Group 1: Production and Capacity - The Guinea bauxite project is currently in trial production, with an expected mining volume of approximately 1 million tons in 2025, benefiting from local cost advantages [4] - The company plans to produce 25,000 tons of aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials in 2026, with confidence in meeting these targets based on order production models [4] - The Xinjiang 1.4 million tons electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement project has commenced, with the first batch of electrolytic cells powered on, aiming for an annual capacity increase to 1.4 million tons [4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Debt Management - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has decreased from 52% at the beginning of 2025 to 45.4%, with plans to continue reducing debt in 2026 while maintaining operational efficiency [5] - The actual dividend payout ratio for 2025 was 52.4%, with a commitment for 2026 to maintain a payout ratio of no less than 50% [5] Group 3: Energy and Cost Management - The cost of self-generated electricity decreased by approximately 23% year-on-year in 2025, while the cost of purchased electricity fell by about 17% [5] - The company expects a slight increase in average electricity costs in 2026 due to increased purchased electricity volume, but overall costs are projected to remain competitive due to high self-generation ratios and local coal cost advantages [5] Group 4: Strategic Projects and Investments - Future capital expenditures will focus on routine maintenance and strategic investments, particularly in the Indonesian alumina project, with estimated costs of $900 million to $1 billion for the first phase [6] - The company is actively preparing for the renewal of its high-tech enterprise certification, which is set to expire in 2026 [7] Group 5: Market Conditions and Risks - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East poses dual risks to the global aluminum supply chain, increasing concerns over supply disruptions and raising production costs for overseas electrolytic aluminum companies, particularly in Europe and the Middle East [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global electrolytic aluminum market remains in a tight balance, with a risk of the supply-demand gap widening. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips and take profits on sharp rallies, with the price expected to range between 22,000 - 25,000 [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Ore - Overseas - In Q2 2026, the long - term contract price of bauxite from Guinea is $70 per dry ton. In January - February 2026, bauxite imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the ocean freight rate soared to $31 per ton [6][11]. - In 2026, overseas bauxite supply will grow rapidly, with an expected supply increase of 3000 - 4000 tons. The supply will be in excess, and the price is expected to decline. The price of bauxite in Q2 2026 is expected to range from $65 - 75 [14]. Aluminum Ore - Domestic - In January - February 2026, the domestic bauxite production increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The domestic bauxite supply is expected to remain tight in 2026, and the price will rise slightly in Q2 [19]. Alumina - Domestic - In January - February 2026, domestic alumina production increased by 4.2% year - on - year. As of the end of March, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.75 million tons and an operating rate of 81.8% [26]. - Due to continuous losses and supply disruptions from a major manufacturer, the domestic alumina surplus situation improved in Q1 2026 but still showed a slight surplus [29]. - In 2026, nearly 10 million tons of new domestic alumina projects are planned, with the Q1 production postponed to Q2. The domestic alumina over - capacity pressure remains high [31]. Alumina - Overseas - In 2026, there are still many overseas alumina projects to be launched. The overseas alumina supply remains in surplus, and the supply surplus pressure increases due to a large number of overseas electrolytic aluminum production cuts [33]. Alumina - Strategy - The alumina industry is in a cost - pricing cycle. The high - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to exit to restore the supply - demand balance. The Q2 alumina futures price is expected to range from 2700 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the possible cycle reversal driven by anti - involution policies [38]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In January - February 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 7.304 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25%. The net import of aluminum ingots was 367,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum supply exceeded expectations, with more new capacity put into production in Q2, increasing the supply pressure [45]. - In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 29.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In 2026, it was 29.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [47]. Consumption - In 2025, the demand for electrolytic aluminum increased by 890,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In 2026, the demand increased by 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In January - February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand growth rate was - 0.77%. Power, energy storage, and exports performed well, while the automotive, photovoltaic, and real - estate sectors performed poorly [51]. Balance Sheet & Core Viewpoints - Macro: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East have raised oil prices and inflation expectations. Under tightening expectations, US AI stocks have fallen, and macro funds have left the market. Attention should be paid to the long - term decline in demand [58]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have significantly compressed the global electrolytic aluminum supply. Although demand faces long - term downward risks, it still shows short - term resilience. The global electrolytic aluminum market remains in a tight