铜进口关税预期
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美国COMEX铜库存首次突破50万吨,进口关税预期持续发酵
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 02:11
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surpassed 500,000 tons for the first time, driven by expectations of potential import tariffs starting next year, leading to a significant influx of copper into the U.S. market [2][3] - As of January 20, COMEX certified warehouse copper inventory reached 554,904 short tons (approximately 50.34 million tons), marking a 1.3% increase from January 16, and setting a historical high [2] - This inventory level is over three times that of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and is close to one-third of the projected U.S. refined copper consumption of 1.58 million tons in 2024 [2] Group 2 - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, there has been a substantial increase in copper shipments to the U.S. [3] - Despite refined copper being exempt from tariffs, the anticipation of a potential 15% tariff by 2027 continues to drive copper inflow into the U.S. market [3] - Analysts suggest that the current pricing structure and tariff uncertainties will likely keep copper flowing into the U.S. market until at least mid-2026, with U.S. copper inventories effectively becoming a strategic reserve [3] Group 3 - The copper arbitrage window between LME and COMEX has narrowed, leading to a potential increase in copper inflow to LME warehouses as traders seek to capitalize on price differences [5] - The LME warehouse in New Orleans has recently received its first copper inflow since mid-September of the previous year, with registered copper warehouse receipts reaching 1,525 tons [4]