Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@80000 yuan/ton Core Viewpoints - Overseas copper mine disturbances persist, and the low TC price around -$40/ton has reflected the expectation of copper concentrate shortage, making the TC difficult to rebound in the short term and copper prices more likely to rise than fall, but it's not enough to form a continuous positive for the absolute copper price. Domestic anti - involution measures for copper smelting enterprises need attention. Near the National Day holiday, speculators with heavy positions are advised to reduce positions, and hedging investors can buy on dips between 80,500 yuan/ton and 80,800 yuan/ton [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 82,270 yuan/ton and closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 73,810 yuan/ton and closed at 74,060 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the electrolytic copper spot remained at a discount. The SMM1 copper average price was 82,010 - 82,410 yuan/ton, with a discount of 5 yuan/ton to the main contract (unchanged). The Shanghai copper price oscillated between 82,030 - 82,440 yuan/ton in the morning, and the import loss narrowed to less than 700 yuan/ton. Affected by the National Day holiday and end - of - quarter factors, market trading sentiment cooled, and high copper prices continued to suppress downstream procurement. The discount of flat - water copper decreased from 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton and then rebounded to 50 yuan/ton for transactions. The discount of wet - process copper was 100 - 80 yuan/ton, and that of non - registered sources was 200 - 160 yuan/ton. It is expected that trading activity will further decline at the end of the month, and the center of the spot premium or discount may move slightly higher [2] Important Information Summary - **Interest Rates**: Fed's Williams supported a rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor - market weakness and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [3] - **Tariffs**: US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the US and large tariffs on countries that don't manufacture furniture in the US to revitalize domestic industries [3] - **Fiscal**: The US Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and Democrats rejected a short - term temporary spending bill [3] - **Geopolitics**: US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which, if agreed by both sides, would end the war immediately, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian committee [3] Supply - Side Analysis Mine End - The copper market focuses on industry conferences and supply - side disruptions. The domestic copper industry association pointed out that "involution - style" competition in the smelting industry has pressured processing fees, and called for avoiding vicious competition. The spot market was quiet, with only a few smelters purchasing LP ore for November/December shipments at a low price of -$40/ton. Freeport confirmed that an accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine killed two and left five missing. After a two - week shutdown, the 2025 output forecast was lowered to 488,000 tons (from 750,000 tons), and the 2026 forecast to 500,000 tons (from 730,000 tons). SMM estimated a supply shortage of 268,000 tons in 2025. Hudbay's Peru Constancia concentrator temporarily closed due to social unrest but said it would not affect the annual output target [4] Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories continued to decline last week, reaching a new two - month low of 144,400 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that in the week of September 26, Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 6.65% to 98,779 tons, at a three - month high. International copper inventories decreased by 50 tons to 12,277 tons. COMEX copper inventories continued to increase, reaching a new high since late June 2003 at 322,284 tons [4] Demand - Side Analysis Consumption - Demand in various industries showed no seasonal improvement, with the power, construction, and automotive sectors remaining weak. Enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday. Raw material inventories increased by 2.21% to 32,400 tons, and finished - product inventories increased by 10.66% to 78,900 tons. Affected by the National Day holiday next week, many enterprises plan to stop production for holidays, and the operating rate is expected to drop to 59.72%, a decrease of 9.74 percentage points [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 143,900 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 954 tons to 25,603 tons. On September 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,300 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. Considering current market conditions, there are continuous overseas copper mine disturbances, but the long - term low TC price has reflected the shortage expectation. Grasberg's accident may make TC harder to rebound in the short term, making copper prices more likely to rise. However, it's not a continuous positive for the absolute price. Near the National Day holiday, speculators with heavy positions are advised to reduce positions, and hedging investors can buy on dips between 80,500 yuan/ton and 80,800 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put@80000 yuan/ton