balance, and the supply - demand gap may widen. High domestic inventories suppress prices, while overseas inventories are relatively tight [58]. - Strategy: Buy on dips and take profits on sharp rallies. Keep rolling operations within the price range of 22,000 - 25,000 [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. The current supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. In the short term, the aluminum price may have an oversold rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The mainstream operating range of the aluminum price next week is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton. The range of SHFE Aluminum 2605 is expected to be 23,700 - 24,500 [5][10]. - The new long positions are recommended to wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The medium - to long - term is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and global economic stagflation, the supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. The aluminum price may have an oversold rebound next week, but the rebound space may be limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see, and temporarily avoid new long positions [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Hold light long positions [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: In the first quarter, Guinean mines have achieved full - production operation, and the supply is expected to remain high from April to June. However, Guinea plans to limit bauxite exports before early April to stabilize prices. The bauxite price of $60 may be the medium - to long - term bottom. Even if the export quota is implemented, the bauxite shipment from Guinea will not decline sharply in the short term [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of March 27, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,220 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.58%. The market supply - demand has changed from surplus to tight balance. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted the caustic soda supply, and Guinea's export control has led to market recovery [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February, the domestic built - in production capacity was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton production capacity limit. Projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the process of production, and some idle production capacity in the Northeast may resume production on a small scale. Overseas, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on the global aluminum supply chain. Qatar Aluminum has cut production by 636,000 tons, and Bahrain Aluminum has declared force majeure. ANZ Bank estimates that about 8 - 10 million tons of production will be affected in 2026, and it is expected to return to normal production by 2028 [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products has significantly declined from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [9]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was about 1.371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 69%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has significantly decreased, and the warehouse shipment volume has significantly increased during the price decline. The inventory accumulation cycle may be coming to an end. The inventory of aluminum rods is 330,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 26%, still at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton (last week it was about 7,300 yuan/ton), at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: The industry continues to improve, but the macro - guidance is weak. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain in the current range next week, with a mainstream operating range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite from Guinea and Australia have increased, while the price of domestic bauxite remains unchanged. The number of ship bookings by mines and traders has not significantly decreased. It is expected that the shipment volume in April will decrease, but the reduction is controllable. - The price of port thermal coal has shown a moderately strong shock trend this week. The market operation is relatively cautious. The current coal supply is at a high level, and the inventory days are higher than the safety line, so most power plants have no obvious pressure to replenish inventory. - The alumina price has risen and then fallen this week. The social inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and there is a large amount of inventory in the delivery warehouse. The upward price space is limited, and the lower limit is the cost line and the impact of overseas bauxite [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic bauxite supply is still in a relatively abundant state. The arrival volume in April may decrease, but the reduction is limited. - The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past 5 years. The in - plant inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased since March, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has continued to accumulate at a high level. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [15]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss of alumina is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 4,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 62.9% this week. The production of aluminum profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The demand for canning materials, batteries and other related products has continued to pick up, but the orders for automobile sheets have been affected by the tax incentive phase - out. The demand for aluminum cables is at a peak level, and the order scheduling in April is expected to be good. The orders for battery foils and packaging foils are prominent. Overall, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, but the high aluminum price and macro - uncertainty still suppress the demand release elasticity [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current SHFE aluminum futures show a contango market structure, with general spot demand. However, the