Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector is experiencing a strong rally, driven by concerns over tightening global supply of electrolytic aluminum due to production disruptions and limited capacity growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, China Aluminum (601600)(02600) has risen by 10.99% to HKD 10.91, while China Hongqiao (01378) has increased by 9.83% to HKD 32.4 [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Century Aluminum announced a production reduction at its Grundartangi smelter due to a malfunction, affecting a capacity of 200,000 tons [1] - South32 indicated that its Mozal smelter may undergo maintenance due to power supply issues, potentially leading to a shutdown by March 2026, impacting a capacity of 500,000 tons [1] - CITIC Securities suggests a high probability of the Mozal shutdown, which could have significant implications for the aluminum industry, similar to the Cobre Panama situation [1] Group 3: Demand and Price Outlook - Huatai Securities notes that domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its ceiling, and they have analyzed potential overseas projects, estimating a global supply growth rate of only 1.9% for next year, a significant slowdown compared to the 2024/2025 period [1] - The demand side is expected to grow at approximately 2.3% next year, driven by a recovery in global manufacturing, leading to an overall supply-demand gap projected to widen to 800,000 tons [1] - Global LME aluminum prices are anticipated to rise above USD 3,200 per ton next year due to these dynamics [1]