专题报告 2025-12-30 氧化铝：持续反弹还需越过几重山？ 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 2025 年 12 月 26 日，五国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，文章中提到对氧 化铝和铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，市场对氧化铝后市供给收缩政策落地预期提高，期货价格 大幅反弹。但持续反弹仍面临三重困境：过剩的冶炼端、成本支撑下移和到期仓单交割压力。 展望后市，氧化铝持续反弹仍需关注强有力供给端收缩政策落地、几内亚政府推出铝土矿 挺价政策、到期仓单得到充分消化。短期建议观望为主，追多性价比不高，若未见现实端减产 动作，可以等待机会逢高布局近月空单。国内主力合约 AO2602 参考运行区间：2400-2900 元/ 吨，需重点关注国内供应端政策、几内亚矿石政策。 王梓铧 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 核心观点：价格持续反弹仍面临三重压力，关注国内外政策变动 有色金属研究 | 氧化铝 1、冶炼端关注国内政策落地 202 ...

据市场机构报告称，近几年，几内亚作为我国铝土矿第一大供应国，进口量呈现持续增长趋势。出口方 面，几内亚铝土矿2021年至2025年，产量将增长9.55%，出口将增长12.07%，受新企业进入该国铝土矿 生产以及现有投资和产能增加的影响，到2025年底，几内亚铝土矿产能有望达到1.957亿吨。值得一提 的是，今年5月几内亚过渡总统宣布收回采矿证，若与相关企业关于氧化铝产能建设谈判不及预期，撤 销采矿权事件可能继续升级。 中铝国际（601068）(02068)午前涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.49%，报2.67港元，成交额3341.04万港元。 消息面上，近日，从中铝几内亚博法项目传来捷报，2025年度铝土矿装船量突破2000万吨大关，刷新了 该公司海外铝土矿供应纪录。这一成就标志着该项目运营能力实现新提升，进一步增强了中铝集团战略 资源保障能力，为集团高质量发展提供了有力支撑。 ...

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 6年前，一家欧洲初创企业研发出一项突破性技术，能够将曾被视为废料的低品位铝土矿转化为铝生产 所需的优质原料。 这项创新不仅有望盘活枯竭矿山，更为提取半导体、电动汽车及国防领域必需的关键矿产与稀土元素打 开了一扇新大门。 最早，这项技术在美国迈阿密的一场行业会议上对外公布。彼时，从华盛顿到布鲁塞尔，西方多国政府 都大肆炒作"对华依赖"，频频疾呼重振脆弱的供应链，外界本以为这项欧洲发明会率先在欧美落地。 然而，整整6年，欧美官员虽忙于频繁召开峰会、发布政策声明，呼吁关键矿产生产回流，却迟迟未见 实质性进展，连项目雏形的影子都没看到。 更具戏剧性的是，这项被视为"摆脱对华依赖"希望的技术，最后反倒在中国建成了全球首个规模化应用 的工业园区。 而且，从开工到投产，仅仅耗时10个月。 "中国以闪电速度，已悄然推进相关布局。"据香港《南华早报》10日报道，在山西传统煤炭产区柳林 县，由法瑞合资企业宜比拓（IB2）与山西森泽能源科技集团合作的铝土矿废渣综合利用项目，已迅速 完成了工程设计、许可、建设和调试，并于11月正式投产，这也标志着这项革命性脱硅技术在全球范围 内首次实现规模化应用。 报道指出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 11, 2025, the Simandou project held a grand commissioning ceremony. The first shipment of iron ore by the Weltrade fleet marked the full completion and official operation of the world - class Simandou mining and infrastructure integration project [6][11][49]. - Guinea is rich in mineral resources, especially bauxite and iron ore. The Simandou iron ore is the world's largest undeveloped high - grade iron ore with great potential. Its proven resources are about 5 billion tons, and the total resource is estimated to reach 10 billion tons [6][12][49]. - The commissioning of the Simandou project, led by domestic funds, will impact the global iron ore supply pattern. In the early stage of production ramp - up, the incremental contribution is limited. The combined output of the north and south blocks is expected to reach 20 million tons in 2026, and approach 80 million tons in 2028. The north and south blocks are conservatively estimated to reach full production in 2029 and 2030 respectively. The new capacity release may lead to lower prices, and the project is unlikely to impact the four major miners but may squeeze the share of non - mainstream miners with medium - high costs [7][36][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Guinea's Rich Mineral Resources - Guinea, located in western Africa, is known as a "geological miracle" with rich minerals. In 2024, its GDP was $25.76 billion, with a 6% year - on - year increase. The mining industry accounted for 25% [12]. - Guinea is the world's second - largest bauxite exporter. In 2024, its bauxite reserves reached 7.4 billion tons, about 1/4 of the global total. In 2023, its bauxite production was 122.9918 million tons (up 19% year - on - year), and exports were 126.5877 million tons (up 24% year - on - year). Many international mining companies have invested in Guinea [13]. - Guinea also has abundant iron ore resources, with proven reserves of 19.9 billion tons in 2018 and an iron grade of 56% - 65%. Well - known iron ore projects include Simandou, Zogota, and Monts Nimba [14]. - China - Guinea economic and trade cooperation has deepened. China is Guinea's largest export destination and import source. By June 2025, there were 114 Chinese - funded enterprises in Guinea, mainly in the mining industry. In the first half of 2025, Chinese - funded enterprises contributed 96.2% of the incremental bauxite shipments. Chinese enterprises are also involved in engineering construction and infrastructure operation in Guinea [20][21][22]. 