Group 1 - Citi raised its 0-3 month aluminum price target to $3,400 per ton from a previous estimate of $2,950 per ton [1] - In the base case scenario (50% probability), the average aluminum price for Q1 2026 is projected to be $3,100 per ton, up from the previous estimate of $2,900 per ton; in a bullish scenario, it is expected to reach $3,500 per ton [1] - The 6-12 month price target is set at $3,300 per ton, aligning with a positive market environment, although the bank acknowledges potential for increased market volatility [1] Group 2 - Citi forecasts a slight structural supply surplus of 61,000 tons in 2026, which is expected to expand to 847,000 tons in 2027, remaining consistent with the base case scenario [1]

7月29日（周二），一份调查结果显示，分析人士表示，美国的关税措施预计会抑制铝的需求，铝主要 用于交通运输、建筑和包装等领域，但市场供应过剩缩窄，以及相对较低的库存水平将支撑铝价。对26 位分析师的调查预估中值显示，2025年四季度，LME现货铝合约均价料为每吨2,500美元，较前一次调 查中预估的2,518美元几乎未变，但较目前价格水平下滑5%。分析师将2025年铝市场供需情况从前一次 调查中预测的过剩28万吨调整为过剩20万吨。 ...