2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 本期编辑 | 分析师：刘嘉玮 | | | --- | --- | | 010-66554043 | liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519050001 | 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002074.SZ | 国轩高科 | | 002850.SZ | 科达利 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 600012.SH | 皖通高速 | | 600176.SH | 中国巨石 | | 605123.SH | 派克新材 | | 688103.SH | 国力电子 | | 688111.SH | 金山办公 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 重要公司资讯 数据来源：《十月金股汇》 2025 年 09 月 29 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 1. 北交所：自 ...

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Group 1 - The report from Dongxing Securities focuses on the development of the cesium and rubidium industry, analyzing resource characteristics, market demand, supply-demand patterns, and key enterprises to provide investment references for the industry [1] - Cesium and rubidium are rare light metals with scarce resources and high extraction difficulty. The global supply of cesium is expected to be less than 40 tons in 2024, with prices reaching 4 million yuan per ton [1][2] - The global demand for cesium and rubidium is clearly on the rise, driven by three main factors: consumption structure upgrades in China, the explosive demand from perovskite solar cells, and improvements in rubidium supply [2][9] Group 2 - In 2020, global cesium consumption was 2,400 tons, with the United States (960 tons, 40%), China (800 tons, 33%), and Japan (300 tons, 14%) being the main consumers. The U.S. consumption is concentrated in high-tech fields (80%), while China's is primarily in traditional sectors (89%) [2][25] - By 2025, China's cesium demand is expected to reach 1,016 tons, a 27% increase from 2020, driven by advancements in atomic clocks and ion thrusters alongside the development of 5G and aerospace [2][36] - The global cesium and rubidium salt demand is projected to grow from 2,466 tons in 2025 to 4,600 tons in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% [9][50] Group 3 - The supply side is dominated by leading companies, with Zhongmin Resources controlling over 80% of global cesium lepidolite resources. By Q3 2025, the total production capacity is expected to reach 1,500 tons, accounting for over 50% of global capacity [3][10] - The global supply of cesium and rubidium salts is expected to be 2,210 tons in 2025, 3,135 tons in 2026, and 4,550 tons in 2027, indicating a gradual narrowing of the supply-demand gap [10][50] - The report recommends companies such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy as key players in the cesium and rubidium industry [11][56]

Core Viewpoint - The global cesium and rubidium salt market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply and demand expected to rise simultaneously. The supply side is driven by the expansion of cesium and rubidium salt production by companies like Zhongjin Resources and Jinyinhai, while demand is fueled by the upgrading of consumption structure and emerging applications in various sectors [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The projected global supply of cesium and rubidium salts from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 2210 tons, 3135 tons, and 4550 tons respectively, while demand is forecasted to be 2446 tons, 3166 tons, and 4600 tons, indicating a supply-demand imbalance of -256 tons, -30 tons, and -50 tons for the respective years [1]. - The supply of rubidium is currently limited, with a global production cap of no more than 40 tons in 2024, which constrains market demand and application development [2][5]. Consumption Structure - In 2020, the global cesium consumption was 2400 tons, with the United States (960 tons, 40%), China (800 tons, 33%), and Japan (300 tons, 14%) being the top consumers. The U.S. primarily uses cesium in high-tech sectors, while China's consumption is still heavily weighted towards traditional applications [2]. - The demand for cesium in China is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a total demand of 1016 tons by 2025, a 27% increase from 2020 [3]. Emerging Demand Drivers - The demand for cesium and rubidium salts is expected to surge due to new applications such as perovskite solar cells, with a projected increase in demand from 110 tons in 2025 to 4428 tons by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 109% [4]. - The improvement in rubidium supply and its application in high-tech fields is anticipated to significantly boost rubidium market demand, with its consumption expected to rise from 40 tons in 2025 to 984 tons by 2027 [5]. Growth Projections - The total demand for cesium and rubidium salts is projected to grow from 2466 tons in 2025 to 4600 tons in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 36.6% [5]. - The increase in demand is attributed to three main factors: upgrading of existing consumption structures, emerging demands from new technologies, and improvements in rubidium supply [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the rare metal industry, specifically focusing on cesium and rubidium resources, indicating a favorable investment environment [3]. Core Insights - The global demand for cesium and rubidium salts is expected to continue increasing, driven by improvements in consumption structure and emerging demands, particularly in high-tech applications and new energy sectors [7][8]. - The report highlights that the cesium and rubidium market is entering a rapid expansion phase, with supply and demand expected to rise simultaneously [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cesium and Rubidium: Unique Properties and Applications - Cesium (Cs) is a rare light metal with unique physical and chemical properties, making it valuable in various applications, including electronics, catalysts, and medical diagnostics [5][24]. - Rubidium (Rb) is even rarer than cesium, primarily produced as a byproduct of lithium and cesium mining, and shares similar applications [19][24]. 2. Global Demand for Cesium and Rubidium Salts - Global cesium consumption in 2020 was 2,400 tons, with the US, China, and Japan being the top consumers [6][28]. - The demand for cesium in China is projected to reach 1,016 tons by 2025, a 27% increase from 2020, driven by advancements in high-tech applications [38][39]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.7% for global cesium and rubidium salt demand from 2025 to 2027 [8][54]. 3. Recommended Companies - Zhongkuang Resources is identified as a leading player in the cesium and rubidium sector, controlling over 80% of global cesium resources and possessing significant production capabilities [57][58]. - Jinyin Galaxy is also mentioned as a key company in the industry, contributing to the expansion of cesium and rubidium salt production [57].

