铯铷盐需求增长
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东兴证券:消费结构改善叠加新兴需求爆发 全球铯铷盐需求曲线或持续右移
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 01:48
Core Viewpoint - The global cesium and rubidium salt market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply and demand expected to rise simultaneously. The supply side is driven by the expansion of cesium and rubidium salt production by companies like Zhongjin Resources and Jinyinhai, while demand is fueled by the upgrading of consumption structure and emerging applications in various sectors [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The projected global supply of cesium and rubidium salts from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 2210 tons, 3135 tons, and 4550 tons respectively, while demand is forecasted to be 2446 tons, 3166 tons, and 4600 tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance of -256 tons, -30 tons, and -50 tons for the respective years [1]. - The supply of rubidium is currently limited, with a global production cap of no more than 40 tons in 2024, which constrains market demand and application development [2][5]. Consumption Structure - In 2020, the global cesium consumption was 2400 tons, with the United States (960 tons, 40%), China (800 tons, 33%), and Japan (300 tons, 14%) being the top consumers. The U.S. primarily uses cesium in high-tech sectors, while China's consumption is still heavily weighted towards traditional applications [2]. - The demand for cesium in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a total demand of 1016 tons by 2025, a 27% increase from 2020 [3]. Emerging Demand Drivers - The demand for cesium and rubidium salts is expected to surge due to new applications such as perovskite solar cells, with a projected increase in demand from 110 tons in 2025 to 4428 tons by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 109% [4]. - The improvement in rubidium supply and its application in high-tech fields is anticipated to significantly boost rubidium market demand, with its consumption expected to rise from 40 tons in 2025 to 984 tons by 2027 [5]. Growth Projections - The total demand for cesium and rubidium salts is projected to grow from 2466 tons in 2025 to 4600 tons in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 36.6% [5]. - The increase in demand is attributed to three main factors: upgrading of existing consumption structures, emerging demands from new technologies, and improvements in rubidium supply [5].