3.2 Basic Information of the Simandou Iron Ore Project - The Simandou mountain range in Guinea is rich in iron ore. The Simandou Iron Ore Project consists of the north block (mining areas 1&2) and the south block (mining areas 3&4), with a total resource of over 4.6 billion tons [23][25][26]. - The north block is jointly developed by the Winning Consortium (WCS) and Baowu Resources Group, with iron ore reserves of over 1.8 billion tons and an iron grade of about 65.5%. The south block is led by Simfer, with participation from Rio Tinto and China Aluminum Iron Ore Holdings, and has reserves of about 2.8 billion tons and an iron grade of 65.5% [26][27]. - The Simandou project's infrastructure includes a railway system over 600 kilometers long and a dual - hub port system. By September 2025, the SimFer port was in the final equipment commissioning stage, with an annual shipping capacity of 65 million tons [30][31]. - The Simandou ore is mainly hematite, with high grade and low impurities. The average iron grade is 65.5%, and the average aluminum and silicon contents are below 3% and 2% respectively. However, as the mining depth increases, the main mineral components will change, which may affect costs in the long term [34][35]. 3.3 Analysis of the Impact of Simandou's Commissioning on Iron Ore Supply - Although the Simandou project was successfully commissioned in November 2025, its current impact is more symbolic, and the incremental supply may not exceed 1 million tons. It is expected to gradually release production capacity during the 14th Five - Year Plan period. The combined output of the north and south blocks is expected to reach 20 million tons in 2026 and approach 80 million tons in 2028 [36]. - The Simandou project is expected to break the current pattern dominated by Australia and Brazil and form a new supply pattern of "Australia - Brazil - Africa". It also helps improve domestic resource supply security [41]. - New capacity release may lead to price decline. Referring to FMG's history, the new capacity of Simandou is unlikely to impact the four major miners but may squeeze the share of non - mainstream miners with medium - high costs, making the overall ore supply more abundant and testing the cost support of non - mainstream miners [41][42]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Simandou project was officially put into operation on November 11, 2025. Guinea is rich in mineral resources, and the Simandou iron ore has great advantages [49]. - The commissioning of the Simandou project will affect the global iron ore supply pattern. The output will gradually increase in the future, and the new capacity may lead to price decline and squeeze the share of non - mainstream miners [50].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that China's bauxite imports in September 2025 reached 15.88 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 13.2% but a year-on-year increase of 37.5% [1] - Guinea remains the largest supplier of bauxite to China, with shipments in September declining by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons [1] - The decrease in shipments from Guinea is attributed to the rainy season in July and August, which affected mining operations and led to a drop in delivery volumes [1]

Group 1 - Guinea's bauxite exports surged by 23% year-on-year in Q3, reaching 39.41 million tons, despite challenges from heavy rainfall and regulatory hurdles [1] - The average monthly shipment volume for Q3 was 13.14 million tons, which is nearly a 19% decrease compared to the first half of the year due to disruptions in mining and port operations [1] - China accounted for 54.6% of Guinea's bauxite exports in Q3, with Guinea supplying about one-third of China's bauxite imports [1] Group 2 - The long-delayed Simandou iron ore project is set to make its first shipment, primarily of high-grade ore destined for China [1] - In Q3 2025, Guinea exported only 78,000 tons of alumina, as the government increased pressure on miners to build alumina refineries domestically [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guinea is emerging as a significant player in the global commodity market, particularly in bauxite and iron ore supply, with the potential to influence pricing trends in these sectors due to its resource endowment and ongoing projects like the Simandou iron ore project [2][6]. Natural Conditions - Guinea has abundant mineral resources, particularly bauxite and iron ore, with distinct wet and dry seasons affecting