slope of the spot price has eased compared with last month, and the spot - end demand is better than that in February. In the short term, the price is continuously guided by the macro - factors [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,980 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,790 yuan/ton last week. The current spread is supportive of electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. - The spread between the ADC12 spot and the active month of the SHFE casting alloy is about 3,740 yuan/ton this week, compared with 4,040 yuan/ton last week. The basis of ADC12 is at a high level in recent years, and the shortage of alloy spot is obvious [38][40]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has further shrunk, but it is still at a high level since 2018. Since January, the net long position of funds has generally shown a fluctuating decline. In the latest period, the reduction of the long - position camp is obvious, while the short - position camp generally remains inactive. The long - position still dominates, but the net long - power is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short - position of the main contract has remained stable and has decreased during the recent price decline. This week, the electrolytic aluminum price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and both the long and short camps have continued to significantly reduce their positions. The main contract is currently in a net short - position. Institutions mainly for speculation show signs of turning from net short to net long. The funds from the mid - and downstream enterprises have turned to a slight net short - position. Overall, the main - force funds are inclined to a slight rebound in the short - term price [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran having a significant impact on the energy market, leading to increased fuel costs in the shipping industry and potential disruptions to the supply chain [10][16]. - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture, with some positive signs in industrial profits but also challenges in areas such as manufacturing PMI and consumer spending [2][19]. - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with bond ETFs becoming a safe - haven due to rising risk aversion, and the stock and bond markets being affected by energy price increases and inflation expectations [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down from the previous month and the same period last year, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.5%, remaining the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - CPI in February 2026 was 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month and a significant improvement from the same period last year [1]. - PPI in February 2026 was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2026 increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous year [1]. - Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Imports in February 2026 increased by 13.8% year - on - year, also showing an upward trend [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of operating income improved significantly [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US in response to the latter's 301 investigations [2]. - From April 22, QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [3]. - On March 27, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - The Fed Vice - Chair expects the US economy to expand at about 2% or slightly faster in 2026, with stable unemployment [4]. Metals - Since late March, international gold prices have experienced a "historic" shock, and after a sharp decline, there is a mixed reaction in the market [5]. - Since March, the domestic non - ferrous futures sector has shown a downward trend, especially copper futures, which have fallen by more than 8% this month [5]. - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the market [6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A new rare earth - niobate mineral, Xianhuaite - (La), was discovered in the Bayan Obo deposit, which is of great value for the study of the deposit's formation [8]. - Due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian countries are increasing coal production and use [9]. - Indonesia has no plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports on April 1 [9]. - Bauxite shipments increased by 16% year - on - year, but experts are cautious about the market outlook [9]. Energy and Chemicals - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant increase in the fuel cost of the global shipping industry, and the industry is facing pressure but also has an opportunity for energy transformation [10]. - Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to July 31 to stabilize prices and ensure domestic supply [10]. - India has imposed windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports [10]. - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [11]. - The US allows Cuba to receive a large - scale oil shipment from Russia, breaking the oil blockade [11]. Agricultural Products - On March 29, the national pig market showed a widespread upward trend, but the increase was regional and phased [12]. - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 monitored provinces decreased by 28% year - on - year, reaching a new low since June 2018 [13]. - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the State Administration for Market Regulation have taken measures to address food safety issues exposed by the "3.15" Gala [13]. - China will implement zero - tariff measures for all African diplomatic countries starting from May 1, 2026 [13]. Financial News Open Market - This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [14]. - On March 27, the central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan [14]. Key News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, with the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran increasing its counter - attacks [16]. - The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and there are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US [17]. - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and corporate earnings announcements [18]. - The State Council emphasizes the development of the service industry and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [19]. - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly, especially in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [19]. - The People's Bank of China requires the improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [20]. - China's foreign exchange market shows strong resilience, and the RMB exchange rate remains stable [20]. - China and the EU agree to set up a trade and investment working group and continue dialogue on export control [20]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launches two trade barrier investigations against the US [21]. - Some banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, and bond ETFs have become a safe - haven for investors [21]. - Energy price increases have led to stagflation expectations, hitting the stock, bond, and gold markets, and investors are flocking to cash [22]. - Some companies have bond - related events, such as default and regulatory measures [22]. - Some companies' credit ratings have changed [23]. Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market is slightly bullish, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds declining, but the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract closed down [24]. - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [25]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term varieties also decreased [25][26]. - The winning bid rate of the Import - Export Bank's 3 - year fixed - rate bond was 1.5045% [26]. - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [28]. Research Report Highlights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages, and recommends sticking to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29][30]. - Citic Securities believes that the long - term demand for bank self - operated funds in exchange - traded corporate bonds and ABS products is unlikely to change fundamentally [30]. - Citic Securities expects the Strait of Hormuz's passing capacity to partially recover, which may drive up oil shipping prices and increase the profits of oil shipping companies in 2026 [30]. - Tianfeng Fixed - Income believes that there is no need to overly worry about large banks selling ultra - long - term bonds in March, and their buying power may increase in April [30]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit bond curve showed a bull - steep trend in March, and the end - of - quarter adjustment may be a good investment opportunity [30]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, focusing on serving new - quality productivity, building a "long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [33]. Today's Reminders - On March 30, 263 bonds will be listed, 60 bonds will be issued, 113 bonds will be paid, and 653 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [31][32].

Report Summary - In 2025, China's total bauxite imports were 200 million tons, with 150 million tons imported from Guinea, accounting for 75%. Guinea's exports in 2025 were 183 million tons, a year-on-year increase of over 25%, and exports to China accounted for 81% of total exports [4]. - In 2025, China consumed 180 million tons of imported bauxite, with the consumption of imported ore accounting for 72%. As of February 2026, the consumption ratio of imported bauxite had increased to 75%. In 2026, with the launch of new production capacity in Guangxi, the consumption of imported ore will continue to increase, and it is expected to reach 200 million tons [4][22]. - Based on China's bauxite imports in 2025, the supply and demand of imported ore will be in static balance in 2026, and port inventories will remain unchanged. However, due to the increase in consumption, the available days will decline, and there may be a shortage of raw material reserves for newly - added alumina production capacity. Therefore, the actual spot market will show a supply shortage. If Guinea restricts bauxite exports to less than 180 million tons, it will likely lead to a clear shortage of bauxite supply [4][22]. - Calculated at an imported bauxite price of $70 per ton, the marginal highest cash cost of producing alumina in China using imported ore is about 2,650 yuan per ton. The current market spot transaction price is 2,800 - 2,850 yuan per ton, meaning that enterprises still have a cash - flow profit of over 150 yuan per ton. The oversupply situation restricts the upward movement of alumina prices [5][25]. - The oversupply pattern of alumina may need to squeeze the profits of alumina plants from the cost side, causing them to actively carry out maintenance and reduce production. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Guinea's ore - restriction policy, which will trigger an upward cycle in the FOB price of bauxite. Since the increase in alumina sales prices lags behind, the oversupply pattern of alumina can be changed, opening up room for price increases [5][31]. Freight Fluctuations Squeeze FOB Price, Forcing Guinea Policy Disturbance - On February 28, 2026, the US - Iran war started. The Brent crude oil price soared from $70 per barrel to a peak of $110 per barrel. The freight for bauxite transported from Guinea to China increased from $23.5 per ton to $31.5 per ton, a rise of $8 per ton. In the context of an oversupply of bauxite and a continuous increase in shipping volume over the years, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite in China only increased from $60 per ton to $66.5 per ton, and the transaction situation was rather stalemate. The CIF price in China was pushed up by freight, but the increase was less than the rise in freight, forcing the FOB price of Guinea to bear pressure, which may prompt Guinea to introduce substantial policies to reverse the supply situation [12]. - The FOB price of Guinea bauxite dropped from a high of $75 per ton at the beginning of 2025 to the current $35 per ton. At the same time, Guinea's exports in 2025 