The upcoming report from Alcoa (AA) is expected to reveal quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, indicating an increase of 87.5% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $2.91 billion, representing an increase of 0.3% year over year.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 4.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This reflects how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reevaluated their initial estimates during this timeframe.Before a compan ...

SHMET 网讯：在2900点附近沉寂了近一个月的氧化铝，近日突然爆发，期价连续多日收阳，飙升至一个半月高位。 氧化铝持续反弹主要是受"反内卷交易"和仓单库存较低提振吗？目前几内亚已经进入雨季，对当地铝土矿发运的影响开始显现了吗？未来成本端会对氧化铝 形成支撑吗？当前国内氧化铝企业运营情况如何？后续产量仍有增加预期吗？氧化铝期价短期上涨空间还大吗？文华财经【机构会诊】板块邀请氧化铝期货 专家为您一一解答。 【机构会诊】：最近氧化铝持续反弹，主要是受"反内卷交易"和仓单库存较低提振吗？ 海通期货有色研究员 胡畔：最近氧化铝持续反弹，主因一方面几内亚宣布创建铝土矿国家指数GBX消息提振，叠加几内亚雨季对铝土矿发运影响预期使得 矿端支撑有所增强，另一方面国内行业反内卷题材从情绪方面提振，同时氧化铝仓单持续去化至不足2万吨的低位，虚实比高位，挤仓风险升温。 金瑞期货 滕聪：我们觉得需要分两个阶段看，前期近月氧化铝从3000附近一度涨至3400这一段我们觉得主要受前期低价减产和持续的仓单注销，叠加超预 期的接货，所以交割前后略有不匹配，多头平仓离场期价转跌。而近段时间，远月氧化铝近期强势上涨一是仓单库存持续去化，总体行 ...

| | 变量名称 | 2025-07-09 | 2025-07-08 | 2025-07-03 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 20515 | 20225 | 20680 | -10.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 102569 | 109583 | 114240 | -7,014.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 250099 | 254726 | 281092 | -4,627.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 47818 | 47218 | 28257 | 600. 00 | | | 沪铝基差 | SMM A00电解铝平均价 | 20660 | 20600 | 20860 | 60.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 沪铝基差 | 145 | 75 | 180 | 70. 00 | | | | 沪铝近月-沪铝连一 | 185 | 175 | 190 | 10.00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪铝连 -- 沪铝连二 | 60 | 55 | 70 | ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2023, 38 new mineral sites were discovered nationwide, representing a 31% year-on-year increase, with 25 of them being large and medium-sized [1] - Significant breakthroughs were made in important mineral types, including the discovery of China's first super-large uranium mine in Heilongjiang Province and a new rubidium resource of 3.37 million tons in Hebei Province [1] - Most mineral types have completed their exploration targets ahead of schedule for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total investment in non-oil and gas mineral exploration reached 6.993 billion yuan, a 23.9% year-on-year increase, indicating a sustained growth trend [2] - Social funding accounted for 3.359 billion yuan, a 28.2% increase, making up 48.0% of total exploration investment, reflecting increased corporate enthusiasm for mineral exploration [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has increased the supply of exploration rights, with 581 strategic mineral exploration rights issued in 2024, the highest in a decade, and 318 issued in the first half of 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The demand for critical mineral resources, particularly lithium, cobalt, and bauxite, is increasing globally, prompting African countries to tighten export restrictions on these materials [1][2] - Nearly half of the 54 African countries, including Angola, Zimbabwe, Guinea, and Gabon, have implemented export restrictions or bans on raw materials, with Zimbabwe planning to ban raw ore exports by 2027 [1][2] - Zimbabwe, one of the largest lithium producers globally, aims to develop its domestic lithium processing industry through export restrictions, creating 5,000 new jobs and increasing lithium export revenue from $7 million in 2022 to $600 million in 2023 [2] Group 2 - The Boston Consulting Group projects that the U.S. market demand for lithium batteries will grow nearly sixfold to $52 billion by 2030, driving African resource-exporting countries to seek ways to maximize national benefits [3] - Countries like Uganda and Guinea have already enacted new regulations to restrict ore exports, while others, including Ghana, Rwanda, and Zambia, are expanding their mineral processing facilities [3][4] - Chinese state-owned mining companies are actively participating in mineral processing projects in Africa, such as a $300 million lithium processing plant in Zimbabwe and a $450 million smelting plant in Ghana [4] Group 3 - The African Energy Chamber emphasizes that investors who bring not only capital but also technological expertise aligned with local development goals can find strong opportunities in this evolving landscape [4] - Despite progress in mineral processing, African countries face challenges such as infrastructure issues, a shortage of skilled labor, and increased illegal smuggling due to export restrictions [4] - The recent takeover of mining operations by governments in Niger and Mali highlights the political risks faced by investors, particularly Western companies, in the African mineral resources sector [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

