铜短缺危机
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IEA:全球铜短缺危机即将来临
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 00:39
Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant copper supply gap in the next decade, with demand potentially exceeding supply by 30% unless global mining accelerates [2] - By 2035, global copper demand is expected to grow due to energy transition and AI development, leading to a potential supply gap of 30% [2] - The copper mining industry faces challenges such as declining ore grades, rising capital costs, and long project development cycles, making it difficult to increase production [2] Group 2 - The global copper market is projected to grow from $9.24 billion in 2024 to $13.93 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% from 2025 to 2035 [3] - A global copper shortage began to emerge at the end of 2023 due to mine closures and rapid expansion of smelting capacity, leading to decreased processing fees and reduced profitability for smelters [3] - Countries are investing heavily in copper mining and refining to strengthen supply chains, with Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula smelter in the Democratic Republic of Congo being the largest and most environmentally friendly in Africa [3] Group 3 - The Mining Association of Canada anticipates a strong recovery in copper mining in the coming years, reflected in increased interest in restarting or expanding copper production [4] - Operations at Teck Resources' Highland Valley copper mine will extend beyond 2040, and Newmont's Red Chris mine is expected to increase national copper production by up to 15% by 2030 [4] - China, as the largest copper consumer, faces challenges including rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and high copper prices suppressing downstream demand [4]