soared to 183 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 25%. This situation of increasing volume but decreasing price has put Guinea, which mainly relies on selling minerals for income, in a dilemma of increasing volume but not increasing revenue [12]. - In the past 1 - 2 years, Guinea has taken actions in the bauxite field. It revoked the mining license of Emirates Aluminium for failing to fulfill the commitment to build an alumina plant and transferred it to a Guinean state - owned enterprise. It also revoked the mining licenses of 51 mining companies, including the Axis mine (the Axis mine has since resumed operation), for reasons such as non - operation, under - utilization of mines, and failure to fulfill the obligation to build processing plants. The ultimate goal is to "force" mining enterprises to build alumina plants in Guinea. It requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag and established a state - owned shipping company to control the profits in the logistics link. By launching the "Guinea Bauxite Price Index (GBX)", it challenges the existing international pricing system and tries to gain more power in transportation and pricing. This is a typical practice of "resource nationalism", aiming to transform resource advantages into economic sovereignty and development impetus [13]. Impact of Export Restrictions - On March 12, the Guinean government began discussions with the mining association to control the market ore supply to prevent price drops and avoid a reduction in enterprise income and government tax revenue. It is expected that the reduced export volume will be clarified in early April. Although it is not a strict quota system, the total export volume will be reduced, and a full - scale export ban is excluded. A large Guinean bauxite enterprise suspended the operation of an excavator at the end of March, reducing the daily output by about 9,000 tons. This seems to indicate that Guinea can increase national fiscal revenue and enterprise profits by restricting export volume to raise prices. Driven by this common interest, the government and enterprises have the same goal, which helps the effective implementation of the policy [18]. - China has a rigid demand for imported bauxite, and with the commissioning of new production capacity in Guangxi, the demand for imported ore is still increasing. Although non - mainstream mining areas such as Australia, Sierra Leone, Guyana, and Turkey can increase the bauxite supply, Guinea's high supply ratio is difficult to replace, and policy disturbances cannot be ignored. The impact of Guinea's ore - restriction policy will play a decisive role [18]. Alumina Static Supply Remains Oversupplied - In the first quarter, an alumina plant in Hebei reduced production by 2 million tons due to indicator issues, and the weekly alumina production declined from its high level. However, from the perspective of static balance, the oversupply pattern has not been reversed. Due to disturbances such as anti - involution, crude oil freight, and Guinea policy expectations, the alumina futures price rebounded from the bottom and has been at a long - term premium to the spot price. The risk - free selling and delivery profit has locked most of the spot in the form of warehouse receipts, and the inter - month spread in the futures market also supports risk - free positive arbitrage. As a result, the oversupply is not reflected in the spot market, and the spot market price has risen firmly [24]. - Calculated at an imported bauxite price of $70 per ton, the marginal highest cash cost of producing alumina in China using imported ore is about 2,650 yuan per ton. The current market spot transaction price is 2,800 - 2,850 yuan per ton, meaning that enterprises still have a cash - flow profit of over 150 yuan per ton. It is still too early for alumina plants to actively reduce production, and the oversupply situation restricts the upward movement of alumina prices [25]. Short - Term Oil Price Interference, Long - Term Cost Boosts Alumina Price Center of Gravity Upward - For the long - term bauxite pricing in the second quarter, it may be a fixed Guinea FOB price plus fluctuating sea freight. Currently, calculated at a cost of $70 per ton (FOB $38 per ton), the corresponding marginal minimum price in the futures market is 2,700 yuan per ton. Therefore, the short - term fluctuation of the alumina futures price is significantly affected by the crude oil price. That is, the expectation of a decline in freight caused by a drop in the crude oil price weakens the short - term cost support [30]. - The current alumina spot price is at par with the futures price at about 2,800 - 2,850 yuan per ton. As mentioned above, the spot market does not show oversupply. Although there are pressures from warehouse receipts and inventories, the spot price is temporarily firm. If the crude oil price fluctuation causes the futures price to fall, after the futures premium narrows, the spot price will support the futures price. If the futures price drops below the spot price, it will digest the warehouse receipt pressure and still support the price [30]. - Under the current static oversupply pattern of alumina, with high inventory pressure and alumina plants still having cash profits, it is difficult to open up room for alumina price increases, and it is not cost - effective to chase up alumina prices. However, since Guinea's policy is expected to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation of bauxite, the previous low - point support of the alumina futures price is effective. Alumina prices can be considered for long - position layout at low prices and wait for the impact of bauxite to ferment [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, alumina is expected to be strong due to cost and supply support. However, in the long - term, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina due to a large number of new domestic and foreign production capacities to be put into operation [2][6] - The price of imported ore is expected to continue rising, and the cost support for alumina is constantly increasing. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term as some domestic production has been cut and new production capacities have not yet reached full capacity [2][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract last week was 3,041 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market on Friday was 2,752 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week [4] - The price of Australian alumina FOB increased from 297 to 320 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased from 85.12 to - 73.21 yuan/ton [3] - The inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts last Friday was 414,000 tons, an increase of 14,971 tons from the previous week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 2,700 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons [2][4][6] 3.2 Market Review - In the bauxite market, the domestic bauxite market still has a low operating rate of inland mines. The price of imported ore may continue to rise and may exceed 70 US dollars/ton. Attention should be paid to Guinea's policy on bauxite export volume [4] - On the supply side, the production of alumina enterprises is relatively stable. As of March 26, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 89 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.14% [4] - On the consumption side, the production of the electrolytic aluminum industry continues to show a slight increase, and there is no production reduction or resumption. The new production capacity of an enterprise in Inner Mongolia is still being put into operation, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the ore segment, Guinea's Ministry of Mines has spoken again about reducing bauxite export volume, and the probability of reduction is high, but the quantity has not been determined [2][6] - On the supply side, the operating capacity of alumina is currently stable. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the maintenance plan of a Guizhou alumina plant at the end of the month, and the operating capacity of alumina may decline slightly in the short term [2][6] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises purchase alumina as needed. There is a large amount of spot delivery, and the circulating supply is tight [2][6] 3.4 Industry News - On March 24, Guinea's Mining Minister Bouna Syla said that they will reduce bauxite export volume to create more fiscal revenue for the country and ensure the sustainable operation of mining operators [7] - From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 441,400 tons of alumina and exported a total of 334,500 tons, with a net import of 106,900 tons [7] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, steam coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [8][10][13][15][17][18][21]

1. Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View - The price of alumina is affected by multiple factors. Although the oversupply situation has slightly eased, the cost of alumina production has increased due to the rising prices of related raw materials. However, the expected reduction in electrolytic aluminum production in the Middle East will impact global alumina demand. Overall, the alumina market still has a significant over - capacity, but the rising cost provides support for the futures price under the influence of the Middle East conflict [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week, with the ex - works含税 price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi at 628 yuan and in Henan at 610 yuan/ton. Inland mine开工率 is still low, and the resumption of some mines is slow. For imports, the CIF price of Guinean ore at $70/ton has low acceptance from downstream. The Guinean government changed its statement to reducing overall export volume. 4.071 million tons of new ore arrived, including 3.368 million tons from Guinea and 0.534 million tons from Australia. The freight for Cape - type ships on the Guinea - China route is $31/ton [2][9] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina continued to rise last week, but the increase narrowed. The northern comprehensive price of ALD is 2760 - 2800 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index is 2788 yuan/ton, up 15.7 yuan/ton. The port quotation of imported alumina is 2730 - 2780 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Most traders are cautious in selling and reluctant to sell at low prices. In the import market, the spot trading activity overseas increased, with 4 spot transactions reported and prices rising. The theoretical import cost to Chinese ports rose to about 2864 yuan/ton. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2660 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 102 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, some southern alumina enterprises entered the overhaul stage, and some northern enterprises increased their production loads, but the total operating capacity did not change significantly. The total built - in capacity of alumina in China is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 81.8% [3][10] - **Demand**: Domestically, Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum started the resumption of production, planning to resume 300,000 tons and complete the resumption in May, with the current operating capacity increasing to 490,000 tons. The second - phase project of Huomei Hongjun Zha Aluminum resumed production to 1 million tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4.4573 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas, the expansion project of Balco electrolytic aluminum plant under India's Vedanta is slowly being put into production, with the current operating capacity at 840,000 tons. The San Ciprián aluminum plant in Spain is gradually resuming production, with the current operating capacity reaching 205,000 tons and full production expected in the middle of the year. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 2.938 million tons [11] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory last week was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises fluctuated slightly, with increases and decreases in the north and south, showing a slight overall increase. The bagged inventory of alumina plants maintained normal shipments, with slight regional fluctuations and the total remaining the same as last week. The instantaneous re - export of bagged alumina had a short - term significant impact on the inventory changes of some ports. The import of foreign - trade alumina in northern ports remained at a certain scale, while the domestic - trade alumina decreased relatively. The inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/delivery warehouses continued to increase [11] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 416,774 tons, an increase of 24,587 tons from last week [12] 3.2 Key News Summary - **Damage to UAE Global Aluminum's Facility**: UAE Global Aluminum's AITaweelah facility in Abu Dhabi's Khalifa Economic Zone was severely damaged during an attack by Iranian missiles and drones. Multiple employees were injured but none were in life - threatening condition. The company said it would resume operations as soon as possible. The AITaweelah aluminum complex consists of an alumina plant with a built - in capacity of 2.45 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with a built - in capacity of 1.5 million tons [13] - **Rise in Alumina Import Cost**: The FOB price of Australian alumina rose from $310/ton to $320/ton, and the theoretical import cost to Chinese ports rose to about 2864 yuan/ton (last week's estimated import cost was about 2684 yuan/ton), higher than the average price of 2780 yuan/ton in the northern region, indicating no short - term import profit [13] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [14][16][18] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes data on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [29][31][32] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided [40][43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton due to rising shipping costs. The export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon. The operating capacity of alumina has increased by 50,000 tons to 93.75 million tons, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 5.379 million tons. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 30,000 tons to 44.786 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually affecting the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown. On the demand side, the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 1.1% to 64%. Downstream operations are gradually picking up, entering the peak season rhythm, but demand is also suppressed by the sharp fluctuations in high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for a turning point. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover. Due to concerns about supply, aluminum prices are expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to fundamentally resolve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, some long - term agreement prices are linked to oil prices, and the sharp increase in shipping costs, combined with Guinea's plan to restrict bauxite exports, has pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. According to ALD, the export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the Guinean Ministry of Mines has held talks with relevant mining enterprises, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 89.7%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,788 yuan per ton, an increase of 15.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. National alumina enterprises are operating relatively stably. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The second phase of a large alumina plant in Hebei is in a state of full shutdown at the roasting end due to policy influence. Currently, the group is accelerating the construction progress of the second and third phases of the roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan, with an expected construction period of 7 - 9 months. Guinean officials said they will restrict bauxite exports, but the measures are expected to be relatively mild, and alumina is expected to show a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.462 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.786 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts at European aluminum plants. In terms of new production capacity, 350,000 tons of Zha Aluminum are under construction, and the second phase of 80,000 tons of Tianshan Aluminum is still under construction. In terms of resuming production, 300,000 tons of Liaoning Zhongwang have started to resume production, and Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity. Overseas, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola is under construction and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is under construction; the Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons that has been shut down; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of the Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland will start to resume production at the end of April, six months earlier than originally planned; two major aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown; Qatar Aluminum has decided to stop further production cuts and will maintain an operating level of about 60%; the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique has entered a maintenance and maintenance state [20]. 3.5 Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [24][25][26][27]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The weekly average operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 59.5%. Some downstream enterprises still face profit pressure, and some die - casting enterprises exporting to the Middle East are facing transportation obstacles. They mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand and have a weak willingness to stock up. The recovery rhythm of the demand peak season is lower than expected, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, production enthusiasm is not high, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover [30]. 