production and transportation [3][9]. - The country experiences significant seasonal variations in rainfall, impacting the shipping volumes of bauxite during the rainy season [12][13]. Infrastructure - Guinea's infrastructure, including electricity and transportation, is underdeveloped, posing challenges for mining operations [15][16]. - The country has a limited road network primarily consisting of unpaved roads, which can hinder transportation during the rainy season [18]. Policy Environment - The Guinean government has shown a trend towards resource protectionism, increasing control over the mining sector and emphasizing local processing [25][26]. - Recent policy changes have aimed to enhance government control over mining operations while still promoting foreign investment [32][33]. Iron Ore - The Simandou iron ore project is set to significantly alter the global iron ore supply landscape, with an estimated total resource of approximately 1.99 billion tons [4][39]. - The project is expected to increase China's iron ore self-sufficiency from less than 3% to 6-8% upon full production [4]. Bauxite - Guinea is the world's largest bauxite producer, with a projected supply of 77% of global maritime bauxite in 2024 [2][6]. - The country maintains a favorable bauxite production ratio, indicating strong potential for continued output growth [5][10]. Economic Impact - Mining is a critical pillar of Guinea's economy, contributing 25% to GDP, with significant growth in export revenues driven by bauxite [28][29]. - The influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the mining sector has been stable, contributing to infrastructure development and economic resilience [28][29]. Logistics and Transportation - Guinea's logistics rely heavily on maritime transshipment due to inadequate port facilities, necessitating the use of smaller vessels for transporting minerals [22][24]. - The upcoming Maribaya port is expected to enhance the export capacity for iron ore, with a projected throughput of 60 million tons annually [23]. Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in bauxite and iron ore production from Guinea is expected to exert downward pressure on global prices, with projections indicating a gradual decline in price levels over the next few years [5][42]. - The government's push for local processing of minerals may lead to increased operational costs and potential supply constraints in the future [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The visit by Wang Hui, the counselor, to the Bofa bauxite mine in Guinea emphasizes the importance of safety production management in mining operations [1] Group 1: Safety Management - Wang Hui inspected various areas of the bauxite mine, including the mining area, stockpile, and control room, highlighting the need for detailed safety management [1] - The meeting with representatives from three mining companies and Yifeng Shipping stressed that safety production is the top priority for enterprises [1] - Company leaders agreed on the necessity to refine safety management and enhance safety responsibility awareness to ensure safe project operations [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a significant turnaround in underlying performance year on year, with record first half shipments of 1,900,000 tonnes and an underlying EBITDA of $23 million [2][8] - The results included a reversal of impairment and recognition of tax losses, indicating a change in the company's risk profile and confidence in future earnings [4][6][7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has focused on improving operational consistency and addressing interface issues in its production processes, which has led to increased production levels [14][16] - The operational focus has shifted towards achieving a consistent output of around 30,000 tonnes per day, which is essential for reaching the targeted annual capacity of 7,000,000 tonnes [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The strong pricing environment has supported the company's financial performance, contributing to positive operating cash flow in the first half of the year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve increased output in 2026, with a focus on continuous improvement in all areas of the business and leveraging core competencies