩。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies have a positive impact on the market. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market news [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend. Short - term, the Shanghai copper is predicted to operate in the range of 78300 - 79500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading or stay on the sidelines [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is in an upward trend with shock adjustments. It is recommended to take the opportunity to place long orders for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and stay on the sidelines for alumina [3]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Lead - The lead price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices within the range of 16500 - 17200 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel - In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to moderately hold short positions at high prices for nickel, with the main contract operating in the range of 120000 - 124000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, range trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The tin price is expected to oscillate within the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range trading and continue to monitor supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [4]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Due to various market rumors, the risks in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are relatively high. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium price is expected to continue its strong trend. It is recommended to trade cautiously and continue to monitor upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material factory production schedules [4]. 3.2 Metal Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the global inventory of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, the global copper inventory increased by 1.27% week - on - week, the global aluminum inventory decreased by 1.38% week - on - week, and the global zinc inventory increased by 8.38% week - on - week [9]. 3.3 Macro Hotspots 3.3.1 Current Week's Macro Data - From August 11 - 17, a series of macro - economic data were released. For example, the eurozone's August ZEW economic sentiment index was 25.1, the US July core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and China's July M2 money supply year - on - year was 8.8% [13]. 3.3.2 Sino - US Trade and Financial Data - Since August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff has been suspended for 90 days again. In July, China's new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales in July slowed down to 3.7%, and the real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12% year - on - year [14][15][16][17]. 3.3.3 US Economic Data - In July, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.7%, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached a new high since February. The US July PPI year - on - year soared from 2.3% to 3.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.9%, a three - year high. The US July customs tariff revenue reached 28 billion US dollars, a record high, but the fiscal deficit still expanded [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Next Week's Macro Data Calendar - From August 18 - 24, important macro - economic data such as the US July new housing starts month - on - month, China's August LPR, and the eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value are scheduled to be released [22]. 3.4 Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - For each metal, the report provides market trend charts (monthly, daily, quarterly lines) and key data tracking, including inventory, spot premium and discount, institutional positions, etc. For example, for copper, it shows the Shanghai copper main contract's monthly line, daily line, and LME copper's relevant data [26][27][28][37][39].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [3][4]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [3]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more visible, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [3]. - Domestic cable operating rates have slightly decreased, and air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [3]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 4.8%, while LME copper inventory increased by 0.1% [4]. - As of August 15, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 558,000 tons, down 10.0% from the previous week [4]. Raw Materials - In July, domestic old scrap copper production increased by 3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In July, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [6][7]. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a slight decrease in operating rates [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October [8]. Futures Market - As of August 15, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 36% [9].

2025 年 8 月 17 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业空头创 2012 年 1 月以来新低 ——铜行业周报（20250811-20250815） 要点 本周小结：铜价短期仍维持震荡。截至 2025 年 8 月 15 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 79060 元/吨，环比8月8日+0.73%；LME铜收盘价9760 美元/吨，环比8月8日-0.08%。 （1）宏观：美联储 9 月降息概率增加，美元本周走弱。（2）供需：美国与非 美地区的库存套利逻辑已结束，原搬运至美国的库存将逐步显性化，短期 LME 和 COMEX 均面临累库压力；国内线缆开工率本周小幅回落，8-10 月空调排产 同比下降，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求 Q4 回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4 铜价有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-4.8%，LME 铜库存环比+0.1%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 15 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 55.8 万吨，环比上周 -10.0%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 11 日，全球三大交易所库 存合计 50.2 万吨，环比+6.4%。 ...

Core Insights - Northern Copper announced its financial results for the first half of 2025, reporting a revenue of 12,810,895,390.34 yuan, which represents a year-on-year growth of 2.81% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 476,875,539.40 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.99% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [4][5]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [4]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more apparent, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [4]. - Domestic cable operating rates have rebounded but remain significantly lower than the same period last year, with air conditioning production expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [5]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [5]. Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 21 CNY/ton this week [6]. - China's refined copper production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Smelting - The TC spot price was -38 USD/ton, reflecting a 4 USD/ton increase from the previous week, but still at a low level not seen since September 2007 [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in July was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [7]. Demand - Cable operating rates increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October, with refrigerator production also showing a downward trend [8]. Futures Market - The open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to continue rising in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the LME and COMEX copper inventories are facing upward pressure, while domestic cable production rates have increased but remain significantly lower than the previous year [1][2]. - The report suggests that the demand for copper will rebound in Q4 2025, driven by the recovery in electric grid and air conditioning needs [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [2]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 472,000 tons as of August 4, 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase [2]. Supply - The TC spot price increased by $4 per ton week-on-week, currently at -$37.98 per ton, remaining at historically low levels [3][63]. - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [3][66]. - The report notes a decrease in the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper, indicating potential tightening in scrap supply [2][56]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with the current rate at 69.89% [3][75]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year, with expected reductions of 2.8%, 12.7%, and 12.1% for August, September, and October respectively [3][94]. - The report emphasizes that the demand for copper in the power sector remains strong, supported by ongoing investments in power infrastructure [75][82]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [4][32]. - As of August 8, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 157,000 lots, reflecting a 4.1% decrease from the previous week [4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].