3.7 Downstream Operations - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1% to 64%. - Aluminum profiles: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 4% to 59%. In the industrial profile sector, the demand in new energy fields such as automobiles and batteries has been good recently, driving up the operating rate of relevant enterprises; orders related to electricity such as power pipelines and transformers have performed well. In the construction profile sector, the decline in aluminum prices has provided some boost to the construction market demand, and downstream orders have increased month - on - month. - Aluminum strips: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises increased by 1% to 71%. The aluminum strip market has been stable, and leading enterprises have been producing steadily. In terms of terminal consumption, the downstream demand for energy storage has been continuously strong, and the capacity utilization rate of leading battery cell enterprises has been at a high level, providing support for aluminum strip materials such as battery casings and brazing materials related to energy storage. - Aluminum cables: The weekly average operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66%. Currently, it is a critical period for power grid construction material preparation. Coupled with the accelerated implementation of UHV and power transmission and transformation projects, the characteristics of the peak demand season in the industry are prominent. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, the delivery rhythm is tight, and the supply - tight pattern continues. The promotion rhythm of major projects this year has accelerated, with the start of the ±800 kV UHV project from Inner Mongolia West to Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and the resumption of the 1000 kV project from Datong to Huailai to Tianjin South, as well as the intensive promotion of 500 kV and 200 kV power transmission and transformation projects. - Primary aluminum alloy: The weekly average operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.8% to 55%. Terminal consumption has maintained a moderate growth. After the previous inventory has been digested to a certain extent, production enterprises are gradually and steadily increasing their operating levels and increasing output to deliver long - term orders [38][43][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to impact aluminum supply, with expectations of further production cuts. Demand is gradually recovering as the market transitions into the peak season, but the inventory turning point is still awaited. The domestic aluminum oxide production capacity is on a downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors and rising costs, which are driving up aluminum oxide prices. Long-term, the aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of March 27, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3284.5 per ton, up $92.5 from the previous week, a 2.9% week-on-week increase, and up $677.5 year-on-year, a 26.0% increase [23] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 23935.0 yuan per ton, down 85.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.4% week-on-week decrease, and up 3215.0 yuan year-on-year, a 15.5% increase [23] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 23870.0 yuan per ton, down 160.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.7% week-on-week decrease, and up 3190.0 yuan year-on-year, a 15.4% increase [23] 2. Production - In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum production was 346.0 million tons, a decrease of 33.9 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 12.0 million tons year-on-year, a 3.6% increase [53] - The aluminum oxide production in February 2026 was 660.0 million tons, down 78.5 million tons month-on-month, and down 33.5 million tons year-on-year, a 4.8% decrease [53] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Hongqiao Holdings, China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026 are as follows: - Hongqiao Holdings: 2.49 yuan - China Hongqiao: 3.34 yuan - Tianshan Aluminum: 1.28 yuan - Shenhuo Co.: 2.56 yuan - China Aluminum: 0.92 yuan - Yun Aluminum: 2.07 yuan [6] 4. Inventory - As of March 26, the domestic main consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was reported at 1.349 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [8] - The aluminum rod inventory in the main consumption area was 341,500 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a steady acceleration in the destocking trend [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - In 2025, the company reported a decrease in primary aluminum production by 1.9% to 3.918 million tons, while alumina production increased by 6.7% to 6.858 million tons, and bauxite production rose by 16.2% to 18.453 million tons [2][7] - The average selling price of aluminum was $2,652 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The company achieved a revenue of $14.812 billion, marking a 22.6% year-on-year growth [4][8] - The adjusted EBITDA for the year was $1.053 billion, a decrease of 29.5% compared to the previous year [5][8] - The net profit for the reporting period was -$787 million, down from a profit of $983 million in the previous year [5][8] Production and Operational Data - Bauxite production in 2025 was 18.453 million tons, up 16.2% from the previous year [2][7] - Alumina production reached 6.858 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year [2][7] - Primary aluminum production totaled 3.918 million tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to the previous year [2][7] - The external sales volume of primary aluminum and alloys was 4.490 million tons, reflecting a 16.4% increase [2][7] Financial Performance - The company's total assets increased to $25.056 billion, up 12.9% from the previous year [5][8] - The net debt rose to $8.054 billion, a 25.5% increase year-on-year [5][8] - The gross profit for the year was $2.558 billion, down from $2.821 billion in the previous year [5] - The adjusted net profit margin was -5.3%, compared to 8.1% in the previous year [8]