in logistics and marketing [20][23] - There are plans for potential inorganic growth opportunities, although the company will proceed cautiously and within set limits [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the second half of the year, traditionally the most productive period, and highlighted the momentum carried into this period [9] - The management emphasized the importance of the recent accounting adjustments as indicators of a paradigm shift in the company's risk profile and future confidence [6][7] Other Important Information - The company has been addressing operational challenges and has made investments to improve production facilities, which are expected to yield positive results moving forward [14][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the progress that the company has made on its ramp up to 7,000,000 tonnes per annual capacity? - Management confirmed satisfaction with the growth, noting improvements in production consistency and addressing previous operational issues [13][17] Question: What is the outlook for Metro in 2026 and what does the growth strategy mean for investors and shareholders? - Management highlighted the focus on increasing output, continuous improvement, and exploring inorganic growth opportunities while maintaining a cautious approach [18][20][22]

Metro Mining (MMI) Conference Summary Company Overview - Metro Mining is a Brisbane-based bauxite explorer and producer, operating the Bauxite Hills mine near Weipa in Queensland, Australia, with a focus on low-cost, high-grade bauxite production [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - Bauxite is essential for producing alumina, which in turn is used to make aluminum, a material integral to various industries including electric vehicles and power generation [2][3] - The company has a simple and efficient operational model, producing a Direct Shipping Ore (DSO) product without the need for extensive upgrading [4] - Metro Mining has approximately 11 years of reserves at its current site and an additional 50 million tonnes of resources nearby, indicating significant growth potential [5] - The company aims to be the lowest cost bauxite producer globally, with a target of delivering bauxite at $30 per tonne into the China market [12] Production and Financial Performance - The production capacity has increased from a 2 million tonne run rate four years ago to a guidance of 6.5 to 7 million tonnes for the current year [6] - In the previous year, the company produced 5.7 million tonnes, achieving margins of $18 per tonne and repaying nearly $40 million in debt [7] - The site EBITDA for the last quarter was $54 million, supported by a margin of $32 per tonne [8] Market Dynamics - The bauxite market is experiencing record trade volumes, particularly with China, which has seen increased imports [9] - Guinea and Australia are the two major suppliers of bauxite, with Guinea facing instability due to political issues and weather conditions, leading to a decrease in export capacity [10][11] - The cost of bauxite production in Guinea has risen significantly, which is expected to push prices higher in the market [12] Future Outlook - Metro Mining plans to increase its production capacity further and is exploring additional leases to extend its mine life [13] - The company aims to achieve zero net debt by the end of the current quarter, allowing for potential capital management strategies, including dividends [14] - The company has a strong commitment to local communities, with over 30% indigenous employment and significant contributions to the local economy [15][16] Management and Investment Potential - The management team is experienced, with backgrounds in major companies like Rio Tinto and Glencore, providing stability and expertise [17][18] - The company's share price has increased by approximately 45% over the past year, indicating strong market performance and potential for further growth [19] - Metro Mining is positioned to benefit from ongoing price spikes in the bauxite market due to supply constraints from Guinea [20] Conclusion - Metro Mining is well-positioned in the bauxite market with a strong operational model, significant growth potential, and a commitment to community engagement, making it an attractive investment opportunity moving forward [21]