本期编辑 | 分析师：刘嘉玮 | | | --- | --- | | 010-66554043 | liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519050001 | 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002074.SZ | 国轩高科 | | 002850.SZ | 科达利 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 600012.SH | 皖通高速 | | 600176.SH | 中国巨石 | | 605123.SH | 派克新材 | | 688103.SH | 国力电子 | | 688111.SH | 金山办公 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 数据来源：《十月金股汇》 2025 年 09 月 29 日，东兴证券研究所 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 1. 央行 9 月 23 日召开 ...

Core Insights - The global cesium and rubidium resources are rare and concentrated, with significant applications in various high-tech fields [2][3][8] - The supply of cesium and rubidium salts is rigid, with a notable market share held by Zhongjin Resources [4][5][9] Group 1: Resource Availability - As of 2020, global cesium ore reserves were approximately 220,000 tons, primarily located in Canada (120,000 tons, 55%), Zimbabwe (60,000 tons, 28%), Namibia (30,000 tons, 14%), and Australia (7,100 tons, 3%) [3] - By 2024, global cesium mineral resources are reported to be less than 200,000 tons, mainly concentrated in Australia, Canada, Namibia, and China [3] - Global rubidium reserves are highly concentrated, with 102,000 tons reported in 2020 (excluding China), primarily in Namibia (50,000 tons, 49%), Zimbabwe (30,000 tons, 29%), and Canada (12,000 tons, 12%) [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global production of cesium and rubidium salts peaked in 2021 at 2,231 tons, but is projected to decline by 13.9% to 1,921 tons by 2024 [4][5] - Zhongjin Resources' production decreased from 993 tons in 2021 to 960 tons in 2024, yet its market share increased from 45% to approximately 50% [5] - The scarcity of available cesium and rubidium resources is driving a rigid supply, enhancing Zhongjin Resources' market position [5][9] Group 3: Pricing and Demand - The price of international rubidium has increased from 775 RMB per gram in 2020 to 900 RMB per gram in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.8% [6] - The average annual price increase for Zhongjin Resources' cesium and rubidium fine chemical products is projected to be 24% from 2022 to 2024 [6] - The limited supply of rubidium, which is produced as a byproduct of lithium and cesium extraction, is constraining market applications despite its similar demand profile to cesium [6][9] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Domestic companies are making progress in lithium mica cesium and rubidium extraction technologies, which is crucial for supply chain risk control and industry upgrades [7] - Jin Yinhe's low-temperature sulfuric acid method for lithium mica extraction is noted for its low energy consumption and high purity, significantly reducing extraction costs [7] - The projected annual production capacity for rubidium and cesium salts from Jin Yinhe is estimated to be 1,200-1,700 tons and 300-450 tons, respectively, enhancing the supply chain security for cesium and rubidium resources in China [7] Group 5: Future Supply Expansion - Global cesium and rubidium supply is expected to increase due to expansion plans by leading companies, with Zhongjin Resources set to boost its production capacity by 50% by 2025 [8][9] - The overall cesium supply is projected to rise from 1,881 tons in 2024 to 2,811 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 14%, while rubidium supply is expected to grow from 40 tons to 1,740 tons in the same period [9] - The demand for cesium and rubidium is anticipated to grow due to advancements in high-tech applications and emerging needs in new energy sectors [9]