中线行情分析 2025.7.7-7.11 电解铝 期货品种周报 趋势判断逻辑 大区间震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 国内支持政策持续发力，产量已经接近瓶颈，年内增量有限，但海外宏观不 确定性较大。 2 新单以高位震荡行情短线交易为宜。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2508合约波动区间看20300-20900。 未来一周沪铝2508合约波动区间看20300-20800。建议短线 交易为宜。 n 本周策略建议 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存 【总体观点】 | | 2025年7月第1周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 根据SMM数据，6月（30天）中国铝土矿产量环比减少3.2%，同比增加4.1%，近期受检查工作影响， | | | 国产铝土矿产量有所下降，产量预计在检查工作结束后有所恢复。进口铝土矿方面，前期主流国家 | | | 铝土矿发运仍处于高位，7月国内进口铝土矿到港预计维持高位，但几内亚雨季影响预计逐步显现。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截至7月3日，中国氧化铝建成产能为11082万吨，运行产能为8863万吨，全国周度开工率为79.97%， ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 国内矿石供给有所收紧， 氧化铝现货价格小幅上行 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3035243 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0014605 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 主力合约行情走势图（氧化铝） | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 7 | 年 | 月 | 6 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★国内矿石供给有所收紧，氧化铝现货价格小幅上行 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格短期暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西地区对矿山的各项检查均 尚未结束，部分企业自备矿仍以低位开工为主，多数小型矿山仍 ...

矿端扰动持续， 期价维持宽幅震荡 氧化铝月报 2025/07/04 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 月度评估 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截止7月4日，月内氧化铝指数较6月3日价格累计上涨1.02%至3011元/吨。因几内亚"禁采风波"没有进一步发酵，氧化铝期价逐步回落。进入下旬，随着宏观情绪改 善，商品整体走强，带动氧化铝期价企稳回升。7月2日，几内亚政府宣布创立铝土矿指数以增加国家税收，或将带动矿价重心上移，驱动氧化铝期价进一步上行。但中期氧化铝 供需过剩格局仍难改，预计反弹空间有限。基差方面，本月基差逐步回落，截止7月4日，山东现货价格较氧化铝主力合约价格升水66元/吨。月差方面，连一和连三月差维持震荡， 截止7月4日，连一和连三月差录得59元/吨。。 ◆ 现货价格：随着利润回升，前期检修产能逐步回归，氧化铝供应重回宽松，驱动6月氧化铝现货价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas market is showing signs of stagflation risk, while the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy with unchanged expectations for two rate cuts within the year. Domestic policies continue to support economic stability, with retail sales growth reaching a new high, indicating marginal improvement in consumption. However, a significant decline in real estate investment remains a core drag on the economy [2][16]. Group 1: Price Trends - Recent domestic and international aluminum prices have shown strong fluctuations. LME aluminum 3M opened at $2454/ton, reaching a monthly high of $2560.5/ton, with a monthly increase of $107.5/ton (4.38%). Meanwhile, domestic Shanghai aluminum opened at 20115 CNY/ton, with a monthly increase of 350 CNY/ton (1.74%) [3]. - The near-month Shanghai aluminum contract is supported by extremely low inventory and high spot premiums, while the far-month contract is pressured by weak seasonal demand and excess alumina supply, leading to a pessimistic outlook for future prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's electrolytic aluminum production remains stable and high, with strong support from the passenger vehicle market, despite weak real estate data. The current spot price of electrolytic aluminum is in a premium state [7]. - The domestic bauxite market has seen a slight price increase, currently quoted at 508 CNY/ton, with supply tightening due to seasonal rains and environmental inspections [8]. - The average theoretical cost of aluminum is 18374.51 CNY/ton, with an average profit of 3476 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Inventory and Consumption - As of July 3, 2025, aluminum ingot social inventory stands at 456,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory is at 163,000 tons [10]. - In May 2025, the operating rate for aluminum plate and strip enterprises was 73.00%, while the operating rate for aluminum rod and wire enterprises was 63% [13]. - The automotive market shows strong growth, with May production and sales reaching 2.649 million and 2.686 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [14]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that the traditional consumption will be suppressed by the approaching off-season, and the ongoing weakness in real estate will continue to be a challenge. However, low inventory levels and ongoing domestic growth policies are expected to provide some resilience to aluminum prices [19].