近日，在2025年彭博创新经济论坛期间，彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）远程接受21世纪 经济报道专访时指出，美国关税政策的升级正在深刻改变全球贸易结构与经济增长路径。据其分析，特 朗普政府已将美国平均关税从约2%大幅提高至约15%，这一政策变动导致"美国在全球贸易体系中的角 色正在缩水"。 欧乐鹰表示，根据可计算一般均衡模型（CGE）测算，平均15%的关税水平预计将使未来几年对美出口 规模较无关税情形下降约20%。随着对美国出口壁垒上升，各国正积极寻求替代市场，全球贸易中"绕 过美国"的部分将逐步增长，而与美相关的贸易流则趋于收缩。 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 自美国总统特朗普今年1月入主白宫以来，美国对主要贸易伙伴频频挥舞关税"大棒"，给全球贸易格局 带来了巨大干扰。世界贸易组织（WTO）警告称，特朗普关税正在对国际贸易体系造成80年来"前所未 见"的破坏，预计2026年全球货物贸易增长仅为0.5%。 彭博经济研究预测，2026年全球经济增长率可能进一步放缓至2.9%，低于2025年的3.2%。欧乐鹰指 出，企业为规避关税而进行的超前进口行为已进入库存消化阶段，其滞后影响 ...

Group 1 - The article presents an overview of the upcoming "China Internet Development Yearbook (2025-2026 Core Trend Insights)" which aims to outline the development blueprint and core tracks of the Chinese internet industry based on extensive data and in-depth analysis [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding industry flow changes, technological integration, business model innovation, advertising marketing trends, and the development of artificial intelligence to support strategic decision-making [1][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment, social consumption trends, and the landscape of the internet industry for 2025 are analyzed, providing insights into the overall context in which the internet sector will operate [2][3] - The yearbook will cover various trends including terminal development and traffic layout, platform operation and business conversion, advertising marketing and brand strategy, as well as AIGC and application intelligence development [3]

Group 1 - The Brazil Center has officially opened its first institutions in Shanghai, aiming to facilitate Brazilian tech companies' participation in the China International Import Expo [1] - The Brazil Center serves as a comprehensive service platform for Brazilian enterprises entering the Chinese market and Chinese companies expanding into Brazil [1] - The initiative is expected to strengthen cooperation between Brazil and China in technology and innovation, as well as in business, culture, education, and tourism [1] Group 2 - The opening ceremony coincided with the 51st anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Brazil, celebrated with events such as Brazilian coffee experiences and music performances [2]

衡宇 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 科技巨头、亿万富翁、AI押注者&话事人…… 但你可能没注意到，除了这些身份 之外，奥特曼和扎克伯格还有个鲜为人知的共同点： 末日堡垒建造者 。 所谓 末日堡垒，指的是在危机时刻可以长期生存的地下避难所 ，具备防灾、储粮、自给自足等功能，是科技富豪们眼中的最后保险。 据Wired报道，这个夏天，小扎斥6500万美元巨资，又悄悄在夏威夷考艾岛北部海岸买了962英亩的牧场土地。 为啥说又？ 因为大约十年前开始，小扎就陆陆续续在这里大肆买地： 2014年花费1亿美元，首次购置700英亩土地；2021年又购置了近700英亩。 今年的这次买地位置就在先前已购地产的旁边，也让小扎夫妇在考艾岛的总土地持有量增加到超过2300英亩，价值超过3亿美元。 但和传统剧本里的富豪买岛养老剧本不一样，小扎买地并不仅仅是为了度假、冲浪。 啊这…… AI界的科技大佬，是不是看到了什么我们不知道的？ 据透露，小扎在考艾岛上不断买地，是打算在这块大地产上开发一个大型综合住宅园区，包括两座大型豪宅 （拥有30间卧室和30间浴室） 、 防爆门掩体、高级体育设施、几十栋客栈和形态独特的树屋等建筑。 ...

Core Insights - The "Global AI Governance Evaluation Index 2025" was officially released on July 24, showcasing China's leading position in AI governance among 40 evaluated countries [1][5][30]. Group 1: Evaluation Framework - The AGILE Index project started in 2023, with the first version published in February 2024 covering 14 countries. The 2025 version expanded to 40 countries and includes 43 indicators across four main evaluation areas: AI development level, governance environment, governance tools, and governance effectiveness [5][7][30]. - The evaluation framework aims to provide a comprehensive and comparable assessment of AI governance, integrating diverse data sources such as policy documents, governance practices, and research outputs [5][30]. Group 2: Country Rankings - The performance of the 40 countries is categorized into three tiers based on their scores, with the top three countries being China, the United States, and Germany, all scoring above 60 [7][10]. - The distribution of scores in AI development level and governance tools shows significant variance compared to governance environment and effectiveness, indicating a more pronounced stratification among countries [8][10]. Group 3: Research and Development - Over the past year, more than 420,000 researchers published over 200,000 AI-related publications, and over 16,000 AI patents were granted. By March 2025, 375 large-scale AI systems had been developed, supported by over 11,500 EFlop/s of supercomputing power and at least 8,000 data centers [16][18][24]. - The number of recorded AI risk events increased significantly, with a 100% rise in 2024 compared to 2023, highlighting growing concerns about AI governance [18][24]. Group 4: Public Attitudes and Participation - Public sentiment towards AI is generally positive, with a majority recognizing its potential for innovation and efficiency, while also expressing caution regarding ethical and real-world risks [21][22]. - Countries like France, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore exhibit the highest levels of participation in international AI governance mechanisms [19][20]. Group 5: Expert Opinions - Experts have praised the AGILE Index 2025 for its comprehensive analysis and its role in facilitating international dialogue on AI governance, particularly emphasizing the contributions of developing countries [30][34][36][38].

Economic Overview - The domestic economy shows promising performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - The average wage income for residents reached 12,628 yuan, reflecting a growth of 5.7% [1] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating stable price levels [1] - Challenges remain in the real estate market, consumer demand, and employment situation, suggesting a prolonged recovery for the real economy [1] Trends in the Market - **Trend 1: Divergence in Housing Prices** Housing prices are expected to show divergence, with second and third-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in price declines, while first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen may face further price corrections [3][5] - **Trend 2: Increased Demand for Bank Wealth Management Products** As bank deposit rates decline from 3.05% to 1.55% for three-year fixed deposits, more savers are turning to bank wealth management products for better returns, despite rising risks associated with these products [7] - **Trend 3: Employment Challenges for Individuals Over 35** Many companies prefer hiring individuals under 35, making it increasingly difficult for those over 35 to find jobs, leading to a rise in self-employment and gig work among older individuals [9] - **Trend 4: Record Low Birth Rates in 2025** The birth rate is projected to hit a historical low, with only 4.32 million births in the first half of 2025, potentially falling below 9 million for the entire year due to high marriage and housing costs [11] - **Trend 5: Acceleration of Rural Entrepreneurship** There is a growing trend of individuals returning to their hometowns to start businesses, driven by high living costs in major cities and rapid economic growth in rural areas [13] - **Trend 6: Proliferation of Artificial Intelligence** AI is increasingly integrated into daily life, with applications in customer service, delivery, and manufacturing, indicating a shift towards automation in various sectors [14]