Group 1 - Guinea's government has revoked 51 mining licenses, including bauxite projects, raising concerns in the global bauxite shipping market [1] - Approximately 40 million tons of bauxite capacity may be affected, with a potential monthly production loss of about 1.7 million tons, equating to 5% of this year's global bauxite production [1] - China's alumina refineries are most impacted, with Guinea supplying around 70% of its bauxite to China, leading to a potential import loss of about 1 million tons per month [1] Group 2 - If supply issues persist, alumina spot prices may rise to around $390 per ton in the next three months, but could fall back to $360 if resolved quickly [2] - The uncertainty in Guinea's mining operations has increased due to military leadership and rising nationalism in some African countries [3] - The scale of the supply disruption is comparable to Indonesia's export ban in 2022, but finding alternative sources may be more challenging this time [4]