Group 1: Medical Devices Industry - The cardiovascular medical device industry has significant growth potential, with the market for cardiac electrophysiology devices in China expected to grow from CNY 65.80 billion in 2021 to CNY 157.26 billion by 2025, and further to CNY 419.73 billion by 2032 [5][6] - The global market for cardiac rhythm management devices increased from USD 9.7 billion in 2016 to USD 10.6 billion in 2021, with a projected growth to USD 12.8 billion by 2030 [5] - The market for coronary artery disease devices in China is also expanding, with the number of patients expected to reach 31.67 million by 2030, and the market for aortic stent grafts projected to grow significantly [6][7] Group 2: AI Cooling Industry - The AI computing upgrade is driving innovation in cooling technologies, with liquid cooling expected to reduce data center energy consumption by 20%-30%, achieving a PUE below 1.2 [8][9] - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to reach USD 1.26 billion in the first half of 2024, with cold plate solutions currently dominating the market due to their maturity and lower infrastructure modification requirements [9][10] - The market for immersion cooling fluids is expected to grow, with silicone oil and fluorinated liquids being key players, although regulatory challenges may arise [10] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - Aojie Technology (688220.SH) is a leading player in the baseband chip market, with projected revenues of CNY 45.80 billion, CNY 57.35 billion, and CNY 70.72 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][13] - The company has a strong presence in both mobile baseband and IoT sectors, with significant growth expected in its ASIC business, which is anticipated to see multiple-fold growth by 2026 [12][14] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - Lifang Pharmaceutical (003020.SZ) is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 18.53 billion, CNY 22.93 billion, and CNY 27.37 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a strong growth trajectory driven by its unique traditional Chinese medicine products [16][17] - The company is set to launch its first generic version of methylphenidate extended-release tablets in April 2025, targeting a large ADHD market in China [17] Group 5: Beverage Industry - IFBH (6603.HK) is positioned to capture a significant share of the coconut water market in China, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 55% from 2019 to 2025 [19][20] - The company has established a strong brand presence and is leveraging its supply chain advantages to maintain a competitive edge in the market [20] Group 6: Nonferrous Metals Industry - Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 6.03 billion, CNY 12.72 billion, and CNY 22.64 billion from 2025 to 2027, driven by its high-margin cesium and rubidium salt business [22][23] - The company is strategically expanding its copper business, which is expected to provide significant growth potential as demand for copper increases [23][24] Group 7: Aerospace Industry - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to reach a turning point with increased satellite launches and the development of reusable rockets, which are critical for the growth of satellite internet [29][30] - Companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology are making significant advancements in rocket technology, with planned launches that could enhance China's capabilities in commercial space [30][31]

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 09 月 26 日 中矿资源 (002738) | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,364 | 3,267 | 6,150 | 7,795 | 10,168 | | 同比增长率（%） | -10.8 | 34.9 | 14.7 | 26.7 | 30.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 757 | 89 | 445 | 1,063 | 1,733 | | 同比增长率（%） | -65.7 | -81.2 | -41.3 | 139.1 | 63.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.05 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 1.47 | 2.40 | | 毛利率（%） | 32.8 | 18.0 | 20.7 | 29.4 | 34.3 | | ROE（%） | 6.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 12.1 | | 市盈率 | 41 | | 71 | 30 | 18 | 注： "净资产收益率"是指摊 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 H1 financial results, showing significant revenue growth but a sharp decline in net profit [1] Financial Performance - In 2025 H1, the company achieved revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 81.2%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 10 million yuan, down 98.3% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, the revenue was 1.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -50 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items of -40 million yuan [1] Business Segments - The cesium and rubidium segment reported revenue of 710 million yuan in 2025 H1, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%, with a gross profit of 510 million yuan, also up 50.2%. The fine chemicals segment generated revenue of 410 million yuan, up 24.9%, and a gross profit of 310 million yuan, up 26.6%. The cesium formate segment saw revenue of 300 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 107.6%, with a gross profit of 200 million yuan, up 110.6% [2] - Lithium salt sales slightly increased, with self-supplied lithium salt sales reaching 18,000 tons, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%. However, the average price of domestic lithium carbonate fell to approximately 70,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32.5% year-on-year, leading to a gross margin of only 10.9%, down 24.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] Operational Challenges - The copper smelting segment faced significant pressure due to a global shortage of copper concentrate, resulting in a substantial decline in processing fees and a loss of approximately 200 million yuan from the Namibia smelting business. The company plans to implement cost-cutting measures and shut down copper smelting lines to mitigate losses [3] - The company is advancing its copper and gallium-germanium smelting projects, with the Zambia Kitumba copper mine having a resource of 27.9 million tons and an average grade of 2.2% copper [3][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the cesium and rubidium business, with projected net profits of 530 million yuan, 1.32 billion yuan, and 1.98 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively. The corresponding EPS is estimated to be 0.73, 1.83, and 2.74 yuan per share, with PE ratios of 57, 23, and 15 times [5]